Updated Nevada poll chart
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:46:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Updated Nevada poll chart
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Updated Nevada poll chart  (Read 792 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 12, 2018, 04:18:55 AM »

I'm sure many of you have seen this post already:


There's three new members in the club. Everyone give them a warm welcome!



Logged
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,641
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2018, 04:36:12 AM »

Personally I can’t wait to do mental gymnastics and troll the 2020 board with enhanced reasoning as to why every NV Trump+1 poll is proof that he’s on track to win it.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2018, 04:36:41 AM »

This needs to be pinned at the top of every polling board going forward.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2018, 04:43:44 AM »

Something tells me we’ll get another entry in 2020, lol. Anyway, I remember people saying that because the error was smaller in 2016, that meant that NV polls were “trending” toward being more accurate. So much for that.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2018, 04:43:48 AM »

This needs to be pinned at the top of every polling board going forward.

Even if it is it won't matter. Quite a few hacks insisted that the charts going back every election for over a decade meant nothing because reasons and surely this time the Nevada polls wouldn't overestimate Republicans! I fully expect an encore in 2020. The ride never ends.
Logged
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,641
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2018, 04:45:44 AM »

Something tells me we’ll get another entry in 2020, lol. Anyway, I remember people saying that because the error was smaller in 2016, that meant that NV polls were “trending” toward being more accurate. So much for that.

Lmao atlas is now talking about poll accuracy in the form of trends.

“This poll is trending acurate. Closer to spot on than sufficient.”
Logged
ltomlinson31
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 448
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2018, 10:03:06 AM »

This needs to be pinned at the top of every polling board going forward.

Even if it is it won't matter. Quite a few hacks insisted that the charts going back every election for over a decade meant nothing because reasons and surely this time the Nevada polls wouldn't overestimate Republicans! I fully expect an encore in 2020. The ride never ends.

The Venn Diagram of people who were insistent that Dean Heller would win and those saying that Trump will win Nevada because of some poll will be a circle.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2018, 10:45:53 AM »

SirWoodbury and MillenialModerate told me Nevada polls are totally accurate and unbiased, though.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2018, 10:55:47 AM »

Something tells me we’ll get another entry in 2020, lol. Anyway, I remember people saying that because the error was smaller in 2016, that meant that NV polls were “trending” toward being more accurate. So much for that.

Lmao atlas is now talking about poll accuracy in the form of trends.

“This poll is trending acurate. Closer to spot on than sufficient.”

Forecast for NV 2020 polls have been moved from Solid Wrong to Lean Wrong.
Logged
Roblox
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,245


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2018, 12:01:52 PM »

There will still be 15 threads about how Nevada is "trending R" or "why is (democratic nominee) so weak in Nevada?" after a string of Trump +2 polls, lol.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2018, 12:16:28 PM »

It looks like assuming polls underestimate Democrats by 5 points is a generally good assumption. 2016 seems like an outlier, as does Heller's first election. 4-6 is the most common, so adjusting it to that seems fair. Its frustrating no pollsters have tried to fix this when their error seems so persistent and constant.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,144


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2018, 02:01:32 PM »

What about NV Governor in 2014?  The race wasn't polled very much, but Sandoval actually overperformed the polls by more than 20 points.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2018, 02:09:15 PM »

What about NV Governor in 2014?  The race wasn't polled very much, but Sandoval actually overperformed the polls by more than 20 points.

when you have 1 year when the entire GOP overperforms polls the polls anyway have him at +20 and don't show a horse race turnout vastly changes and it doesn't matter at that point. Everyone knew Sandoval would win.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.071 seconds with 12 queries.