CBS: Biden +6% in MI and NV; tied in IA
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  CBS: Biden +6% in MI and NV; tied in IA
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Author Topic: CBS: Biden +6% in MI and NV; tied in IA  (Read 2136 times)
JRP1994
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« on: October 11, 2020, 09:32:25 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2020, 09:34:02 AM »

Again, Biden polling at about 6% in NV to me, based on NV's history, is pretty damn great and suggests the likely outcome is closer to 8-10 based on the polling history there. Which would closely line up with Fox's +11 result.

Online pollsters have seemed to have Michigan a bit closer (6-ish) than the high quality pollsters (8/9). IA confirmed again to be a total tossup.
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kph14
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2020, 09:34:48 AM »

Michigan will vote at least 8 points to the left of Iowa
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2020, 09:39:05 AM »

You can hear the wind whisper through the rolling Iowa prairie grass - “Joe! Joe! Joe!”
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2020, 09:48:38 AM »

Michigan will vote at least 8 points to the left of Iowa

Interestingly enough, Biden is +8 on the first ballot test in Michigan. It falls to +6 though with leaners pushed.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2020, 09:52:30 AM »

You know things are pretty good when this is considered a pretty meh result for Uncle Joe.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2020, 09:57:32 AM »
« Edited: October 11, 2020, 10:11:31 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Polled by YouGov
October 6-9

IA
1035 likely voters
MoE: 3.5% for likely voters

Biden 49%
Trump 49%
Other third party 2%
Not sure 0%

MI
1190 likely voters
MoE: 3.3% for likely voters
Changes with July 21-24 poll

Biden 52% (+4)
Trump 46% (+4)
Other third party 2% (n/c from "Someone else/third party" at 2%)
Not sure 0% (-7)

Would not vote previously at 0%

NV
1036 likely voters
MoE: 4.1% for likely voters

Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Other third party 2%
Not sure 0%
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Old Man Willow
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2020, 10:05:25 AM »

So either NV polling is getting better or Biden is going to win it by an Obama 2008 margin.
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Buzz
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2020, 10:27:28 AM »

Numbers are much more indicative of a 7-8 point national lead vs the double digits we are seeing.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2020, 10:44:30 AM »

Numbers are much more indicative of a 7-8 point national lead vs the double digits we are seeing.

Eh, not really. Trump won IA by 9.5% in 2016, IA would represent a 9.5% shift from 2016 (Biden +11 then), while Michigan, depending on the leaner model, is a 7-9% shift from 2016, which would be Biden +10 to +12 then. And then if you assume NV is really like Biden +9 given their polling errors, that would be a 7pt shift, for Biden +9 then.

So these essentially show a Biden +9-12 race nationally... which it is.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2020, 10:46:33 AM »

McComb county will vote D, Gretchen Whitmer is popular and Synder already endorsed Biden
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2020, 10:49:21 AM »

McComb county will vote D, Gretchen Whitmer is popular and Synder already endorsed Biden
Synder is not popular with anybody
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Rand
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2020, 10:54:24 AM »

Numbers are much more indicative of a 7-8 point national lead vs the double digits we are seeing.

Splitting hairs. If we're mulling whether Biden wins by 7% or 12% then let's just accept that the man's going to win and move on to more important issues. Like what tie he should wear to his inauguration.
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Buzz
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2020, 10:54:30 AM »

Numbers are much more indicative of a 7-8 point national lead vs the double digits we are seeing.

Eh, not really. Trump won IA by 9.5% in 2016, IA would represent a 9.5% shift from 2016 (Biden +11 then), while Michigan, depending on the leaner model, is a 7-9% shift from 2016, which would be Biden +10 to +12 then. And then if you assume NV is really like Biden +9 given their polling errors, that would be a 7pt shift, for Biden +9 then.

So these essentially show a Biden +9-12 race nationally... which it is.
The words essentially and assuming were used far too often in your response to take it seriously.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2020, 10:59:52 AM »

Numbers are much more indicative of a 7-8 point national lead vs the double digits we are seeing.

Eh, not really. Trump won IA by 9.5% in 2016, IA would represent a 9.5% shift from 2016 (Biden +11 then), while Michigan, depending on the leaner model, is a 7-9% shift from 2016, which would be Biden +10 to +12 then. And then if you assume NV is really like Biden +9 given their polling errors, that would be a 7pt shift, for Biden +9 then.

So these essentially show a Biden +9-12 race nationally... which it is.
The words essentially and assuming were used far too often in your response to take it seriously.

The data doesn't lie.

IA: 9.5% shift towards Biden. Clinton won by 2% nationally in 2016. That would give Biden +11.5 nationally.
MI: 7-9% shift towards Biden. Clinton won by 2% nationally in 2016. That would give Biden +9-11 nationally
NV: 4% shift towards Biden. Clinton won by 2% nationally in 2016. That would give Biden +6 nationally, though based on NV's polling errors, could easily be Biden +8-9. But that one is the most wonky of the group.

Is that easier for you to comprehend?
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Figueira
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2020, 11:11:12 AM »

A little closer than ideal in Michigan and Nevada; pretty decent for Iowa though.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2020, 11:26:05 AM »

A little closer than ideal in Michigan and Nevada; pretty decent for Iowa though.
The NV margin is exactly the same as Obama 2012. Also, most polls tend to underestimate Democratic support in NV.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2020, 11:27:18 AM »

With what the national polls are showing, we should eventually see some state polls that look like Obama 2008 in the Midwest.  Weird that it hasn't happened yet. 
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2020, 11:33:20 AM »

Ijoewa!

Gotta love that elasticity.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2020, 12:12:27 PM »

With what the national polls are showing, we should eventually see some state polls that look like Obama 2008 in the Midwest.  Weird that it hasn't happened yet. 

There have been 0 high quality midwest polls since PA/MI early-to-mid last week. And for what it's worth, the two PA polls did show that.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2020, 05:32:16 PM »

Weird poll: the Michigan result is slightly disappointing, Nevada looks about right, and Biden being tied in Iowa is actually really good.
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AGA
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2020, 06:02:38 PM »

I believe it. Also glad to see Biden above 50% in MI and NV.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2020, 03:12:21 AM »

New Poll: Iowa President by YouGov on 2020-10-09

Summary: D: 49%, R: 49%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2020, 03:14:38 AM »

New Poll: Michigan President by YouGov on 2020-10-09

Summary: D: 52%, R: 46%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2020, 03:16:28 AM »

New Poll: Nevada President by YouGov on 2020-10-09

Summary: D: 52%, R: 46%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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