AZ-Trafalgar: Trump +4

[VAR]

Trump 48%
Biden 44%

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/az-pres-1020/

[redjohn]

I don't put much faith in Trafalgar, but AZ is obviously not a guaranteed flip. Trump could potentially win it by a hair, it's just far more likely that it goes to Biden.

[Sir Mohamed]

> Trashfalgar

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Tendentious
Reasoning
And
Fanciful
Arithmetic
Leaves
Greatly
Absurd
Results

[KaiserDave]

I don't care

[neostassenite31]

Who needs public polling when you can just have Trafalgar (R)? Get a quote today

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 6-8
1087 likely voters
MoE: 2.89%
Changes with August 5-8
Trends calculated pre-rounding

Trump 48% (+2)
Biden 44% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Undecided 5% (n/c)

[Buzz]

I needed a Traflagar poll like this for my Friday!




Obviously take with a massive grain of salt, but AZ does seem to be closer than we first expected.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Obviously take with a massive grain of salt, but AZ does seem to be closer than we first expected.

Yeah, Biden definitely shouldn't take this state for granted, even though I do think he's a bit more heavily favored there than the polling average indicates due to the classic Southwestern R polling bias. Trump by mid-single digits is obviously absurd though.

[Sir Mohamed]

I needed a Traflagar poll like this for my Friday!




Obviously take with a massive grain of salt, but AZ does seem to be closer than we first expected.

Nobody expected AZ to go for Biden by more than 5 pts. I think it will be 3 pts, about 50-47%. Kelly will outperform Biden by a few points, winning in mid to high single digits.

AZ is probably one of the last, if not the last state to be called. If current numbers are somewhat accurate, Biden will be over 270 long before.

[Rand]

Traf *cough* algar sweating like *cough* dogs *cough.

[BlueSwan]

After the election Trafalgar will either look like complete hacks never to be taken seriously again, or as utter geniuses. My money in on the former.

[Sirius_]

T(R)afalgar

[It’s so Joever]

Trump probably wins this state by 1,000 votes. Watch it happen.

[ExSky]

Buzz spends weeks denouncing very poll unfavorable to Trump and then takes Trafalgar seriously. How desperate can you be.

[republican1993]

OOOOOOOOOOOOOO YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[psychprofessor]

Why don't they ever release cross-tabs? There's actually no data here - just the end result and their age, race breakdown etc...

[Buzz]

Buzz spends weeks denouncing very poll unfavorable to Trump and then takes Trafalgar seriously. How desperate can you be.

Did you  read a word I said or nah? I said to take it with a massive grain of salt.  There has been numerous polls lately showing AZ competitive compared to the 7-8 points Biden leads we were seeing.  Trafalgar was off in AZ by 4 points in 2018, which would still make this poll competitive.  Trump is more popular than Mcsally though.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I could see Trump eeking it out in AZ, but there's no way Biden is anywhere near 44%. If this was 48-48 it would be more believable.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-08

Summary: D: 44%, R: 48%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Biden drops to 279 EV in the Atlas poll map as a result, his 2nd-lowest showing since May and -71 EV since last week:



https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php

Trump lost 44 EV since last week.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll is trying to make people believe Trump is coming back

[Tender Branson]

Biden drops to 279 EV in the Atlas poll map as a result, his 2nd-lowest showing since May and -71 EV since last week.

Trump lost 44 EV since last week.

On the other hand, Biden has remained above 270 EV for the past half year, without ever dropping below - something that neither Hillary nor Obama in 2008 and 2012, nor Kerry in 2004 achieved (Obama 2008 only in the last month or so):

2020:



2016:



2012:



2008:



2004:

[Roronoa D. Law]

Buzz spends weeks denouncing very poll unfavorable to Trump and then takes Trafalgar seriously. How desperate can you be.

It's been a rough election cycle for them. Let them have this one.

[Senator-elect Spark]

And so the comeback begins...