MT-PPP: Tied at 48% (user search)
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  MT-PPP: Tied at 48% (search mode)
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Author Topic: MT-PPP: Tied at 48%  (Read 2393 times)
Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,317
United States


« on: October 12, 2020, 02:55:40 PM »

90% of undecideds supported Trump for president in 2016. Sticking with my Daines +2-3 prediction.
Undecideds are disproportionately non-white and disproportionately independent. This looks like a real nail-biter.

Lol, your analysis is pretty different from mine.  Smiley Just keep in mind that non-whites make up a very small percentage of the electorate in Montana (just 9%).

Yeah, I hate to say it but the crosstabs show not a single undecided voter having voted for Hillary Clinton four years ago. Basically we're dealing with 7% of 2016 Trump voters who are undecided, plus 4% of those who voted third party or didn't vote,

Granted, a lot can be off with such a small sub sample size, but if we take it at face value fwiw oh, that's not encouraging news for Bullock
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