GA-PPP: Biden +1

[VAR]

Biden 47%
Trump 46%

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/georgia-senate-races-look-runoff-bound/

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Biden getting 29% of whites (enough to win), plus 9% of blacks undecided vs 1% of whites. Sticking with my prediction of Biden +2-3

[VAR]

Trump’s vote share (46%) matches his approval rating (46%). Tilt D, Biden +1-2.

[Horus]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

[Podgy the Bear]

Turnout and getting the votes to count will be the key.  

As for comparing this year to 2016--far more Democratic presence for federal and state offices in metro Atlanta (city, suburbs, and exurbs).  You can even go to Hall County (73% vote for Trump) and see a few Biden signs in subdivisions.

But rural north Georgia has a sea of Trump and Perdue/Collins signs everywhere.

[Ljube]

Turnout and getting the votes to count will be the key.  

As for comparing this year to 2016--far more Democratic presence for federal and state offices in metro Atlanta (city, suburbs, and exurbs).  You can even go to Hall County (73% vote for Trump) and see a few Biden signs in subdivisions.

But rural north Georgia has a sea of Trump and Perdue/Collins signs everywhere.

Does this indicate that Trump/Collins are underrepresented in polls?
It doesn't need to be a big underrepresentation for both Trump and Collins to win by a small margin.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Recalled 2016 vote is Trump+4, very close to the actual Trump+5 result.

[MillennialModerate]

I’m not going to say it - but I’m thinking it.

[Inmate Trump]

Turnout and getting the votes to count will be the key.  

As for comparing this year to 2016--far more Democratic presence for federal and state offices in metro Atlanta (city, suburbs, and exurbs).  You can even go to Hall County (73% vote for Trump) and see a few Biden signs in subdivisions.

But rural north Georgia has a sea of Trump and Perdue/Collins signs everywhere.

Dawson County (80+% Trump in 2016)...I saw a Biden/Harris sign and a Joe Biden 2020 sign but both were gone within a day. I’m assuming someone stole them.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Turnout and getting the votes to count will be the key.  

As for comparing this year to 2016--far more Democratic presence for federal and state offices in metro Atlanta (city, suburbs, and exurbs).  You can even go to Hall County (73% vote for Trump) and see a few Biden signs in subdivisions.

But rural north Georgia has a sea of Trump and Perdue/Collins signs everywhere.

Does this indicate that Trump/Collins are underrepresented in polls?
It doesn't need to be a big underrepresentation for both Trump and Collins to win by a small margin.

Signs are a relatively poor indicator for election results.  There's a number of reasons, but here's an illustration:

I recently was driving through a suburb in New Castle County, DE (a solidly Democratic county).  In one neighborhood, there was at least fifteen Trump signs within about a half mile.  

You might look at that and say "huh, that must mean Trump has undetected pockets of support here".  But then, as I neared the exit to this neighborhood, I saw a man with a bunch of Trump signs under his arm as he worked on staking another sign into the ground.  

[Woody]

Lean R.

[roxas11]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

With all due respect as a black voter I find this comment to be silly and ridiculous

Friends and family that I know are not anti trump because somebody put social pressure on them
They are anti Trump because they simply don't like the man or his policies

people have lost their jobs during all of this and they have also lost friends and family members thanks largely to trump poor response to this virus.  

Its a slap in the face to say them being rightfully upset with trump is not because of his failures as a president but its simply because of social pressure

[wbrocks67]

Looks about right. Most of the undecideds lean Biden so I think Biden could do +2-3 here.

[redjohn]

Obviously still a tossup, but ever since the 2018 midterms I've expected GA will tilt towards Biden. Abrams receiving far more total votes than HRC in a midterm year was a major red flag for Republicans in 2020.

[Ferguson97]

Pure tossup, possibly Tilt D.

I mean, I have to imagine there are more Kemp-Biden voters than Abrams-Trump voters.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 8-9
528 voters
MoE: 4.3%
Changes with August 24-25 poll which was for a partisan sponsor (Stacy Abrams' Fair Fight)

Biden 47% (n/c)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Someone else 3% (not previously included)
Undecided 3% (-3)

[Brittain33]

Lean R.

It says "Biden" in the subject line.

[Woody]

Lean R.

It says "Biden" in the subject line.

It's a PPP poll sonny.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’m not going to say it - but I’m thinking it.

There are enough AA in GA to flip the state in a blue wave

Sir Woodbury doesn't believe in blue waves I see, most Rs dont

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Georgia President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-09

Summary: D: 47%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Holmes]

I think Georgia and Texas will be the closest states.

[Hope For A New Era]

Tossup. Even with Kemp's suppression. Didn't think I'd be saying that.

[Blair]

Contrary to popular opinion I think a decent number of those black undecideds will vote Trump or stay home. Same for what few white undecideds there are left. Since there's likely more social pressure in the black community to be anti-Trump, there have been more "undecideds" in the polls this cycle.

so once again your post reaches the conclusion that this news is bad for Biden?

[Rand]

P E A C H   C O B B L E R   J O E

[Buzz]

PPP has been very favorable to Biden this cycle.  Anybody trying to act like this state is leaning one way or another is fooling themselves.  I personally see Trump winning by Kemp margins, but this is a toss up if I’ve ever seen one.