COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Donerail]

What do you think will be different two months from now? If you were waiting to get vaccinated, that would make sense, but I don't believe that's the case. Why do you feel a need to delay your encounter with the virus by two months?

The wave will be over. I might not encounter the virus after that.

That's not an option. You will encounter the virus, whether it is now or two months from now. This virus will be circulating in humans for centuries. If anything, your health outcomes will be worse two months from now — as your vaccine immunity wanes — than if you encountered the virus now. That's what it means for a virus to be endemic.

[emailking]

That's not an option. You will encounter the virus, whether it is now or two months from now. This virus will be circulating in humans for centuries. If anything, your health outcomes will be worse two months from now — as your vaccine immunity wanes — than if you encountered the virus now. That's what it means for a virus to be endemic.

I don't agree with that. Obviously I'll get a cold again at some point and maybe it will be a descendant of Omicron, but maybe not. Like I said, I don't think it's inevitable that everybody will get it. And if it's really just a cold and no big deal, then it doesn't matter anyway whether it's now or a few years from now or whatever. Most cold viruses don't have any kind of vaccine anyway.

[compucomp]

I would much rather be somewhat sick for a few days than miss a concert or sporting event I really want to go to.  Or certainly cancel an international trip or major conference.  And we’ve been missing these for most of two years now.  I just can’t fathom how people think this trade-off is sensible (at least now that we’re vaccinated).

Because we value keeping hospital space and staff available to those who have an urgent need for them over "not missing a concert or sporting event".

ICUs are almost 80% full, and 2/3 of those are non-covid patients, meaning even absent covid, nearly 60% of the country's ICU beds are in use. The pandemic is exposing a deeper problem, which is a shortage of hospital space caused by our for-profit system, and this is something that needs highlighted above all else at this point.

I agree with this, and one very plausible long term result of the pandemic is that hospitals are forced to increase permanent capacity, and then medical costs will go up for everyone.

[Hammy]

Newsweek: Omicron May Be the 'Harbinger of the End' of COVID's Epidemic Phase, Study Says

The decreased severity of the Omicron COVID-19 variant may be a "harbinger" of an end to the global pandemic caused by virus. Initial data from South Africa indicates that the variant results in a quarter of deaths associated with earlier variants.

In the first study conducted to assess the risk of fatalities presented by Omicron researchers assessed the progress of COVID patients admitted to the Steve Biko Academic Hospital and the Tshwane District Hospital, the latter of which has been converted into a COVID specialist facility.

The hospitals are located in the City of Tshwane, the region of South Africa that was the first global epicenter of Omicron.

"There are clear signs that case and admission rates in South Africa may decline further over the next few weeks," the authors wrote.

"If this pattern continues and is repeated globally, we are likely to see a complete decoupling of case and death rates suggesting that Omicron may be a harbinger of the end of the epidemic phase of the COVID pandemic ushering in its endemic phase."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) describes an endemic as a sudden localized rise in a particular disease that is usually present in a community. This means that the disease's spread is predictable. This is in contrast to a pandemic, which the CDC defines as an: "Event in which a disease spreads across several countries and affects a large number of people."

Haven’t we heard this before?  Another scary new variant always seems to come along that wipes away all previous assumptions.

I've literally never heard of a variant being discussed as possibly the beginning of the end of the pandemic. Every single variant, without exception, prior to this been treated as evidence the pandemic will go on for eternity.

The fact is, especially for the vaccinated, omicron is functionally a cold. And there have been quite a few studies now that back up the assertion that the chances of the unvaccinated getting severe covid--while still high enough to warrant vaccination--is significantly less than prior variants, an indication that it's following prior pandemics where it becomes both more contagious and less severe over time.

I remember people here saying Delta would be the last major wave and that we'd have an easy winter.

I'm just saying that we need to take things with a grain of salt.  The pandemic has shown time and time again that it gives zero F's when it comes to just about anything.  It's not running on our time.

First, I don't recall a single person saying that. Second, this article is citing actual scientists, not some Atlas posters.

[MATTROSE94]

Newsweek: Omicron May Be the 'Harbinger of the End' of COVID's Epidemic Phase, Study Says

The decreased severity of the Omicron COVID-19 variant may be a "harbinger" of an end to the global pandemic caused by virus. Initial data from South Africa indicates that the variant results in a quarter of deaths associated with earlier variants.

In the first study conducted to assess the risk of fatalities presented by Omicron researchers assessed the progress of COVID patients admitted to the Steve Biko Academic Hospital and the Tshwane District Hospital, the latter of which has been converted into a COVID specialist facility.

The hospitals are located in the City of Tshwane, the region of South Africa that was the first global epicenter of Omicron.

"There are clear signs that case and admission rates in South Africa may decline further over the next few weeks," the authors wrote.

"If this pattern continues and is repeated globally, we are likely to see a complete decoupling of case and death rates suggesting that Omicron may be a harbinger of the end of the epidemic phase of the COVID pandemic ushering in its endemic phase."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) describes an endemic as a sudden localized rise in a particular disease that is usually present in a community. This means that the disease's spread is predictable. This is in contrast to a pandemic, which the CDC defines as an: "Event in which a disease spreads across several countries and affects a large number of people."

Haven’t we heard this before?  Another scary new variant always seems to come along that wipes away all previous assumptions.

I've literally never heard of a variant being discussed as possibly the beginning of the end of the pandemic. Every single variant, without exception, prior to this been treated as evidence the pandemic will go on for eternity.

The fact is, especially for the vaccinated, omicron is functionally a cold. And there have been quite a few studies now that back up the assertion that the chances of the unvaccinated getting severe covid--while still high enough to warrant vaccination--is significantly less than prior variants, an indication that it's following prior pandemics where it becomes both more contagious and less severe over time.

I remember people here saying Delta would be the last major wave and that we'd have an easy winter.

I'm just saying that we need to take things with a grain of salt.  The pandemic has shown time and time again that it gives zero F's when it comes to just about anything.  It's not running on our time.

First, I don't recall a single person saying that. Second, this article is citing actual scientists, not some Atlas posters.

I don’t recall anyone saying that about Delta either. Most public health observers expected a bad winter with Delta anyway.

[Inmate Trump]

There’s no social distancing at my work and no masks.

Some unvaccinated people have been out lately with covid, or out because family has covid.

Some vaccinated people have had the sniffles and cold like symptoms recently. One person I work closely with every day has a son who has covid, and she is one who’s had the sniffles. She didn’t get tested and she’s been at work the whole time her kids had covid.

Anyway…yesterday and today I’ve been feeling run down and have an extremely minor cough. My throat feels slightly itchy. But overall I feel better than I did with my last sinus infection.

Not sure if I should go get tested, mainly because I don’t want to be stuck waiting an hour or more. And it may not even be “worth it” since my symptoms aren’t terrible. Could just be the funky Georgia weather.

[Hammy]

There’s no social distancing at my work and no masks.

Some unvaccinated people have been out lately with covid, or out because family has covid.

Some vaccinated people have had the sniffles and cold like symptoms recently. One person I work closely with every day has a son who has covid, and she is one who’s had the sniffles. She didn’t get tested and she’s been at work the whole time her kids had covid.

Anyway…yesterday and today I’ve been feeling run down and have an extremely minor cough. My throat feels slightly itchy. But overall I feel better than I did with my last sinus infection.

Not sure if I should go get tested, mainly because I don’t want to be stuck waiting an hour or more. And it may not even be “worth it” since my symptoms aren’t terrible. Could just be the funky Georgia weather.

Might be worth it just to get tested, if you're positive and nothing comes of the symptoms it might help alleviate some of the stress around it still going around.

[Mr. Illini]

Chicago Teachers Union gearing up for walk out over COVID safety concerns

https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-students-to-return-to-class-monday-amid-debate-over-covid-19-safety/086d207e-9bdc-4a74-9eac-7faf5dc1770d

Major development here in Chicago

[TheReckoning]

Chicago Teachers Union gearing up for walk out over COVID safety concerns

https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-students-to-return-to-class-monday-amid-debate-over-covid-19-safety/086d207e-9bdc-4a74-9eac-7faf5dc1770d

Major development here in Chicago

This is absolutely ridiculous. If you’re scared about COVID, then get vaccinated, and you’ll be fine. There’s absolutely no reason for anyone to want to work at home anymore, unless you’re counting “wanting to do less work” as a reason.

[Mr. Illini]

Chicago Teachers Union gearing up for walk out over COVID safety concerns

https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-students-to-return-to-class-monday-amid-debate-over-covid-19-safety/086d207e-9bdc-4a74-9eac-7faf5dc1770d

Major development here in Chicago

This is absolutely ridiculous. If you’re scared about COVID, then get vaccinated, and you’ll be fine. There’s absolutely no reason for anyone to want to work at home anymore, unless you’re counting “wanting to do less work” as a reason.

I agree. I’d add that one complicating factor they’re also weighing is staffing shortages. There’s worry over whether, with so many staff in quarantine or isolation, schools will be able to run properly in person.

[TheReckoning]

Chicago Teachers Union gearing up for walk out over COVID safety concerns

https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-students-to-return-to-class-monday-amid-debate-over-covid-19-safety/086d207e-9bdc-4a74-9eac-7faf5dc1770d

Major development here in Chicago

This is absolutely ridiculous. If you’re scared about COVID, then get vaccinated, and you’ll be fine. There’s absolutely no reason for anyone to want to work at home anymore, unless you’re counting “wanting to do less work” as a reason.

I agree. I’d add that one complicating factor they’re also weighing is staffing shortages. There’s worry over whether, with so many staff in quarantine or isolation, schools will be able to run properly in person.

A simple solution is a vaccine mandate for teachers so this whole issue can be ended.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

For those vaccinated people saying “I don’t want to get to get Omicron because I don’t even want to be sick for a day or two”, I have to ask: if this is true, why did you even get vaccinated?

After you got vaccinated, didn’t you feel sick for a day or two?  But you made the choice that this was worth the trade-off in order to avoid the risk of more serious illness, and also to contribute to the overall immunity of society.

It seem to me that getting Omicron is basically the same as another vaccinate booster.  Its consequences are basically just side effects with no threat to lungs or other vital life functions, it improves the overal herd immunity of society, and there is now significant evidence that it dramatically improves your immunity toward more serious variants.

Obviously actually getting a weaken strain of the virus is scientifically disimilar to an mRNA vaccine.  But isn’t is scientifically almost identical to old-fashioned inoculation?

[emailking]

For those vaccinated people saying “I don’t want to get to get Omicron because I don’t even want to be sick for a day or two”, I have to ask: if this is true, why did you even get vaccinated?

To decrease the chances of getting Covid pre-Omicron. Also so I don't get hospitalized.

After you got vaccinated, didn’t you feel sick for a day or two?

Yes.

It seem to me that getting Omicron is basically the same as another vaccinate booster.  Its consequences are basically just side effects with no threat to lungs or other vital life functions, it improves the overal herd immunity of society, and there is now significant evidence that it dramatically improves your immunity toward more serious variants.

Obviously actually getting a weaken strain of the virus is scientifically disimilar to an mRNA vaccine.  But isn’t is scientifically almost identical to old-fashioned inoculation?

The vaccine is very unlikely to cause any issues beyond the day or 2. Colds are traditionally a 9 day affair with 3 days of hell in the middle. Anyway the booster caused 1 night of hell for me (much worse than shots 1 and 2) so I'm not sold yet on getting a 4th booster anyway.

[Hammy]

Chicago Teachers Union gearing up for walk out over COVID safety concerns

https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-students-to-return-to-class-monday-amid-debate-over-covid-19-safety/086d207e-9bdc-4a74-9eac-7faf5dc1770d

Major development here in Chicago

This is absolutely ridiculous. If you’re scared about COVID, then get vaccinated, and you’ll be fine. There’s absolutely no reason for anyone to want to work at home anymore, unless you’re counting “wanting to do less work” as a reason.

Plenty of valid reasons to want to work at home that are completely unrelated to covid, at least depending on the profession--for quite a few people the commute is too much, not to mention cost of gas and despite what employers want to say, people actually work more efficiently when they don't feel like they're under constant surveillance.

For those vaccinated people saying “I don’t want to get to get Omicron because I don’t even want to be sick for a day or two”, I have to ask: if this is true, why did you even get vaccinated?

After you got vaccinated, didn’t you feel sick for a day or two?  But you made the choice that this was worth the trade-off in order to avoid the risk of more serious illness, and also to contribute to the overall immunity of society.

Personally I got vaccinated because I'd rather not end up in the hospital or with permanent health damage from getting covid, and so I could feel comfortable leaving the house again.

I have two personal reasons for continuing trying to get sick--the primary being I live with my mother who is almost 70 and the risk of ending up on the street should anything happen is too high to even take the smallest microscopic risk. She's vaccinated and boosted, so logically I shouldn't have to worry, unfortunately anxiety and panic disorder do not at all follow logic.

The second, while much less of a reason, is that I have horrible allergies year round and quite severe rib and sternum pain any time I cough or sneeze (stemming from a bad case of the flu in 2018), and really don't need anything making it worse. Even before covid, before having masks in the house, I'd cover my mouth and nose with a wet washcloth if I had to go outside during peak allergy season.

That said, I don't expect others to follow these protocols as it's very situation-specific.

Obviously actually getting a weaken strain of the virus is scientifically disimilar to an mRNA vaccine.  But isn’t is scientifically almost identical to old-fashioned inoculation?

No. You can't spread the vaccine to others like you can with an actual illness, and in my case, I had soreness and fatigue with the vaccines but did not have any nasal symptoms. The immune reaction compared to a weakened strain (for example, the flu) are quite dissimilar in most people.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The vaccine is very unlikely to cause any issues beyond the day or 2. Colds are traditionally a 9 day affair with 3 days of hell in the middle. Anyway the booster caused 1 night of hell for me (much worse than shots 1 and 2) so I'm not sold yet on getting a 4th booster anyway.

Everybody's reacting differently. My worst dose of COVID vaccine in terms of side effects had been the second one in June. The booster was actually the most palatable one for me so far. Maybe it depends on whether you combine different vaccines? I had Moderna three times in a row now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The vaccine is very unlikely to cause any issues beyond the day or 2. Colds are traditionally a 9 day affair with 3 days of hell in the middle. Anyway the booster caused 1 night of hell for me (much worse than shots 1 and 2) so I'm not sold yet on getting a 4th booster anyway.

Everybody's reacting differently. My worst dose of COVID vaccine in terms of side effects had been the second one in June. The booster was actually the most palatable one for me so far. Maybe it depends on whether you combine different vaccines? I had Moderna three times in a row now.

I had two Pfizers and my arm hurt for two days. Better than going to hospital with viral pneumonia I guess.

[Mr. Morden]

Chicago Teachers Union gearing up for walk out over COVID safety concerns

https://www.wbez.org/stories/chicago-students-to-return-to-class-monday-amid-debate-over-covid-19-safety/086d207e-9bdc-4a74-9eac-7faf5dc1770d

Major development here in Chicago

This is absolutely ridiculous. If you’re scared about COVID, then get vaccinated, and you’ll be fine. There’s absolutely no reason for anyone to want to work at home anymore, unless you’re counting “wanting to do less work” as a reason.

I agree. I’d add that one complicating factor they’re also weighing is staffing shortages. There’s worry over whether, with so many staff in quarantine or isolation, schools will be able to run properly in person.

A simple solution is a vaccine mandate for teachers so this whole issue can be ended.

I work at an office job in which attendance in the office is optional, but anyone who decides to go into the office must prove that they’re vaccinated.  Despite this, there are breakthrough cases, and a few days before Christmas, the office was shut down (and will remain so at least through the end of this week) because of an uptick in breakthrough cases.  There are no known cases so far in which one person with a breakthrough case in the office infected someone else in the office.  But still, whenever someone gets a breakthrough case, they’re sent home, regardless of whether they’re symptomatic.

So this is the question for in person schooling, I’d think: Even if there’s mandatory vaccination, there’ll be breakthrough cases.  With the current Omicron wave, there are quite a few breakthrough cases, but the vaccines limit the severity of the infections, and in many cases they’re asymptomatic.  So if there’s mandatory vaccination, and all teachers and students are vaccinated, but we get a bunch of asymptomatic breakthrough cases amongst teachers, then do we tell them to show up to teach at school anyway, or do we send them home to quarantine?  If the latter, then you could still have staffing shortages despite the vaccination requirement.

This is the same issue that was previously discussed w/ airline pilots.  If they test positive, they're sent home, regardless of whether they have symptoms.

It's not enough to have a vaccine requirement.  The key turn that would have to happen to end this would be to reach a point where someone getting an asymptomatic breakthrough case is treated as no big deal in terms of their threat to others, such that they can continue on the job rather than being sent home.

[Aurelius]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

What does "pre-Omicron" mean or entail? I hope not the time when nobody was vaccinated? Of course COVID was deadlier than, but for different reasons. Also, there was also a time before Delta, was this taken into account here or not? I don't question the less frequent occurrence of severe cases with Omicron since this is by now medical consensus, but it's unclear to me whether your numbers actually mean anything either.

[Frodo]

Omicron Cases Are Hitting Highs, But New Data Puts End in Sight

A string of new studies has confirmed the silver lining of the omicron variant: Even as case numbers soar to records, the numbers of severe cases and hospitalizations have not. The data, some scientists say, signal a new, less worrying chapter of the pandemic.

“We’re now in a totally different phase,” said Monica Gandhi, an immunologist at the University of California, San Francisco. “The virus is always going to be with us, but my hope is this variant causes so much immunity that it will quell the pandemic.”

The omicron variant was discovered in South Africa just over a month ago, and experts caution that there is still plenty of time for the situation to change. But data from the past week suggest that a combination of widespread immunity and numerous mutations have resulted in a virus that causes far less severe disease than previous iterations.

One study out of South Africa found that patients admitted to the hospital there during the omicron-dominated fourth wave of the virus were 73% less likely to have severe disease than patients admitted during the delta-dominated third wave. “The data is quite solid now that hospitalizations and cases are decoupled,” said Wendy Burgers, an immunologist at the University of Cape Town.

[Hammy]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

What does "pre-Omicron" mean or entail? I hope not the time when nobody was vaccinated? Of course COVID was deadlier than, but for different reasons. Also, there was also a time before Delta, was this taken into account here or not? I don't question the less frequent occurrence of severe cases with Omicron since this is by now medical consensus, but it's unclear to me whether your numbers actually mean anything either.

South Africa has about 25% or so vaccination rate, not likely enough to make much of a difference in these numbers.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

What does "pre-Omicron" mean or entail? I hope not the time when nobody was vaccinated? Of course COVID was deadlier than, but for different reasons. Also, there was also a time before Delta, was this taken into account here or not? I don't question the less frequent occurrence of severe cases with Omicron since this is by now medical consensus, but it's unclear to me whether your numbers actually mean anything either.

South Africa has about 25% or so vaccination rate, not likely enough to make much of a difference in these numbers.

Of course it makes a difference, just not the the extent a higher vaxx rate would.

[Aurelius]

Crude analysis of Omicron severity based on SA data. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day case average: 259
Omicron peak of 7-day case average: 23,437

Pre-Omicron minimum of 7-day death average: 11
Omicron peak of 7-day death average: 67 (if deaths have in fact peaked)

Ratio of cases pre-Omicron/Omicron: 90.5
Ratio of deaths pre-Omicron/Omicron: 6.1

90.5 / 6.1 = 14.8

Thus it appears that Omicron is approximately 14.8 times less deadly than Delta.

What does "pre-Omicron" mean or entail? I hope not the time when nobody was vaccinated? Of course COVID was deadlier than, but for different reasons. Also, there was also a time before Delta, was this taken into account here or not? I don't question the less frequent occurrence of severe cases with Omicron since this is by now medical consensus, but it's unclear to me whether your numbers actually mean anything either.

Mid-November.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1478163515756187654?s=20

[GregTheGreat657]

A little over a week ago, an elderly man was assaulted for not wearing a mask while eating by a maskless woman, on a plane

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/woman-arrested-for-assaulting-elderly-man-on-flight-eating-without-mask-watch-1894088-2021-12-30