Why Did Trump Win 18-24 Age Group in MN and WI?

[H. Ross Peron]

According to CNN exit polling (https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls)

Minnesota:
18-24: 48-43% Trump
25-29: 47-36% Clinton
30-39: 52-38% Clinton

Wisconsin:
18-24: 45-43% Trump
25-29: 51-42% Clinton
30-39: 57-36% Clinton

However this does not show up in other states that had high concentrations of Obama/Trump voters

Iowa:
18-24: 48-39% Clinton
25-29: 58-34% Trump
30-39: 49-39% Trump

Michigan:
18-24: 58-35% Clinton
25-29: 55-33% Clinton
30-39: 46-45% Trump

Pennsylvania:
18-24: 50-45% Clinton
25-29: 53-40% Clinton
30-39: 54-40% Clinton

Are these simply polling anomalies or are there unique factors in making Minnesota and Wisconsin late Millennials significantly more conservative compared to those of other states?

[TML]

If I had to guess, it probably reflects decreased turnout overall among this age group (compared to Obama). Trump voters were more enthusiastic about supporting their candidate, so it shouldn't be too surprising that those who did turn out were more pro-Trump than expected.

[SevenEleven]

Statistical noise.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Statistical noise.

This is the most likely explanation, yes.

[tagimaucia]

He probably didn't, and exit polls are just not very high quality, especially in small subsamples of states.

[Hope For A New Era]

1. Exit polls bad

2. Look at the low percentages. Clear signal of third-party voting.

3. Turnout dynamics. If you polled 100% of 18-24-year-olds in MN and WI, Clinton would have won easily.