NY Times/Siena: Biden +10 WI; +8 MI

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This election is rapidly approaching the point of no return.

[Crumpets]

Are these the devastating polls we were waiting for?

No, he said that they were still in the field yesterday.

Then how does he know they'll be devastating? Was the sample size at 250 when he saw it or something?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm about to ready to call Wisconsin Likely D.

[Gass3268]

Whoa... this poll has Biden WINNING WOW by 3!

This includes the non-City of Milwaukee municipalities in Milwaukee County.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

This is great but that MI Senate poll is horrifying

[Wiz in Wis]

Whoa... this poll has Biden WINNING WOW by 3!

This includes the non-City of Milwaukee municipalities in Milwaukee County.

Still... that's a huge swing to Biden.

[Brittain33]

Huge undecideds. They can’t really be that high.

[Devils30]

I think this poll got a weird sample in MI, weird education breakdown with whites but the topline seems okay.

[Gass3268]

Whoa... this poll has Biden WINNING WOW by 3!

This includes the non-City of Milwaukee municipalities in Milwaukee County.

Still... that's a huge swing to Biden.

I need to see it before I can believe it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I don't know why my last post isn't showing up, so I suppose it bears repeating: This election is rapidly approaching the point of no return.

Edit: Aaaaaaand now it's back.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't know why my last post isn't showing up, so I suppose it bears repeating: This election is rapidly approaching the point of no return.

Forum is being wonky right now.

[Don Blankenship]

If Biden and John James both win, then we have our 2024 nominee.

[redjohn]

WI and MI are likely Biden. Trump's not going to be able to net enough votes in rural WI to make up for Biden's margins in the cities (and suburbs).

[Wiz in Wis]

Whoa... this poll has Biden WINNING WOW by 3!

This includes the non-City of Milwaukee municipalities in Milwaukee County.

Still... that's a huge swing to Biden.

I need to see it before I can believe it.

Oh, I agree, I am skeptical. That would be a significant improvement from Biden vs Baldwin in 2018. I mean, Biden would have to win EVERY MKE CTY suburb (including Franklin), Waukesha City, Mequon, Menominee Falls, Brookfield/Elm Grove, and New Berlin to "win" the MKE burbs with the rest of WOW. Plus, he'd have to be winning Wauwatosa/West Allis/North Side 70/30.

If that happened? Wisconsin would become Virginia overnight.

[It’s so Joever]

I. AM. INEVITABLE.

[ExSky]

Terrible numbers for the President, yet I find myself still optimistic.

Splitting is a common coping technique.

[It’s so Joever]

Looks increasingly absurd to say MI is definitely gonna vote to the left ot WI.

Yeah, even before this polling, I actually did always think MI would vote right of the other two.
Wisconsin has a ton of suburban room for Biden to grow and it has recently had a Covid spike which just hurts Trump. Pennsylvania is just a demographic time-bomb for the GOP. As SEPA and Pittsburgh grow, the GOP coalition needs to expand (which they won’t)

I do think Biden will win Michigan, but it will be closer than anyone thought and it will be one of the surprises this election.

[redjohn]

Whoa... this poll has Biden WINNING WOW by 3!

This includes the non-City of Milwaukee municipalities in Milwaukee County.

Still... that's a huge swing to Biden.

I need to see it before I can believe it.

Oh, I agree, I am skeptical. That would be a significant improvement from Biden vs Baldwin in 2018. I mean, Biden would have to win EVERY MKE CTY suburb (including Franklin), Waukesha City, Mequon, Menominee Falls, Brookfield/Elm Grove, and New Berlin to "win" the MKE burbs with the rest of WOW. Plus, he'd have to be winning Wauwatosa/West Allis/North Side 70/30.

If that happened? Wisconsin would become Virginia overnight.

It's not happening. I expect these numbers in some of the 'burbs (which are quite rosy for Biden):

Waukesha: Trump 52%, Biden 47%
New Berlin: Trump 58%, Biden 41%
Brookfield: Trump 54%, Biden 45%
Menomonee Falls: Trump 55%, Biden 44%

Waukesha county-wide result:
Trump 151,807 (59%)
Biden 100,347 (39%)

Baldwin won by 11 statewide and still lost the city of Waukesha by 5. Most of these areas will trend D, but not enough to tip them over unless Biden is winning statewide by 15+.

[Skye]

On par with national polls.

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn even said on Twitter that it's likely this may be a GOP-heavy sample for Michigan.

Not to mention, for whatever reason he keeps on getting a GOP lead in Party ID for all of these states when that's not the case in reality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nate Cohn even said on Twitter that it's likely this may be a GOP-heavy sample for Michigan.

Not to mention, for whatever reason he keeps on getting a GOP lead in Party ID for all of these states when that's not the case in reality.

Mi is always a swing state due to McComb county is likely R county and believes in gun ownership and right to carry and don't believe in shutdown, that's why MI is a Tossup/Tilt D, not likely D state

[Adam Griffin]

Irrespective of youngs/independents/etc, the poll clearly identified the two MI Senate candidates as "the Democrat" and "the Republican", so it's Deeply Disturbing (self-ID notwithstanding).

On the other hand, 538/Siena's polls always have a metric s[inks]t-ton of undecideds & 3Pers relative to most other pollsters, so it could simply be a byproduct of that.

[Badger]

Whoa... this poll has Biden WINNING WOW by 3!

That's not realistic. While I expect there will be a substantial shift in those counties oh, that would probably explain Biden's lead being  somewhat inflated.

Still, I continue to be impressed as to how Wisconsin, supposedly the toughest nut to crack and Tipping Point State for this election, consistently has Biden leading by a substantial margin, consistently more than Pennsylvania even

[Hammy]

Nate Cohn even said on Twitter that it's likely this may be a GOP-heavy sample for Michigan.

Not to mention, for whatever reason he keeps on getting a GOP lead in Party ID for all of these states when that's not the case in reality.

That's even worse for Trump if that's the case.

[Progressive Pessimist]

When it comes to expectations of Wisconsin this year, to quote 'Prometheus:' "We were wrong! We were so, so wrong!"