COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Torie]

Notice that a quarter of the ICU cases are breakthrough cases, and that the queues for surgeries are long due to a lack of ICU beds. I am extremely concerned about Omicron variant.

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-intensive-care-unit-coronavirus-trial-survival/

This article doesn't mention anything about ICU cases or breakthrough cases being tied to Omicron.

"While 76 percent of people in Belgium are fully vaccinated, approximately 75 percent of those in the COVID ICU are not."

What does this have to do with Omicron?  It says nothing about whether these ICU cases are the Omicron variant.

It does not mention Omicron.

[compucomp]

Remember that still means a small percentage of vaccinated end up in the ICU. Because not many end up in the ICU, vaccinated or not.

Yes the vaccine does have a good effect in preventing hospitalization, and if 100% of the population were vaccinated 100% of cases would be breakthroughs, but we'd expect the more people vaccinated, the fewer people end up in the hospital. However hospitals are still having to cancel elective surgeries, call the military/National Guard for help, etc, which means the effect is not good enough right now.

[Hammy]

Notice that a quarter of the ICU cases are breakthrough cases, and that the queues for surgeries are long due to a lack of ICU beds. I am extremely concerned about Omicron variant.

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-intensive-care-unit-coronavirus-trial-survival/

Delta is by far the dominant variant in most of Europe right now, where are you getting Omicron being an issue from? All data coming out of South Africa, where it is dominant, is still indicating milder symptoms.

Guess what, CNN? Nobody cares. I've been vaccinated, so what else does CNN want me to do? Wear 3 masks?

You apparently care enough to make this absurd comment that adds no value to the thread.

[Skunk]

Guess what, CNN? Nobody cares. I've been vaccinated, so what else does CNN want me to do? Wear 3 masks?

Just because you don't care does not mean that nobody cares.  You do not speak for the entire population.

CNN doesn't speak for the entire population either.

[Omega21]

Looks like Omicron might be just a mild flu. Weeks have passed since the first surge of cases, and the amount of people requiring oxygen or dying is still very low compared to case numbers.

IF this is confirmed, this should hopefully end once and forever.

(As long as the Media doesn't get their way with stoking Panic with case numbers)

In general, the new omicron cases have resulted in milder disease, with fewer hospitalizations and less severe cases requiring oxygen or intensive care, according to doctors and official figures. Despite the rising numbers of cases, South Africa’s death rate has not gone up, although experts warn it could increase in the next few weeks.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africans-urge-jabs-president-ill-omicron-wave-81724530

[ProudModerate2]

Remember that still means a small percentage of vaccinated end up in the ICU. Because not many end up in the ICU, vaccinated or not.

Yes the vaccine does have a good effect in preventing hospitalization, and if 100% of the population were vaccinated 100% of cases would be breakthroughs, but we'd expect the more people vaccinated, the fewer people end up in the hospital. However hospitals are still having to cancel elective surgeries, call the military/National Guard for help, etc, which means the effect is not good enough right now.

Many here fail to understand this.
They actually just love to skip-over such stories and go into their pretend-world that it is not happening.
I posted a story of a hospital in Michigan, where the staff are exhausted, both physically and emotionally from all the Covid sick & dying. One nurse said she had her first panic-attack in the parking lot, when she drove-in to start her shift. She broke-down and found it difficult just to get out of her car, and go inside the hospital.
This entire hospital also had to cancel most surgeries and other high-level medical procedures, just to accommodate all the Covid patients.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470393608654237701

There are 4,713 confirmed cases of the Omicron variant but Mr Javid said the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) estimated the current number of daily infections was around 200,000.

Omicron has risen to more than 44% of cases in London and is expected to become the dominant variant in the city in the next 48 hours, he said.

The 200,000 figure for Omicron infections is based upon UKHSA modelling. BBC medical editor Fergus Walsh said with Omicron doubling every two to three days, it could go from a small to a huge number very quickly.

On Saturday, Britain reported 633 new confirmed cases of the omicron variant; on Sunday, 1,239; and on Monday, 1,576 — bringing the total count to 4,713 confirmed cases in the country, going back to Nov. 20.

On Friday, the U.K. Health Security Agency reported that two doses of either the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccine offered poor protection against symptomatic infection by omicron.

The primary two doses of the Pfizer vaccine gave 30 to 40 percent protection against symptomatic illness from 25 weeks after second dose. AstraZeneca provided even less protection, though the sample size of the study was so small that scientists are cautious.

The good news: The health services agency said preliminary studies found that a booster jab of Pfizer would likely raise protection from omicron considerably — to between 70 and 75 percent.

[emailking]

200,000 a day in the UK? That's way more than they've ever had.

[Torie]

Notice that a quarter of the ICU cases are breakthrough cases, and that the queues for surgeries are long due to a lack of ICU beds. I am extremely concerned about Omicron variant.

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-intensive-care-unit-coronavirus-trial-survival/

Delta is by far the dominant variant in most of Europe right now, where are you getting Omicron being an issue from? All data coming out of South Africa, where it is dominant, is still indicating milder symptoms.

Guess what, CNN? Nobody cares. I've been vaccinated, so what else does CNN want me to do? Wear 3 masks?

You apparently care enough to make this absurd comment that adds no value to the thread.

 I hope you are right. What I have read suggests as to an otherwise far more contagious variant, with milder an open question, particularly how much milder, , but I have no desire to be your interlocutor  on this one any further, so let the public square take a default judgement against me.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1470504334823731205
From scientific point of view this scenario would be kinda amazing and cool, if it weren't about a deadly virus. (Read Trevor Bedford's thread).

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1470504334823731205
From scientific point of view this scenario would be kinda amazing and cool, if it weren't about a deadly virus. (Read Trevor Bedford's thread).

I've thought of this too, and it's a truly disastrous scenario. It would be like if we had COVID-19 and COVID-21 spreading unchecked at the same time, during the winter, both extremely contagious and capable of causing excessive hospitalizations and deaths (although severity of Omicron is still looking mild).

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1470504334823731205
From scientific point of view this scenario would be kinda amazing and cool, if it weren't about a deadly virus. (Read Trevor Bedford's thread).

I've thought of this too, and it's a truly disastrous scenario. It would be like if we had COVID-19 and COVID-21 spreading unchecked at the same time, during the winter, both extremely contagious and capable of causing excessive hospitalizations and deaths (although severity of Omicron is still looking mild).

Eh…but getting one will probably cause a huge amount of resistance (even if not full resistance) to the other even with some spike changes.
I think we need to know exactly what the rate of reinfection is first, that would determine the viability of such a scenario, because while they may have their differences, I am guessing there is at least some immunity carried over, even if not the “full” protection one would want. That plus the vaccine.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.ft.com/content/16796f92-5845-4b83-8e96-39d5c2fd13ea
Pfizer says Covid drug offers strong protection and should work against Omicron
Data confirm Paxlovid cuts risk of hospitalisation or death by 89% for highly vulnerable patients

Pfizer’s Covid-19 antiviral pill cuts the risk of hospitalisation or death by up to 89 per cent in high-risk patients, according to final trial results that confirm earlier data.

The positive results come after a rival antiviral from Merck proved less effective than initially hoped and at a time when the new Omicron variant surges in several countries.

Although the trial was held while Delta was the dominant coronavirus variant, Pfizer believes the antiviral, known as Paxlovid, is likely to work against Omicron. An early lab study showed it continued to work against Omicron, and other studies are under way.

BOOM!

A game-changer*! Pfizer 🚀🚀🚀.


^{*for rich countries only, a course costs ~1000$.}


https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1470728170928324609

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

First preliminary non-peer-reviewed study from South Africa re:Omicon.


https://twitter.com/ReutersAfrica/status/1470723224942034944
In South Africa Omicron wave, Pfizer vaccine less effective against hospitalisation - study

• 2 doses of Pfizer shot provide 70% protection against hospitalisation - study
• Findings are some of the earliest outside of lab studies
• Data preliminary, but encouraging - scientist

JOHANNESBURG, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine appear to have given 70% protection against hospitalisation in South Africa in recent weeks, according to a major real-world study which suggests weaker efficacy against the new Omicron variant.

The study released on Tuesday by South Africa's largest private health insurance administrator, Discovery Health, was based on more than 211,000 positive COVID-19 test results. Around 78,000 of those results from Nov. 15 to Dec. 7 were attributed to Omicron.

Based on analysis by Discovery's (DSYJ.J) clinical research and actuarial teams, and in collaboration with the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), the study calculated that two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech offered 70% protection against hospitalisation compared with the unvaccinated during the recent surge in cases and 33% protection against infection.

It said this represents a drop from 80% protection against infection and compares with 93% efficacy against hospital admission during South Africa's outbreak of the Delta variant, which is the globally dominant variant and considered to be the most infectious to emerge during the pandemic.

Discovery cautioned that the study's findings should be considered preliminary.

So 2 doses Pfizer gave 70% efficacy against hospitalization (Omicron), but only 33% against being infected. But:

With 70% or more of the South African population estimated to have been exposed to COVID-19 over the past 18 months, high estimated levels of antibodies in the population might be skewing the data.

"This could be a confounding factor for these hospital admission and severity indicators during this Omicron wave," Ryan Noach, chief executive of Discovery Health, said in a briefing on the study.

So you have to wait the data from UK anyway

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

First preliminary non-peer-reviewed study from South Africa re:Omicon.


https://twitter.com/ReutersAfrica/status/1470723224942034944
In South Africa Omicron wave, Pfizer vaccine less effective against hospitalisation - study

• 2 doses of Pfizer shot provide 70% protection against hospitalisation - study
• Findings are some of the earliest outside of lab studies
• Data preliminary, but encouraging - scientist

JOHANNESBURG, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine appear to have given 70% protection against hospitalisation in South Africa in recent weeks, according to a major real-world study which suggests weaker efficacy against the new Omicron variant.

The study released on Tuesday by South Africa's largest private health insurance administrator, Discovery Health, was based on more than 211,000 positive COVID-19 test results. Around 78,000 of those results from Nov. 15 to Dec. 7 were attributed to Omicron.

Based on analysis by Discovery's (DSYJ.J) clinical research and actuarial teams, and in collaboration with the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), the study calculated that two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech offered 70% protection against hospitalisation compared with the unvaccinated during the recent surge in cases and 33% protection against infection.

It said this represents a drop from 80% protection against infection and compares with 93% efficacy against hospital admission during South Africa's outbreak of the Delta variant, which is the globally dominant variant and considered to be the most infectious to emerge during the pandemic.

Discovery cautioned that the study's findings should be considered preliminary.

So 2 doses Pfizer gave 70% efficacy against hospitalization (Omicron), but only 33% against being infected. But:

With 70% or more of the South African population estimated to have been exposed to COVID-19 over the past 18 months, high estimated levels of antibodies in the population might be skewing the data.

"This could be a confounding factor for these hospital admission and severity indicators during this Omicron wave," Ryan Noach, chief executive of Discovery Health, said in a briefing on the study.

So you have to wait the data from UK anyway

This same study also finds (as many of us suspected for a while) that Omicron is less severe than other variants.

Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe covid, major South African study concludes

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

First preliminary non-peer-reviewed study from South Africa re:Omicon.


https://twitter.com/ReutersAfrica/status/1470723224942034944
In South Africa Omicron wave, Pfizer vaccine less effective against hospitalisation - study

• 2 doses of Pfizer shot provide 70% protection against hospitalisation - study
• Findings are some of the earliest outside of lab studies
• Data preliminary, but encouraging - scientist

JOHANNESBURG, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine appear to have given 70% protection against hospitalisation in South Africa in recent weeks, according to a major real-world study which suggests weaker efficacy against the new Omicron variant.

The study released on Tuesday by South Africa's largest private health insurance administrator, Discovery Health, was based on more than 211,000 positive COVID-19 test results. Around 78,000 of those results from Nov. 15 to Dec. 7 were attributed to Omicron.

Based on analysis by Discovery's (DSYJ.J) clinical research and actuarial teams, and in collaboration with the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), the study calculated that two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech offered 70% protection against hospitalisation compared with the unvaccinated during the recent surge in cases and 33% protection against infection.

It said this represents a drop from 80% protection against infection and compares with 93% efficacy against hospital admission during South Africa's outbreak of the Delta variant, which is the globally dominant variant and considered to be the most infectious to emerge during the pandemic.

Discovery cautioned that the study's findings should be considered preliminary.

So 2 doses Pfizer gave 70% efficacy against hospitalization (Omicron), but only 33% against being infected. But:

With 70% or more of the South African population estimated to have been exposed to COVID-19 over the past 18 months, high estimated levels of antibodies in the population might be skewing the data.

"This could be a confounding factor for these hospital admission and severity indicators during this Omicron wave," Ryan Noach, chief executive of Discovery Health, said in a briefing on the study.

So you have to wait the data from UK anyway

This same study also finds (as many of us suspected for a while) that Omicron is less severe than other variants.

Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe covid, major South African study concludes

Interesting. Strange that Reuters totally omitted it.

Still after having read WaPo, I don't understand, if they adjusted for that fact that 70+% had already been infected by earlier variants or not. Reuters mention this fact and that this might screw the data.

With 70% or more of the South African population estimated to have been exposed to COVID-19 over the past 18 months, high estimated levels of antibodies in the population might be skewing the data.

"This could be a confounding factor for these hospital admission and severity indicators during this Omicron wave," Ryan Noach, chief executive of Discovery Health, said in a briefing on the study.

[compucomp]

First preliminary non-peer-reviewed study from South Africa re:Omicon.


https://twitter.com/ReutersAfrica/status/1470723224942034944
In South Africa Omicron wave, Pfizer vaccine less effective against hospitalisation - study

• 2 doses of Pfizer shot provide 70% protection against hospitalisation - study
• Findings are some of the earliest outside of lab studies
• Data preliminary, but encouraging - scientist

JOHANNESBURG, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine appear to have given 70% protection against hospitalisation in South Africa in recent weeks, according to a major real-world study which suggests weaker efficacy against the new Omicron variant.

The study released on Tuesday by South Africa's largest private health insurance administrator, Discovery Health, was based on more than 211,000 positive COVID-19 test results. Around 78,000 of those results from Nov. 15 to Dec. 7 were attributed to Omicron.

Based on analysis by Discovery's (DSYJ.J) clinical research and actuarial teams, and in collaboration with the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), the study calculated that two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech offered 70% protection against hospitalisation compared with the unvaccinated during the recent surge in cases and 33% protection against infection.

It said this represents a drop from 80% protection against infection and compares with 93% efficacy against hospital admission during South Africa's outbreak of the Delta variant, which is the globally dominant variant and considered to be the most infectious to emerge during the pandemic.

Discovery cautioned that the study's findings should be considered preliminary.

So 2 doses Pfizer gave 70% efficacy against hospitalization (Omicron), but only 33% against being infected. But:

With 70% or more of the South African population estimated to have been exposed to COVID-19 over the past 18 months, high estimated levels of antibodies in the population might be skewing the data.

"This could be a confounding factor for these hospital admission and severity indicators during this Omicron wave," Ryan Noach, chief executive of Discovery Health, said in a briefing on the study.

So you have to wait the data from UK anyway

This same study also finds (as many of us suspected for a while) that Omicron is less severe than other variants.

Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe covid, major South African study concludes

Interesting. Strange that Reuters totally omitted it.

Still after having read WaPo, I don't understand, if they adjusted for that fact that 70+% had already been infected by earlier variants or not. Reuters mention this fact and that this might screw the data.

With 70% or more of the South African population estimated to have been exposed to COVID-19 over the past 18 months, high estimated levels of antibodies in the population might be skewing the data.

"This could be a confounding factor for these hospital admission and severity indicators during this Omicron wave," Ryan Noach, chief executive of Discovery Health, said in a briefing on the study.

The same or a higher percentage have been infected or vaccinated in Western countries, so we should expect a similar if not better level of immunity. However the age profile of South Africa is much younger than in Western countries. As before we need to observe what happens in the UK and that will be a good benchmark for what will happen here.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For context, what is the death rate for a common cold? Death from a common cold is rare, but it does happen. Just ask George Washington.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For context, what is the death rate for a common cold? Death from a common cold is rare, but it does happen. Just ask George Washington.

You know, I think there have been a few advances in medicine since 1799.

[DabbingSanta]

Amazingly, once you leave middle America, there are very few places around the world where you can go without experiencing ridiculous COVID restrictions. You got Sweden, Finland, parts of Mexico and the Caribbean.  That's about it.  China and the WHO have won, hard not to believe tyranny is here to stay and we are just fighting for time.

[Edu]

Amazingly, once you leave middle America, there are very few places around the world where you can go without experiencing ridiculous COVID restrictions. You got Sweden, Finland, parts of Mexico and the Caribbean.  That's about it.  China and the WHO have won, hard not to believe tyranny is here to stay and we are just fighting for time.

This sounds like nonsense, unless you are greatly exaggerating "ridiculous COVID restrictions"

[Hammy]

The study above doesn't actually study Omicron cases, but total cases--and they're estimating how many cases are in there via extrapolation.

More than likely, the drop in hospital protection is a combination of waning immunity and the large number of people that are hospitalized for other things, and test positive on screening.

The 78,000 cases were attributed to Omicron based on the relative prevalence of the variant within the country over the study period, but because they have not been confirmed as being the new variant the study cannot offer conclusive findings.]The 78,000 cases were attributed to Omicron based on the relative prevalence of the variant within the country over the study period, but because they have not been confirmed as being the new variant the study cannot offer conclusive findings.

[Lief 🗽]

Amazingly, once you leave middle America, there are very few places around the world where you can go without experiencing ridiculous COVID restrictions. You got Sweden, Finland, parts of Mexico and the Caribbean.  That's about it.  China and the WHO have won, hard not to believe tyranny is here to stay and we are just fighting for time.

Having to show your vaccination card to eat maskless in a packed restaurant is not a “ridiculous covid restriction.”

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Amazingly, once you leave middle America, there are very few places around the world where you can go without experiencing ridiculous COVID restrictions. You got Sweden, Finland, parts of Mexico and the Caribbean.  That's about it.  China and the WHO have won, hard not to believe tyranny is here to stay and we are just fighting for time.

Having to show your vaccination card to eat maskless in a packed restaurant is not a “ridiculous covid restriction.”

Yes, it absurd and ridiculous. It extends a TSA national security apparatus into everyday life as a substitute for simply requiring people to be vaccinated or, even better, accepting the risks of allowing some to be unvaccinated until they learn that vaccines are safe and effective, which will happen with time.

[Lief 🗽]

Amazingly, once you leave middle America, there are very few places around the world where you can go without experiencing ridiculous COVID restrictions. You got Sweden, Finland, parts of Mexico and the Caribbean.  That's about it.  China and the WHO have won, hard not to believe tyranny is here to stay and we are just fighting for time.

Having to show your vaccination card to eat maskless in a packed restaurant is not a “ridiculous covid restriction.”

Yes, it absurd and ridiculous. It extends a TSA national security apparatus into everyday life as a substitute for simply requiring people to be vaccinated or, even better, accepting the risks of allowing some to be unvaccinated until they learn that vaccines are safe and effective, which will happen with time.

I mean, I live in NYC where you have to actually do this. It’s fine, it takes like ten seconds, and is in no way comparable to the TSA. Obviously I’d prefer to just force everyone to be vaccinated like based Austria but I’m pretty sure that would cause a civil war at this point.