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October 24, 2020, 01:20:43 AM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  FL-Emerson: Biden+3
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Author Topic: FL-Emerson: Biden+3  (Read 870 times)
Biden +3 in Texas
dfwlibertylover
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« on: October 12, 2020, 07:00:16 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2020, 07:01:27 PM »

Memerson
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2020, 07:01:41 PM »

Biden at 50%! Could Emerson be the Florida whisperer we've all been looking for?
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Buzz
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2020, 07:01:52 PM »

Close enough and just makes it easier to cash in on Predictit =)
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darthpi
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2020, 07:02:33 PM »

I'll take it, given that it's Emerson.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2020, 07:06:56 PM »

N=690LV
MOE:3.7%
Conducted October 10-12
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2020, 07:10:40 PM »

This is the best he could do here.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2020, 07:12:35 PM »

Close enough and just makes it easier to cash in on Predictit =)

You're very confident FL will go to Trump lol
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2020, 07:17:54 PM »

With leaners, it's Biden +2% pre-rounding.

Biden 51%
Trump 48%
Someone else 1%
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Da2017
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2020, 07:20:47 PM »

50 or more is where Biden needs to be. Glad to see it. Close for comfort,but it's Florida. I see it being decided by 5 points or less.
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TC 25
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2020, 07:37:22 PM »

Last 26 polls in Florida in 2016;  Clinton led 17, Trump 7, 2 tied.
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yanebot
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2020, 07:37:29 PM »

Thank u mr. bloomberg
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ηєω яσηтιєя
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2020, 07:37:50 PM »

I'll take it, given that it's Emerson.
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yanebot
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2020, 07:38:39 PM »

Last 26 polls in Florida in 2016;  Clinton led 17, Trump 7, 2 tied.


2020 is not 2016. Lol.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2020, 07:45:42 PM »

PALM BEACH JOE !
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Hammy
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2020, 07:55:36 PM »

Last 26 polls in Florida in 2016;  Clinton led 17, Trump 7, 2 tied.



The polling average is all that matters.  Hillary's peak was never as high as Biden's, and the race was more volatile in 2016.

That said the race is still a tossup, and I think Trump/Biden chances are about even--and the final vote is going to be close to even as well.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2020, 08:05:33 PM »


This is tiring, for reasons I've laid out elsewhere. But again, a reasonable poll, given that this is Florida.
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2020, 08:15:06 PM »

How are the iguanas in South Florida voting?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2020, 08:33:30 PM »

Biden back above 300 in the Atlas polling map, now that that disgusting Insider Advantage poll has dropped off.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2020, 08:40:07 PM »


This is tiring, for reasons I've laid out elsewhere. But again, a reasonable poll, given that this is Florida.

It doesn't matter what the result is if the data is junk. I called last week's Biden +10 poll in MI last week junk too.
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kireev
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2020, 08:51:58 PM »

The sample is too white: 73%. There is pretty much no way the share of whites is going to be higher than 70%. And they keep making the same silly methodological error: the share of new voters is only 4.4%. It's almost impossible to have such a low share of new voters considering the 18-22 year olds, old folks dying in 4 years and some 2016 voters not voting this year for whatever reason. I am not even mentioning that the turnout this year is going to be higher.  In FL even the 2018 turnout almost matched the 2016 turnout.
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Arlington County Moderate 4 Trump (Against Bernie)
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2020, 09:21:25 PM »

Theyre off by 3.1225092751964 points, give or take .0000000000001 points.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2020, 09:23:29 PM »


This is tiring, for reasons I've laid out elsewhere. But again, a reasonable poll, given that this is Florida.

It doesn't matter what the result is if the data is junk. I called last week's Biden +10 poll in MI last week junk too.

But I see this every time there is an Emerson poll posted. As I've said elsewhere, I don't understand the dislike for it.
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Hammy
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« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2020, 10:00:25 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2020, 10:06:04 PM by Hammy »


This is tiring, for reasons I've laid out elsewhere. But again, a reasonable poll, given that this is Florida.

It doesn't matter what the result is if the data is junk. I called last week's Biden +10 poll in MI last week junk too.

But I see this every time there is an Emerson poll posted. As I've said elsewhere, I don't understand the dislike for it.

MTurk is used for Emerson polling. The problem is with their data collection method:

https://blog.prolific.co/stop-using-mturk-for-research/

Quote
Last year, the quality of data collected via MTurk plummeted, all of a sudden. Researchers found that the percentage of poor respondents in MTurk surveys had drastically increased between 2013 and 2018in some cases up to 25% of respondents were found to be suspicious or fraudulent.

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Orser67
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2020, 10:13:30 PM »

The fact that Democrats probably don't need to win FL is just a huge relief.
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