CBS: Biden +6% in MI and NV; tied in IA

[wbrocks67]

Again, Biden polling at about 6% in NV to me, based on NV's history, is pretty damn great and suggests the likely outcome is closer to 8-10 based on the polling history there. Which would closely line up with Fox's +11 result.

Online pollsters have seemed to have Michigan a bit closer (6-ish) than the high quality pollsters (8/9). IA confirmed again to be a total tossup.

[wbrocks67]

Michigan will vote at least 8 points to the left of Iowa

Interestingly enough, Biden is +8 on the first ballot test in Michigan. It falls to +6 though with leaners pushed.

[wbrocks67]

Numbers are much more indicative of a 7-8 point national lead vs the double digits we are seeing.

Eh, not really. Trump won IA by 9.5% in 2016, IA would represent a 9.5% shift from 2016 (Biden +11 then), while Michigan, depending on the leaner model, is a 7-9% shift from 2016, which would be Biden +10 to +12 then. And then if you assume NV is really like Biden +9 given their polling errors, that would be a 7pt shift, for Biden +9 then.

So these essentially show a Biden +9-12 race nationally... which it is.

[wbrocks67]

Numbers are much more indicative of a 7-8 point national lead vs the double digits we are seeing.

Eh, not really. Trump won IA by 9.5% in 2016, IA would represent a 9.5% shift from 2016 (Biden +11 then), while Michigan, depending on the leaner model, is a 7-9% shift from 2016, which would be Biden +10 to +12 then. And then if you assume NV is really like Biden +9 given their polling errors, that would be a 7pt shift, for Biden +9 then.

So these essentially show a Biden +9-12 race nationally... which it is.

The words essentially and assuming were used far too often in your response to take it seriously.

The data doesn't lie.

IA: 9.5% shift towards Biden. Clinton won by 2% nationally in 2016. That would give Biden +11.5 nationally.
MI: 7-9% shift towards Biden. Clinton won by 2% nationally in 2016. That would give Biden +9-11 nationally
NV: 4% shift towards Biden. Clinton won by 2% nationally in 2016. That would give Biden +6 nationally, though based on NV's polling errors, could easily be Biden +8-9. But that one is the most wonky of the group.

Is that easier for you to comprehend?

[wbrocks67]

With what the national polls are showing, we should eventually see some state polls that look like Obama 2008 in the Midwest.  Weird that it hasn't happened yet. 

There have been 0 high quality midwest polls since PA/MI early-to-mid last week. And for what it's worth, the two PA polls did show that.