October 10 - is this the current battleground?

[Non Swing Voter]

Basing this primarily off the polls and where the candidates are actually spending time and money.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems fair, though I would make TX tossup if you're considering NV a tossup.

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems fair, though I would make TX tossup if you're considering NV a tossup.

Struggled with that but Biden did recently pull out money from there.  I think it's going to be close but I feel like Biden just doesn't want to take the risk of investing in such a massive state.  OTOH Trump is actually spending more on ads in Nevada than Biden is.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seems fair, though I would make TX tossup if you're considering NV a tossup.

Struggled with that but Biden did recently pull out money from there.  I think it's going to be close but I feel like Biden just doesn't want to take the risk of investing in such a massive state.  OTOH Trump is actually spending more on ads in Nevada than Biden is.

Very true. It's just that TX polling shows Biden behind by about 2% on average (in a state where polling tends to underestimate Ds, not saying it will this time, but it's not like IA where polling tends to underestimate Rs) whereas in NV, Trump is losing by 6% in my polling average (Same is true in NV with polling). Furthermore; Trump isn't really spending money recently in TX either, so if Biden is winning by high single digits or double digits, it might just flip because of the national environment as well as longer term trends. I agree taht Trump is still favored in TX, but at this point, Biden at least has a decent chance

[BaldEagle1991]

TX not being a tossup state at the same time as GA in this map is blasphemy.

[Buzz]

Nevada probably isn't a battleground, but good map!

[redjohn]

Add TX and you're good. TX is more of a battleground than NV is, based on both trends and polling.

[Alben Barkley]

Honestly, there’s not much reason to think Wisconsin is more likely to vote Trump than Michigan at this point.

[BaldEagle1991]

Nevada probably isn't a battleground, but good map!

I'd say it is.

[Buzz]

Didn’t notice Michigan.  Michigan is also definitely in play.

[forza nocta]

If Michigan is blue on here, then Wisconsin should be too

[It’s so Joever]

Michigan is more of a Tossup than NV.

[Kuumo]

My map would be the same but with Nevada in blue and Michigan and Texas as battlegrounds.

[Non Swing Voter]

I just get the sense that Trump is giving up on Michigan.  For some reason, I also think the Gretchen Whitmer abduction conspiracy thing is the last nail in the coffin there for Trump. 

[Lord Admirale]

I just get the sense that Trump is giving up on Michigan.  For some reason, I also think the Gretchen Whitmer abduction conspiracy thing is the last nail in the coffin there for Trump. 

He's given up on ad spending iirc so that's a clear sign.

[Orser67]

If you're taking ad spending into account, MI and MN should definitely be counted as battlegrounds, and probably NH too.

Relevant article.

[SevenEleven]

Iowa, Florida, South Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Montana and Missouri.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden only is guaranteed 278 anyways

[Non Swing Voter]

Biden only is guaranteed 278 anyways

can't believe I missed this.

[GregTheGreat657]

Ohio and Iowa weren’t tossups, it’s just that polling there is off

[Non Swing Voter]

Ohio and Iowa weren’t tossups, it’s just that polling there is off

This is true and the main reason I think Dems were overconfident in 2020.  They started with a huge blue wall of states but what was considered the "competitive" group of states definitely had a GOP bent to it.  Iowa/Ohio were really right leaning and only marginally competitive.  Florida and Texas were a closer tier but not really that close.  The only big tier battleground that was fairly comfortable for Dems was Michigan.  Everything else was just hyper competitive.