I disagree, but interesting analysis nonetheless. I do agree with you in the short term, however.
Evangelicals are seen as too strict and connected to the political apparatus of the Republican Party
This is a major problem for Evangelicals. Evangelicalism can shake off that image, but it won't happen overnight. As America becomes less religious, the Republican Party is going to have to change to reflect that. And as time goes on, Americans hear less and less about Evangelicals on the news as the younger generation of Evangelicals is decidedly less political. At the same time, Evangelical Christianity becomes increasingly associated with immigrants living in big cities. Eventually, "Evangelical" loses most of its political connotations.
Catholic Church will be associated with sexual scandals for quite some time.
One thing that will be interesting to see is if the Vatican goes in a more liberal or more conservative direction. If it deicides to be more liberal, Eastern Orthodoxy will gain at the expense of Catholicism. Beyond that, I don't know how Catholicism will fare in the future.
With Islam, while I’m skeptical of it being relevant outside of diaspora of Islamic nations, the fact that it survived around 19 years of scrutiny and, with the Islamic population in the US being quite diverse; form a community and sense of solidarity among one another that cuts through nationality, language, ethnicity, and in a few scant liberal places even sexuality. The only thing barring it is rules on dress and diet, which is a big thing for many considering the importance of either shellfish or alcohol in American society.
Islam is an interesting case, because IMO much of the conventional wisdom on the future of religion is wrong when it comes to Islam. I actually think that Islam will experience a significant decline this century. There has been an increase in apostasy among Muslims in recent years, and surveys in several Islamic countries show that large percentages of the population in those countries don't actually believe in Islam (or any religion for that matter). I think Islam will grow in the United States, mostly due to immigration and high birthrates, but not by much.
I honestly doubt Eastern spiritual traditions be apart of this in any large measure, mainly due to the evisceration of such things among immigrants and their children. Unless there’s a serious nationalist push in the mother nation to shill for it, I doubt it revives anywhere but the surrounding diaspora.
I agree completely here.
Wicca and neopaganism is something I’m also skeptical about getting big. Wicca has a congregation (Coven?) problem in that a lot of their conversions now are through word of text, making it hard to organize. Furthermore, the Book of Shadows used by some is...less defensible than with other texts whom had time to develop before an age came about where collecting information was widely available. Neopaganism also suffers from a similar but different problem in that apologia is kind of skewed when it’s all Christian sources. Also the problem with the Volkish stuff and several sects barring people not from the “source” background.
Neopaganism would have a hard time gaining a significant foothold in the US due to American history. Americans are a mix of a lot of different ethnic backgrounds, its not like Norway where people could theoretically unite behind the Norse pantheon. One way I could see neopaganism being the majority in a country is if it was imposed by an ultra-nationalist government. But even that seems highly unlikely.
