COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So, what's causing the high body count at this point, do deaths really lag so much that it's Delta or is it Omicron offing everybody

It's a lag from Delta.

Well, that's a big damn ass lag.  Any link or just conjecture?

It would have to be, because Omicron just isn't very deadly.

[DINGO Joe]

So, what's causing the high body count at this point, do deaths really lag so much that it's Delta or is it Omicron offing everybody

It's a lag from Delta.

Well, that's a big damn ass lag.  Any link or just conjecture?

It would have to be, because Omicron just isn't very deadly.

Lol, OK Mr. Science.

[It’s so Joever]

So, what's causing the high body count at this point, do deaths really lag so much that it's Delta or is it Omicron offing everybody

I mean a lot of people still got infected. Even if the mortality rate is lower, that doesn’t mean raw deaths will be.

[DINGO Joe]

So, what's causing the high body count at this point, do deaths really lag so much that it's Delta or is it Omicron offing everybody

I mean a lot of people still got infected. Even if the mortality rate is lower, that doesn’t mean raw deaths will be.

That is a valid point, though there does seem to be a smaller pool of people that any form of Covid should be deadly too.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So, what's causing the high body count at this point, do deaths really lag so much that it's Delta or is it Omicron offing everybody

Of course, it's Omicron.

Source: Data from CDC and Algebra  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

By the way, cases peaked at ~Jan 14h which means that deaths #'s likely will peak this weak.

[Pericles]

Omicron at the moment is a bad trade because cases have increased more than its virulence has reduced compared to Delta. However, cases are clearly falling so in the long-term the death toll from Omicron should be lower.

[compucomp]

So, what's causing the high body count at this point, do deaths really lag so much that it's Delta or is it Omicron offing everybody

It's a lag from Delta.

Well, that's a big damn ass lag.  Any link or just conjecture?

It would have to be, because Omicron just isn't very deadly.

This can't be right, CDC says that as of the first week of January 96% of cases are Omicron, that week the national average of cases was about 600K, so about 24K Delta cases per day cause most of the current 2.5K deaths per day? That is totally out of sync with the September Delta peak of 160K daily cases and 1.9K daily deaths. Omicron is clearly driving the current death spike.

[emailking]

So, what's causing the high body count at this point, do deaths really lag so much that it's Delta or is it Omicron offing everybody

It's Omicron.

[emailking]

So, what's causing the high body count at this point, do deaths really lag so much that it's Delta or is it Omicron offing everybody

It's a lag from Delta.

No it's Omicron.

[Oakvale]

https://twitter.com/JakeLahut/status/1488228955568185348

Utterly based. This should unironically be the Biden administration's message.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/WCVB/status/1483673845479481348

Massachusetts officials announced Tuesday updated school COVID-19 testing options, including weekly at-home rapid tests weekly, as new data on pooled testing and Test and Stay programs show very few positive cases and low transmission rates.

“The data from over a year’s worth of pool testing shows that school is an extremely safe place for educators and kids,” Gov. Charlie Baker said. “The data from our Test and Stay program confirms without a doubt that in-school transmission is extremely rare, far more rare than transmission that is happening outside of school.”

[Florida Man for Crime]

However, cases are clearly falling so in the long-term the death toll from Omicron should be lower.

Unfortunately, that is probably incorrect because:

a) People will get (and already are getting) re-infected, and it does not appear to be the case that reinfections have a greatly lower fatality rate or morbidity rate as compared to initial infections. Partial immunity from antibodies seems like it may wane faster than with Delta, and there have been some studies suggesting that T cells don't provide strong or relatively long lasting immunity from an omicron infection unless it severe.

b) The fact that it is more contagious and infecting more people means that there are more hosts within which additional future variants can evolve, further increasing the probability that additional new variants which further evade prior immunity both from infection and from vaccines evolve.

The central problem is that immunity is short-lived. Unless and until something changes with respect to that, we are going to keep having additional waves over time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Recent deaths in Florida have been very, very low. That's another indicator that the continuing deaths probably are Delta.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Recent deaths in Florida have been very, very low. That's another indicator that the continuing deaths probably are Delta.

lol Mr Scientist (that's a great nickname for you)




https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/florida-covid-update-seven-day-death-average-is-the-highest-recorded-since-october/ar-AATldQz

Florida COVID update: Seven-day death average is the highest recorded since October

Michelle Marchante, Miami Herald - 41m ago

Florida on Monday reported 34,204 COVID-19 cases and 618 new deaths to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.

The CDC backlogs cases and deaths for Florida on Mondays and Thursdays, when multiple days in the past had their totals changed. In August, Florida began reporting cases and deaths by the “case date” and “death date” rather than the date they were logged into the system.

Of the deaths added, about 98% occurred in the past 28 days and about 63% in the last two weeks, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.

In the past seven days, the state has added 180 deaths, on average, the highest recorded since mid-October, according to Herald calculations. In the past seven days, the state has also added 26,854 cases per day, on average. Florida has recorded a total of at least 5,535,803 confirmed COVID cases and 65,265 deaths.

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-tallahassee-hospitals-report-highest-200559067.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEHrx_2_iEsB-k58aLvapCUchj81r-H72e7Y9lloQHbaePQmul7fTZH_Knv-SetH4DnSasctVd8sGmfT_upofKr2qpywlMWdRzYD8RBm_NrPZf-Lkm0Xy34-4SLKSmFM3PhxHq5GZXmlPs15nqkgCedKmJ8wJASaRVOKPhQ8zwdp

Tallahassee Democrat
COVID: Tallahassee hospitals report highest monthly death count since October; cases fall over 22%
Mike Stucka and Christopher Cann
Mon, January 31, 2022, 9:05 PM·6 min read

Tallahassee hospitals have reported their highest monthly count of COVID-related deaths since October, when the delta variant was raging through the community.

[emailking]

Recent deaths in Florida have been very, very low. That's another indicator that the continuing deaths probably are Delta.

Delta is barely even here anymore. It's not Delta.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Recent deaths in Florida have been very, very low. That's another indicator that the continuing deaths probably are Delta.

lol Mr Scientist (that's a great nickname for you)




https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/florida-covid-update-seven-day-death-average-is-the-highest-recorded-since-october/ar-AATldQz

Florida COVID update: Seven-day death average is the highest recorded since October

Michelle Marchante, Miami Herald - 41m ago

Florida on Monday reported 34,204 COVID-19 cases and 618 new deaths to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.

The CDC backlogs cases and deaths for Florida on Mondays and Thursdays, when multiple days in the past had their totals changed. In August, Florida began reporting cases and deaths by the “case date” and “death date” rather than the date they were logged into the system.

Of the deaths added, about 98% occurred in the past 28 days and about 63% in the last two weeks, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.

In the past seven days, the state has added 180 deaths, on average, the highest recorded since mid-October, according to Herald calculations. In the past seven days, the state has also added 26,854 cases per day, on average. Florida has recorded a total of at least 5,535,803 confirmed COVID cases and 65,265 deaths.

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-tallahassee-hospitals-report-highest-200559067.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEHrx_2_iEsB-k58aLvapCUchj81r-H72e7Y9lloQHbaePQmul7fTZH_Knv-SetH4DnSasctVd8sGmfT_upofKr2qpywlMWdRzYD8RBm_NrPZf-Lkm0Xy34-4SLKSmFM3PhxHq5GZXmlPs15nqkgCedKmJ8wJASaRVOKPhQ8zwdp

Tallahassee Democrat
COVID: Tallahassee hospitals report highest monthly death count since October; cases fall over 22%
Mike Stucka and Christopher Cann
Mon, January 31, 2022, 9:05 PM·6 min read

Tallahassee hospitals have reported their highest monthly count of COVID-related deaths since October, when the delta variant was raging through the community.

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

[Roll Roons]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

You know the BlueAnon crowd will jump in and claim that it's somehow fake.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

sigh

https://www.govtech.com/health/fla-changes-how-it-counts-covid-deaths-misleads-public

Fla. Changes How It Counts COVID Deaths, Misleads Public
As the COVID-19 delta variant has led to record infections and hospitalizations in Florida, the state's health agency has altered the way it reports COVID-related deaths, creating a misleading downward trend.
August 31, 2021 •
Sarah Blaskey, Ana Claudia Chacin, Devoun Cetoute, McClatchy Washington Bureau

(TNS) — As the delta variant spreads through Florida, data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest this could be the most serious and deadly surge in COVID-19 infections since the beginning of the pandemic.

As cases ballooned in August, however, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported death data to the CDC, giving the appearance of a pandemic in decline, an analysis of Florida data by the Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald found.

On Monday, Florida death data would have shown an average of 262 daily deaths reported to the CDC over the previous week had the health department used its former reporting system, the Herald analysis showed. Instead, the Monday update from Florida showed just 46 “new deaths” per day over the previous seven days.

The dramatic difference is due to a small change in the fine print. Until three weeks ago, data collected by DOH and published on the CDC website counted deaths by the date they were recorded — a common method for producing daily stats used by most states. On Aug. 10, Florida switched its methodology and, along with just a handful of other states, began to tally new deaths by the date the person died.

If you chart deaths by Florida’s new method, based on date of death, it will generally appear — even during a spike like the present — that deaths are on a recent downslope. That’s because it takes time for deaths to be evaluated and death certificates processed. When those deaths finally are tallied, they are assigned to the actual data of death — creating a spike where there once existed a downslope and moving the downslope forward in time.

Shivani Patel, a social epidemiologist and assistant professor at Emory University called the move “extremely problematic,” especially since it came without warning or explanation during a rise in cases.

Patel said Florida death data now show an “artificial decline” in recent deaths and without an explanation or context, and “it would look like we are doing better than we are.”

[Calthrina950]

However, cases are clearly falling so in the long-term the death toll from Omicron should be lower.

Unfortunately, that is probably incorrect because:

a) People will get (and already are getting) re-infected, and it does not appear to be the case that reinfections have a greatly lower fatality rate or morbidity rate as compared to initial infections. Partial immunity from antibodies seems like it may wane faster than with Delta, and there have been some studies suggesting that T cells don't provide strong or relatively long lasting immunity from an omicron infection unless it severe.

b) The fact that it is more contagious and infecting more people means that there are more hosts within which additional future variants can evolve, further increasing the probability that additional new variants which further evade prior immunity both from infection and from vaccines evolve.

The central problem is that immunity is short-lived. Unless and until something changes with respect to that, we are going to keep having additional waves over time.

Out of curiosity, which of these Covid view camps do you fall into? How much longer do you think the pandemic will continue for? And do you believe the measures which have been implemented should become permanent?

[Florida Man for Crime]

You know the BlueAnon crowd will jump in and claim that it's somehow fake.

C'mon, make an effort. This is sad to see.

[compucomp]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

You know the BlueAnon crowd will jump in and claim that it's somehow fake.

There is clearly something wrong with Florida's data, whether it's intentional or not. Texas has 7x deaths per capita in the last week under mostly similar climate and leadership.

[emailking]

If Delta is 0.5% of infections (and that was determined a few weeks ago), and even if there are actually 2 million cases a day, that means 10,000 cases a day of delta. And we're seeing like 2000 deaths a day. So how does that work if those deaths are mostly Delta?