How much will John James overperform President Trump?
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  How much will John James overperform President Trump?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: How much will John James overperform President Trump?  (Read 904 times)
Woody
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« on: October 12, 2020, 12:58:01 PM »
I think it is beyond the obvious now that James will most likely overperform Trump, the question is, by how much?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2020, 12:58:30 PM »
2 points, Biden +5, Peters +3.
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Ljube
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2020, 01:00:49 PM »
He will surely overperform Trump. Minimum 2 points, but could be as much as 4 points.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2020, 01:09:04 PM »
2 to 3 pts at best
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2020, 01:10:13 PM »
2% or so, but Biden wins MI by enough to save Peters
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2020, 01:29:36 PM »
Nice try, I am inevitable.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2020, 01:32:03 PM »
Biden and Peters will win by 4, that's how much Kerry won the state by in 2004, Cook PVI has MI plus 3-4
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WD
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2020, 01:34:39 PM »
2-3. Biden+7, Peters+5
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2020, 01:47:59 PM »
Probably not by more than 3 points or so, given straight-ticket voting, but if the election is closer than expected, that could be enough to cause a Biden/James split. I don't buy that James can win if Biden is winning Michigan by mid-high single digits, though.

It's kind of funny, some Republicans insist that Peters will overperform Biden by a significant margin while Tillis can't possibly underperform Trump, not by more than a fraction of a percent, and Democrats insist (or at least use to insist) the exact opposite. I guess for some, incumbents can only underperform the top of the ticket when they personally want the incumbent to, and ticket-splitting only happens in a way that said poster personally likes.

My current Michigan prediction is Biden +6 and Peters +4, both Lean D, the former closer to Likely D and the latter closer to Tilt D.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2020, 01:53:25 PM »
Hopefully this is not a dumb question, but why is Peters underperforming Biden? I always thought John James was one of the overrated candidates ever. Like the GOP's Beto O'Rourke.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2020, 02:31:06 PM »
Quote from: Lemme tell you how Bernie can still win in 2016 & 2020 on October 12, 2020, 01:53:25 PM
Hopefully this is not a dumb question, but why is Peters underperforming Biden? I always thought John James was one of the overrated candidates ever. Like the GOP's Beto O'Rourke.

In a large state like MI, incumbency isn’t worth much
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2020, 03:03:22 PM »
5-6 points.

Biden+9

Peters+3/4
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2020, 03:09:42 PM »
Biden +8
Peters +10

John James is no match for my motorcycles and beard
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2020, 03:52:20 PM »
Probably by about 10%. I was right that John James is gonna win!
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2020, 03:53:27 PM »
Quote from: MATTROSE94 on October 12, 2020, 03:52:20 PM
Probably by about 10%. I was right that John James is gonna win!

10% seems quite high in a state as highly polarized as MI. Bollier prolly won't even outperform Biden by that much in what is a state with a 3 party system essentially.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2020, 04:03:46 PM »
If anyone actually thinks 10% they're delusional beyond saving

3% at best
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