Early prediction but a lot could happen. Trump declines to run because he's worried about losing. DeSantis survives a crowded primary thanks to Trump's endorsement and chooses South Dakota governor Kristi Noem as his running mate. Noem being on the ticket leads to a Palin effect, resulting in moderates who would've switched to DeSantis, staying with Harris, despite her below water approval rating as a result. Biden declines to run for a second term, and the Dems nominate Kamala Harris with minimal opposition. Kamala chooses Pete Buttigieg in an attempt to maintain the Rust Belt which is largely successful. Some Cubans switch back to Harris, as well as suburbanites in central Florida and near Jacksonville, allowing Kamala to narrowly win despite it being Ron DeSantis's home state. Harris also increases her wins in Arizona and Georgia due to sun belt growth.
Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg: 332 E.V.Ron DeSantis/Kristi Noem: 206 E.V.
