What’s going on in MO, KS and SC ? Or NV ?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS for Biden, due to fact it has been trending left lately and it did vote for Sebelius in 2002, 2006 and 2018.

[Ferguson97]

and symbolically (Biden’s here today because of his primary win in SC).

I didn't even think of that.

Would be very fitting.

When Joe Biden said “I will win South Carolina” he wasn’t talking about the primary...

[Panda Express]

It should be pointed out that Nevada ranks 45/50 in % of its people who have at least a Bachelor's Degree. Only ahead of Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia and Kentucky. It's not a particularly educated state if you look at the numbers.

I suspect any relative weakness in Nevada is because of the educational gap trends, not any particular weakness with Latinos Biden has.

[wbrocks67]

Maybe MO or SC for Biden.

MO probably more so.

And the Biden campaign is struggling to avoid a defeat in NV right now.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/09/biden-nevada-surprise-loss-428366

That Politico piece is nothing but them trying to both sides this and make this a horse race, even though Biden's average in NV is like +6, which no Dems have gotten the past two cycles. Polls had Dems losing in 2016 AND 2018 while none have had Biden losing. Can you stop posting threads that are purposely trying to troll?

[Alben Barkley]

We have this Nevada dance every blasted election, and it's absolutely exhausting to have to point the same things out every time.

I can forgive new members or folks who don't have a lot of experience following Nevada politics, but you, Tender? You've been here for an enternity, and here we are again.

Believe what you will.

I know that NV usually ends up being more DEM than the polls say.

But Biden is extremely weak with the Latinos and they might not vote for him.

He’s up 71-20 in the last Latino Decisions poll.

[redjohn]

Biden's not winning MO/KS/SC. He won't win by 12 points or more, which is what it would take to be strongly competitive in those states. Trump has virtually no shot at winning NV. He lost there in 2016 even with his message resonating strongly across the rest of the board; not sure how Biden would possibly perform worse than Clinton there.

[mileslunn]

SC, but only in theory, and only because Harrison is keeping the Senate race so close.

SC would be the ultimate icing on the cake though - both aesthetically (turn the East Coast blue!) and symbolically (Biden’s here today because of his primary win in SC).

Hey, Torrain: what would be a UK constituency equivalent of the Democrats flipping SC?

In 2019, there were a whole whack of red wall seats, but some like Redcar, Leigh, Bolsover, Sedgefield, and Northwest Durham equivalent to Democrats winning South Carolina. 

For Tories, in 1997, I would say losing Enfield Southgate (due to demographic changes its now a Labour seat as less white and more middle class not as posh as then) and even got the title the Portillo moment as such a big shock.  More recently in 2017, I would say Labour flipping Canterbury and Kensington were equivalents.

[VAR]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=306639.msg6530518#msg6530518

NV is Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This Adam post kind of explains some of the problems the GOP faces in many states, and the sheer absolute dire peril the GOP faces in the sunbelt, which Trump has accelerated and with the weakness among seniors is exposing in real time this cycle. 

Note, the South Carolina numbers.

I thought it'd be interesting to explore how the youngest and oldest cohorts are currently voting and measure the discrepancy between those two groups' margins as a way of peeking into the future.

I decided to look at 2014 for multiple reasons, including the fact that it is the most recent election and that these individuals (especially going forward for the young cohorts) are/will be the core, reliable voting blocs for each subset of the population. I could have used 2008 data, but sheesh: it's 8 years old now.

Obviously we don't have exit polling data for every state, but you can use it to observe general trends for several regions of the country, and definitely so for the South. All but two states' (ME & WV) youngest voters are more Democratic than their oldest voters; in WV, the margin difference was 2 points.

Shades indicate the difference between 18-29 & 65+ voters' margins in 2014. In states where exit polling was available for both gubernatorial and senatorial races, both outcomes were averaged together to produce the result.



The five states with the biggest discrepancies between 18-29 & 65+ groups:

State	'14 Mar-Diff (Pts)	18-29	65+
CO	81	D+61	R+20
SC	58	D+19	R+39
MS	43	D+3	R+40
GA	43	D+13	R+30
TX	42	R+3	R+45

As far as trend (in the Atlas sense of the word) is concerned, I looked at the national House vote exit polling, which showed a margin discrepancy between the two groups of 27 points (18-29: D+11 & over 65: R+16), and then made this map to show which states had discrepancies that were larger or smaller than the national House vote discrepancy. I know, it's a bit of apples and oranges, but that's all the store had. There is no Gov/Sen national exit poll.

Shades indicate trend in 2014 margin discrepancy shown above relative to national House margin discrepancy for the two groups. White equals no trend. Both maps show same thing (one with gradient, one w/o):





There are a couple of outliers on the map based on this measurement - which is to be expected given the nature of this - but I think it's interesting nonetheless. I'm wondering if all of that Latino infusion into western KS is starting to produce small but noticeable dividends in the youngest voting blocs. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Long term, I think Missouri is fine and I think the GOP can rescue KS once Trump is gone and provided the Republicans are kept far away from the state gov't. The problem in SC and more so in GA and TX is far more severe because those states depend on out-sized and exaggerated margins with whites to win and those margins are provided almost exclusively from seniors and older white voters.

Since early 2016 my working thesis has been one of GOP retreat from minority heavy states in favor of less diverse ones where lower thresholds with white voters are necessary to hold onto and win via a "path of lesser resistance" and a "least change necessary rule". Note even this requires the GOP fix its education gap problem and do something mitigate the damage with younger and diverse voters, and what that all entails is up for discussion.

[Adam Griffin]

...

There are a couple of outliers on the map based on this measurement - which is to be expected given the nature of this - but I think it's interesting nonetheless. I'm wondering if all of that Latino infusion into western KS is starting to produce small but noticeable dividends in the youngest voting blocs. 

FWIW, Kansas was #6 in this comparison, with a difference between 18-29 & 65+ of approximately 38 points.

[Orser67]

Voted for SC and MO because I think they could go Biden in a true landslide, and for Nevada because a Trump comeback can't be ruled out yet, it nearly voted to the right of the national popular vote in 2016, and I'm a little worried about Trump gaining ground with Hispanic voters. I don't think KS is in play in the presidential election.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

...

There are a couple of outliers on the map based on this measurement - which is to be expected given the nature of this - but I think it's interesting nonetheless. I'm wondering if all of that Latino infusion into western KS is starting to produce small but noticeable dividends in the youngest voting blocs. 

FWIW, Kansas was #6 in this comparison, with a difference between 18-29 & 65+ of approximately 38 points.

I don't think that is solely because of Hispanic voters and Republicans stand a far better chance swaying non-minority voters then they do minority voters in a least change necessary to win model.

What are the present racial demographics for KS elections?

[Adam Griffin]

...

There are a couple of outliers on the map based on this measurement - which is to be expected given the nature of this - but I think it's interesting nonetheless. I'm wondering if all of that Latino infusion into western KS is starting to produce small but noticeable dividends in the youngest voting blocs.  

FWIW, Kansas was #6 in this comparison, with a difference between 18-29 & 65+ of approximately 38 points.

I don't think that is solely because of Hispanic voters and Republicans stand a far better chance swaying non-minority voters then they do minority voters in a least change necessary to win model.

What are the present racial demographics for KS elections?

No, of course not: western KS is relatively devoid of population but to the extent that younger voters are emerging, Latinos are the single-largest growing racial segment of the state (black voters aren't increasing as a share of voters through generational turnover and white voters are declining), so when combined with typical Latino voting trends, they'd have an outsized effect on the youth preference gap & Latino prevalence is disproportionately more so in the western half of the state. Counties like Seward, Finney, Haskell and Ford illustrate this:

2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates

% of Foreign-Born Who Are Non-Citizens:
Ford: 76.2%
Seward: 67.0%

# of Non-Citizens:
Ford: 6945
Seward: 4592

% of Pop Who Are Non-Citizens:
Ford: 20.1%
Seward: 30.6%

So yeah, 2/3 to 3/4 of these foreign-born residents are non-citizens, comprising (in the two counties above) around 1/4 of the total population. They can't vote (and given the surrounding terrain, there's no guarantee they would vote or even vote how urban Latinos do if they did).

Fox's exit poll showed KS-2018 as 87% white, 5% Latino, 5% black and 3% other.

Kansas Health Matters also has a county-by-county map of voter turnout (as a % of RVs) for 2016, which shows that the heavily-Latino counties in the western third of the state still have lots of room for improvement (the dark blue counties pretty much correlate exclusively to large Latino populations in western KS).

Also, the fact that KS-1 & KS-3 have a 20% population discrepancy is partially fueled by the Latino phenomenon (along with standard rural decline factors):

[TheLaRocca]

*Nevada will only go Trump if he wins the PV
*KS has a swing left (still Trump +10)
*Missouri polling always overstates Democrats. Not much of a change
*South Carolina overstates Democrats. But Biden gaining here is not that surprising.

[Former President tack50]

Of these the likeliest is NV going Trump but none are going to happen.