IN (GOP internals): Trump up 6-8

[Tender Branson]

The last CBS Battleground Tracking Poll had President Trump with a 10% lead in Indiana, 54-44% in late September.

But Indiana Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer declined to release polling information on the Trump/Biden race Wednesday after revealing gubernatorial numbers (Gov. Eric Holcomb at 60%, Democrat Woody Myers at 21% and Libertarian Donald Rainwater at 6%).

Asked if Holcomb out-performs Trump, Hupfer said, “It’s too early to tell. It’s certainly a possibility.”

(...)

Republican sources tell me that while Trump won’t carry Indiana by the 19% he did in 2016, he’ll likely come in with a 6% to 8% plurality.

https://www.kpcnews.com/columnists/article_a01ae304-bf7a-59ec-9b71-7c5f708de9c9.html

Let’s see what that SurveyUSA poll shows on Wednesday ...

[soundchaser]

Well, if Indiana’s that close (color me skeptical), the 413 map is not out of the question.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

[TheLaRocca]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

What is happening then? Is he just collapsing completely in white educated suburbia? That's the only explanation if this is real.

[Buzz]

I have a lot to say about how off this will be, but I don't want my good friend GeorgiaModerate getting mad at me for ripping apart polls so I will abstain =)

[Gass3268]

I have a lot to say about how off this will be, but I don't want my good friend GeorgiaModerate getting mad at me for ripping apart polls so I will abstain =)

This situation feels like the local party crying for money.

[Bootes Void]

Missouri had the same type of leads of Trump +5 or so, I was always wondering if Indiana had the same as well considering those two states almost have voted the same way and are very fairly similar demographically, culturally and geographically

[forza nocta]

Trump will carry IN by ~10-12

[TheLaRocca]

Missouri had the same type of leads of Trump +5 or so, I was always wondering if Indiana had the same as well considering those two states almost have voted the same way and are very fairly demographically, culturally and geographically

So let's say this is happening (I'm skeptical) where is it occurring?

I guess he would just be collapsing in educated white suburbia?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

What is happening then? Is he just collapsing completely in white educated suburbia? That's the only explanation if this is real.

Also probably losing ground with working class voters too, not to mention Seniors and White Catholics.

[Sbane]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

What is happening then? Is he just collapsing completely in white educated suburbia? That's the only explanation if this is real.

The polls seem to indicate Biden is re-creating the 2012 Obama coalition in the north and overperforming Clinton by about 5 points in the sun-belt. Whether that comes true or not we shall see.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

What is happening then? Is he just collapsing completely in white educated suburbia? That's the only explanation if this is real.

The polls seem to indicate Biden is re-creating the 2012 Obama coalition in the north and overperforming Clinton by about 5 points in the sun-belt. Whether that comes true or not we shall see.

Basically so, though tipped more towards educated suburbs and slightly less towards non-college rural voters then Obama, the overall picture is basically the same.

[TheLaRocca]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

What is happening then? Is he just collapsing completely in white educated suburbia? That's the only explanation if this is real.

The polls seem to indicate Biden is re-creating the 2012 Obama coalition in the north and overperforming Clinton by about 5 points in the sun-belt. Whether that comes true or not we shall see.

Basically so, though tipped more towards educated suburbs and slightly less towards non-college rural voters then Obama, the overall picture is basically the same.

Hard for me to buy after 2018.

Why would Trump underpreform basic Reagan conservatives (who outpreformed Romney heavily) among WWC voters in the midwest?

Def can see him doing worse with suburban middle class whites then 2018 republicans but harder for me to see with working class ones...

[NOVA Green]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

What is happening then? Is he just collapsing completely in white educated suburbia? That's the only explanation if this is real.

Also probably losing ground with working class voters too, not to mention Seniors and White Catholics.

This is the most plausible explanation.

Although this is a PUB internal and Pence is Veep, it is entirely plausibly based upon the preponderance of data presented thus far, that Indiana will likely be much closer than CW (Esp if OH is currently either a Tossup or Tilt-Trump State).

Really easy for many of y'all who have never lived in the Heartlands to make predictions and assumptions, not to mention opinions (You all know what they say about those)....

Biden will likely slightly underperform Obama numbers in the Midwest, while making up lost ground elsewhere in the sunbelt as well as safe DEM States in the West and Northeast.

[OSR stands with Israel]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

What is happening then? Is he just collapsing completely in white educated suburbia? That's the only explanation if this is real.

The polls seem to indicate Biden is re-creating the 2012 Obama coalition in the north and overperforming Clinton by about 5 points in the sun-belt. Whether that comes true or not we shall see.

Basically so, though tipped more towards educated suburbs and slightly less towards non-college rural voters then Obama, the overall picture is basically the same.

Hard for me to buy after 2018.

Why would Trump underpreform basic Reagan conservatives (who outpreformed Romney heavily) among WWC voters in the midwest?

Def can see him doing worse with suburban middle class whites then 2018 republicans but harder for me to see with working class ones...

In 2018 , 68% of Americans thought the economy was doing well and Trump would routinely have his approvals in the 60s on the issue of the economy as well, now its basically even which is a huge drop from 2018

[Crumpets]

Curious if the Vigo County-specific Biden doomers might have spoken too soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna win IN, Holcomb is not endangered, IN is a low tax state, due to heavy tax on casinos, lottery and gas, instead of high state and sales taxes

[Sbane]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

What is happening then? Is he just collapsing completely in white educated suburbia? That's the only explanation if this is real.

The polls seem to indicate Biden is re-creating the 2012 Obama coalition in the north and overperforming Clinton by about 5 points in the sun-belt. Whether that comes true or not we shall see.

Basically so, though tipped more towards educated suburbs and slightly less towards non-college rural voters then Obama, the overall picture is basically the same.

Hard for me to buy after 2018.

Why would Trump underpreform basic Reagan conservatives (who outpreformed Romney heavily) among WWC voters in the midwest?

Def can see him doing worse with suburban middle class whites then 2018 republicans but harder for me to see with working class ones...

Actually 2018 would seem to line up pretty well with current polls, though perhaps with more of a swing among suburbanites than 2018. I always thought Trump would do better than 2018 Republicans in the Midwest but polls are indicating otherwise. Larger swings among suburbanites may be canceling out any stronger performance by Trump among the WWC compared to 2018 Republicans. Or those expected swings among the WWC is not occurring due to COVID. Especially older WWC who swung hard towards Trump in 2016.

[pbrower2a]

In a century, Republicans nominees for President have not won when failing to win Indiana by double digits. Even the two elections in which they won despite getting less than a plurality of the popular vote (2000 and 2016), they won Indiana by double digits. 

This poll is very bad news for the GOP.

[Hope For A New Era]

And this is why I doubt the Missouri polls. Both states are Trump +8 until November 3 says otherwise.

[Kalimantan]

How much does Pence being on the ticket add to Trumps Indiana margin?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Christina Hale probably wins then

[GALeftist]

Yikes, that is a death knell for the Trump campaign if it's accurate.

[pbrower2a]

How much does Pence being on the ticket add to Trumps Indiana margin?

Not much. Voters pay far more attention to the Presidential choice than to the VP choice in most years. Of course we all have questions about the health of both Presidential nominees, so that may change things some.

Many of the rules that we used to think applied to recent elections do not apply this year.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A Republican as dependent on working class voters as Trump is not winning reelection, if he is only winning Indiana by 6% to 8%. That is worse than Romney's performance and he did much better with college educated whites at that.

What is happening then? Is he just collapsing completely in white educated suburbia? That's the only explanation if this is real.

I can tell you that Republicans are collapsing in white, educated greater Indy. At every level of government. The only thing that keeps Indiana safely red is all the WWC voters the GOP picked up over the last ten years. If educated while voters voted like they do now back in 2008, Obama would have won Indiana by 5 to 10 points.