GA-PPP: Biden +1

[TheTide]

This'll remain neck and neck for the next three weeks.

[Panda Express]

Recalled 2016 vote is Trump+4, very close to the actual Trump+5 result.

PPP has been weighing all of their polls this year to match the 2016 results. I think that's a good idea

[wbrocks67]

PPP has been very favorable to Biden this cycle.  Anybody trying to act like this state is leaning one way or another is fooling themselves.  I personally see Trump winning by Kemp margins, but this is a toss up if I’ve ever seen one.

PPP: Biden +1
538 polling average: Biden +0.8

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP has been very favorable to Biden this cycle.  Anybody trying to act like this state is leaning one way or another is fooling themselves.  I personally see Trump winning by Kemp margins, but this is a toss up if I’ve ever seen one.

I agree that it's a tossup.  I wake up one day thinking Trump has a slight edge in the state, the next day I think it's Biden.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

PPP has been very favorable to Biden this cycle.  Anybody trying to act like this state is leaning one way or another is fooling themselves.  I personally see Trump winning by Kemp margins, but this is a toss up if I’ve ever seen one.

I agree that it's a tossup.  I wake up one day thinking Trump has a slight edge in the state, the next day I think it's Biden.

I'm confident that Biden will beat Trump in Georgia. Biden will do slightly better in Georgia than he does in NC.

[DrScholl]

The most recent polls for Georgia have shown Biden getting between 25-31% of the white vote and if you average those numbers out it's 28%. Biden can win this.

[Kalimantan]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

I suppose the question is, with all that in mind why are 9% of black voters in GA still undecided?

[ExSky]

PPP has been very favorable to Biden this cycle.  Anybody trying to act like this state is leaning one way or another is fooling themselves.  I personally see Trump winning by Kemp margins, but this is a toss up if I’ve ever seen one.

PPP: Biden +1
538 polling average: Biden +0.8

Buzz says this about every poll That shows Trumps massive vulnerability. He’s been resigned to even backing trafalgar polls after saying that Quinnipiac was the equivalent of trafalgar as an insult. He’s that desperate now

[Horus]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

I was only referring to undecided black voters. And there's probably more social pressure to be anti Trump among college whites as well. Just as there's more pressure to be anti Biden among rural whites. Point being - if you're still undecided at this point, I would guess you lean towards the candidate most in your social group lean away from. That's literally all I meant.

[Horus]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

I suppose the question is, with all that in mind why are 9% of black voters in GA still undecided?

Because Trump has more appeal in the black community than most care to admit, especially here.

[roxas11]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

I suppose the question is, with all that in mind why are 9% of black voters in GA still undecided?

I suspect its because many of that 9% are probably just like my aunt

In 2016 she did not like trump but because she was a vey religious woman she ended up voting for him anyway. At first she was not going to vote at all but she ended being swayed by the very poplar evangelical pastors she watched on TV

It would not surprise me at all if at least some on that 9 percent felt the same way she did which is why they are still conflicted about about who they will vote for 

[DrScholl]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

I suppose the question is, with all that in mind why are 9% of black voters in GA still undecided?

Because Trump has more appeal in the black community than most care to admit, especially here.

Just like there is a picture of Biden naked with a woman that's going to be released? Just like Saccone was supposed to win by 8%? Go sit down with your trolling.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

I suppose the question is, with all that in mind why are 9% of black voters in GA still undecided?

Ignore everybody else. Trump has no appeal to the Black community down here. A lot of black people are undecided about choosing Biden and staying home.

[roxas11]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

I suppose the question is, with all that in mind why are 9% of black voters in GA still undecided?

Because Trump has more appeal in the black community than most care to admit, especially here.

Well if that is the case I have seen no evidence of it in the past 4 years and Im in a red state like Louisiana so if trump was getting growing black support I would have seen something by now

but so far not 1 single friend or family member has ever came up to me and said they now support Trump in 2020. Even my aunt who voted for him 2016 is not supporting him this time around

now as you said maybe GA is different but in Louisiana many black voters around here still don't like or support Trump

[Horus]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

I suppose the question is, with all that in mind why are 9% of black voters in GA still undecided?

Because Trump has more appeal in the black community than most care to admit, especially here.

Well if that is the case I have seen no evidence of it in the past 4 years and Im in a red state like Louisiana so if trump was getting growing black support I would have seen something by now

but so far not 1 single friend or family member has ever came up to me and said they now support Trump in 2020. Even my aunt who voted for him 2016 is not supporting him this time around

now as you said maybe GA is different but in Louisiana many black voters around here still don't like or support Trump

If you compare this week's Pew poll to their poll from exactly four years ago, black voters, even black women are one of the few groups Trump has improved with. I don't think there's some enormous secret black vote for trump, could even be a dead cat bounce, but it's there.

And as Kalimantan pointed out, if everything you say about Trump is true, and I believe that it is I hate the guy, why are 9% of Georgian black voters still undecided? social pressure is not something that is unique to the black community nor was I implying that it was, but because Trump is not popular in said community don't you agree that his supporters there might be a little less inclined to speak up? I believe what you've said about your family but that's only qualitative, if you're an outspoken Biden supporter, Trump supporters will probably be less likely to open up to you. that is something that is true across the country, people don't want to get in political arguments especially with those close to them.

My only point - don't assume that a pool of undecided voters strongly leans Biden just because that pool of voters is mostly not white. it is 3 weeks from the election and they're still undecided, obviously Trump's doing something to keep them interested.

[roxas11]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

I suppose the question is, with all that in mind why are 9% of black voters in GA still undecided?

Because Trump has more appeal in the black community than most care to admit, especially here.

Well if that is the case I have seen no evidence of it in the past 4 years and Im in a red state like Louisiana so if trump was getting growing black support I would have seen something by now

but so far not 1 single friend or family member has ever came up to me and said they now support Trump in 2020. Even my aunt who voted for him 2016 is not supporting him this time around

now as you said maybe GA is different but in Louisiana many black voters around here still don't like or support Trump

If you compare this week's Pew poll to their poll from exactly four years ago, black voters, even black women are one of the few groups Trump has improved with. I don't think there's some enormous secret black vote for trump, could even be a dead cat bounce, but it's there.

And as Kalimantan pointed out, if everything you say about Trump is true, and I believe that it is I hate the guy, why are 9% of Georgian black voters still undecided? social pressure is not something that is unique to the black community nor was I implying that it was, but because Trump is not popular in said community don't you agree that his supporters there might be a little less inclined to speak up? I believe what you've said about your family but that's only qualitative, if you're an outspoken Biden supporter, Trump supporters will probably be less likely to open up to you. that is something that is true across the country, people don't want to get in political arguments especially with those close to them.

My only point - don't assume that a pool of undecided voters strongly leans Biden just because that pool of voters is mostly not white. it is 3 weeks from the election and they're still undecided, obviously Trump's doing something to keep them interested.

You make a good point but in my case offline Im actually not some outspoken liberal or Biden supporter. Im a registered independent voter and admittedly more moderate when it comes to many issue ( Im definitely not a Bernie bro )

I have also never been the type to try to force my politics on anybody which I why my Trump supporting coworker's don't mind talking politics around me because they know im not the type to get upset or offended over something like that

finally trust me my family has never been shy about telling me how they really feel about politics or politicians nor do they care if I disagree with them or not lol

They are definitely not shy about anything especially when it comes to their feelings about Trump and the current Covid crisis

[Hammy]

Lean R.

It says "Biden" in the subject line.

It's a PPP poll sonny.

PPP over-polls GOP and under-polls Dems in TX/GA/AZ--if anything it has the same but less severe bias as Trafalgar there.

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

It's like you're completely ignoring that 2018 happened.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't 2016, this is 2020 and in 2018, D's won 40 House seats, D's will win again, just like they did in 2006/2008, 2018/2020 and Rs won 2014/2016

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yep, it's still a tossup. It definitely has potential to be the closest state this year

[Adam Griffin]

[pbrower2a]

PPP has been very favorable to Biden this cycle.  Anybody trying to act like this state is leaning one way or another is fooling themselves.  I personally see Trump winning by Kemp margins, but this is a toss up if I’ve ever seen one.

In the end it is usually the pollster who gets most closely to being right on who the electorate is ends up with the most correct poll. Trump obviously wins re-election with an electorate like those of 2010 or 2014. For the last five Presidential elections, demographics of the electorate in the sense of who votes and who does not tell everything. Only rarely does the electoral result show the utter failure of a nominee to achieve credibility.

If this election hinges entirely upon generational characteristics (older voters about 5% more R than D dying off and younger ones about 20% more D than R supplanting them, then Trump loses. If the margin is bigger than that, than something has happened that suggests a Trump failure.

[JA]

Georgia will be incredibly close whoever wins it and the future politics of the state favors whichever party appeals more to college educated and minority voters. As of now, I’m still not sure if Georgia will finally flip this election cycle. I’ll say it’s Tilt R.

[It’s so Joever]

Trump+2.4, let’s not be cocky here.

[MT Treasurer]

Biden probably wins GA by 1-2 points if I had to guess. Honestly, the fact that this 2018 map...



...only amounted to a <0.5-point Republican win should have scared the living daylights out of the GA Republican Party way before the election cycle got going and we got a clearer picture of the environment this year. This is one of those states where you don’t need a single poll to gauge how much trouble Republicans are in, and at this point I don’t think even a Kemp-level performance in rural/small-town GA saves Trump. If Biden's performance in those areas is closer to Clinton 2016 levels, the Democratic margin could be surprisingly wide.

It’s indeed recommendable to apply some "nuance" to trends-related arguments, but when the outlook is as singularly and unambiguously bleak as it for GA Republicans and has been since 2008, stating the inevitable/obvious isn’t equivalent to being "cocky."

[forsythvoter]

I'd call GA a pure tossup at this point. Kemp won by about 1.5% and there's likely been more erosion than that in Metro Atlanta (here in Forsyth County, the erosion is probably closer to 4-5% just based on changes in the voter population alone), plus I'm not sure Trump can replicate Kemp's numbers in the rest of GA, given he's running against someone considerably more moderate than Abrams was.

Biden probably wins GA by 1-2 points if I had to guess. Honestly, the fact that this 2018 map...



...only amounted to a <0.5-point Republican win should have scared the living daylights out of the GA Republican Party way before the election cycle got going and we got a clearer picture of the environment this year. This is one of those states where you don’t need a single poll to gauge how much trouble Republicans are in, and at this point I don’t think even a Kemp-level performance in rural/small-town GA saves Trump. If Biden's performance in those areas is closer to Clinton 2016 levels, the Democratic margin could be surprisingly wide.

It’s indeed recommendable to apply some "nuance" to trends-related arguments, but when the outlook is as singularly and unambiguously bleak as it for GA Republicans and has been since 2008, stating the inevitable/obvious isn’t equivalent to being "cocky."