COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Horus]

At this point pretty much every state has led the country in COVID cases at one point or another. Polis, comparatively, has done much better than say Cuomo or DeSantis.

[Pericles]

Has any thought been given to how the US could respond if the virus in the next pandemic turns out to be as contagious as Delta? So firstly, extrapolating from this graph, at the peak of the current Delta wave, just simply taking the death rate from the unvaccinated population and applying it to the entire US population means the death toll would have been over 6,000 a day, double the actual peak. It's impossible to know how the wave would have gone in this hypothetical, but it's easy to see that with millions more vulnerable elderly people and no vaccines limiting the spread of the virus, the death toll would be even higher.


It is also clear from the Australian and NZ experience that lockdowns, even in a partially vaccinated population, do not stop Delta spreading but merely slow the growth of case numbers. This does not mean that lockdowns are useless, because if you went against Delta with no lockdown and no vaccine, inevitably the healthcare system would be overwhelmed very quickly. However, locking down for a year as a deliberate policy while you wait for the vaccines is unlikely to be acceptable in most countries and not in the US. So it's a very scary scenario and I don't have a good answer for it.

[pbrower2a]

Vaccinated people are obviously not the problem. COVID-19 would be dead in America if all people eligible for inoculation were inoculated. Of course we have plenty of stupid or deluded people who believe... whatever. I'd rather that they believed in something less harmful to believe, such as the chance of the Detroit Lions Football Team (now 0-7) having a reasonable chance of winning the 2022 Superbowl.     

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Seriously, how many people are there remaining in the U.S. to be infected? The herd immunity threshold had been placed at 70%, and there are enough people who are either vaccinated or already infected that almost every state has blasted past 70%. Even assuming that vaccination is less than 100% effective, and that there's some overlap between people who are vaccinated and already infected, the herd immunity threshold has clearly been reached almost everywhere.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gregorykorte/status/1454164918832451584

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

According to the Washington Post here, Florida now has the -lowest- covid case rate in the country.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

According to the Washington Post here, Florida now has the -lowest- covid case rate in the country.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

Almost as if few of the measures actually matter besides the overall health of the citizenry, vaccinations, and how the elderly are protected.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to the Washington Post here, Florida now has the -lowest- covid case rate in the country.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/

Yeah, a lot of MAGA twitter is celebrating this news, as if 60K people didn't perish.

[_.]

It's weird all of you all are talking about religion being the reason Black vaccination rates are low

But have you considered the facts that show that 64% of U.S. adults who typically attend a Historically Black denomination say that their clergy have encouraged people to get a COVID-19 vaccination, while only 2% say their clergy has discouraged it?

Image Link

And then on top of this, regular attenders of historically Black Protestant churches are far, far more likely to have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine than infrequent attenders (82% vs. 60%).

Image Link

[_.]

Unfortunately, there are certain Northern states which aren't doing so hot in terms of vaccination rates, such as Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.

Personally, I'm watching for a spike in those regions starting Fall at a similar level as is being seen in the Deep South right now (like what happened last year). Fingers crossed that it doesn't happen, but it doesn't seem likely at this time.

This isn't even to speak of the Interior Northwest, where Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas are looking to break all records per capita despite it not even being close to winter yet. They should be getting ready, though.

Image Link

I will now accept my accolades. 

Seriously, though, these states are not budging from the top spots. It's been quite a while. And their numbers have been up high for a while as well.

It's conceivable that West Virginia takes the top spot for COVID-19 deaths during the end if nothing gets fixed.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Seems like the decline in US covid cases has stalled out in the last week.  Probably too early to draw and strong conclusions, but this does seem a little concerning.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Seems like the decline in US covid cases has stalled out in the last week.  Probably too early to draw and strong conclusions, but this does seem a little concerning.

Things are getting colder and people are spending more time indoors. It's about when I'd expect the decrease to slack off, but hopefully another surge isn't coming.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The 7-day average is probably dropping by only about 1% per day, but at this time last year, it was increasing by about 3% per day.

[Not Me, Us]

The 7-day average is probably dropping by only about 1% per day, but at this time last year, it was increasing by about 3% per day.

We also didn't have vaccines. The Winter wave last year was primarily driven by northern states iirc, and this year those states have some of the best vaccination rates by and large. I think we're undoubtedly in a better spot than last year and I don't see how we could realistically reach last Winter's levels.

[roxas11]

It's weird all of you all are talking about religion being the reason Black vaccination rates are low

But have you considered the facts that show that 64% of U.S. adults who typically attend a Historically Black denomination say that their clergy have encouraged people to get a COVID-19 vaccination, while only 2% say their clergy has discouraged it?

Image Link

And then on top of this, regular attenders of historically Black Protestant churches are far, far more likely to have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine than infrequent attenders (82% vs. 60%).

Image Link

When I brought up religion, I was speaking mostly about my own experiences as a black person. I don't personally believe religion is at fault here, but that is what keeps coming up every time a friend or family member tells me why they don't want to get vaccinated.

They either believe that the vaccines are the mark of the beast or they are convinced its the end times because what some idiot on social media told them. I suspect what is really going on here is that a lot of people in my state of lousisna are buying into the conspiracy theories on the internet.

A lot of these Anti-vax people online are using religion as a way to appeal to people who tend be more culturally conservative and because of that our state suffered when Delta hit us

I think Facebook is the main reason for vaccine hesitancy among everyone and as long as it exists I don't believe we will be able to stop any future viruses from spreading

[_.]

I think Facebook is the main reason for vaccine hesitancy among everyone

I can't disagree with you here

[Hammy]

Seriously, how many people are there remaining in the U.S. to be infected? The herd immunity threshold had been placed at 70%, and there are enough people who are either vaccinated or already infected that almost every state has blasted past 70%. Even assuming that vaccination is less than 100% effective, and that there's some overlap between people who are vaccinated and already infected, the herd immunity threshold has clearly been reached almost everywhere.

Vaccination distribution is extremely uneven. It doesn't matter if you have 85% of the country immune, if those who aren't are all in the same place they're just going to keep spreading it and creating new variants.

Not to mention you're not factoring in that immunity wanes with Pfizer's vaccine as they used about 1/3 of the dose so those who are more than six months out without a booster can still spread it.

[ProudModerate2]

Video.
Covid-19 vaccine or her marriage: The impossible choice she had to make.

https://us.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/10/28/covid-19-vaccine-conspiracy-theory-divorce-jg-me-orig.cnn

Crazy situation.
This poor woman had her husband tell her not to get vaccinated, because hanging-around people who are vaccinated, will change your DNA.
Click the link above for a short story video on this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Video.
Covid-19 vaccine or her marriage: The impossible choice she had to make.

https://us.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/10/28/covid-19-vaccine-conspiracy-theory-divorce-jg-me-orig.cnn

Crazy situation.
This poor woman had her husband tell her not to get vaccinated, because hanging-around people who are vaccinated, will change your DNA.
Click the link above for a short story video on this.

Sad stuff.

[_.]

UPDATE! SEPTEMBER 30 WITH 2020 CENSUS DATA!

(...)

UPDATE! OCTOBER 15!

1. (+11) 335 - Mississippi
2. (+9) 307 - Louisiana
3. (+16) 301 - Alabama
4. (+3) 298 - New Jersey
5. (+7) 286 - Arizona
6. (+3) 276 - New York
7. (+16) 271 - Arkansas
8. (+13) 268 - Florida
9. (+2) 267 - Massachusetts
10. (+3) 261 - Rhode Island

11. (+15) 257 - Georgia
11. (+13) 257 - South Carolina
13. (+5) 246- South Dakota
14. (+2) 241 - Connecticut
15. (+9) 239 - Indiana
15. (+10) 239 - Nevada
15. (+12) 239 - Oklahoma
18. (+6) 233 - Pennsylvania
19. (+5) 232 - New Mexico
20. (+13) 231 - Texas

21. (+10) 228 - Tennessee
22. (+5) 227 - Michigan
23. (+23) 226 - West Virginia
24. (+4) 220 - Illinois
25. (+7) 214 - North Dakota
26. (+6) 212 - Iowa
27. (+3) 209 - Kansas
28. (+13) 206 - Kentucky
29. (+6) 203 - Delaware
30. (+?) 196 - Montana

UPDATE! OCTOBER 30!

1. (+5) 340 - Mississippi
2. (+5) 312 - Louisiana
3. (+9) 310 - Alabama
4. (+3) 301 - New Jersey
5. (+9) 295 - Arizona
6. (+3) 279 - New York
7. (+6) 277 - Arkansas
8. (+8) 276 - Florida
9. (+34) 273 - Oklahoma
10. (+14) 271 - Georgia

11. (+3) 270 - Massachusetts
12. (+10) 267 - South Carolina
13. (+1) 262 - Rhode Island
14. (+6) 252 - South Dakota
15. (+21) 247 - West Virginia
16. (+7) 246 - Indiana
16. (+7) 246 - Nevada
18. (+2) 243 - Connecticut
19. (+8) 241 - Pennsylvania
20. (+9) 240 - Texas

21. (+6) 238 - New Mexico
22. (+9) 237 - Tennessee
23. (+8) 235 - Michigan
24. (+12) 226 - North Dakota
25. (+3) 223 - Illinois
26. (+9) 218 - Kansas
26. (+6) 218 - Iowa
28. (+11) 217 - Kentucky
29. (+20) 216 - Montana
30. (+8) 211 - Delaware

Ah crap you all just look at that Oklahoma number. Literally burst into the top ten
Insane stuff, did they just dump some data?

[DINGO Joe]

UPDATE! SEPTEMBER 30 WITH 2020 CENSUS DATA!

(...)

UPDATE! OCTOBER 15!

1. (+11) 335 - Mississippi
2. (+9) 307 - Louisiana
3. (+16) 301 - Alabama
4. (+3) 298 - New Jersey
5. (+7) 286 - Arizona
6. (+3) 276 - New York
7. (+16) 271 - Arkansas
8. (+13) 268 - Florida
9. (+2) 267 - Massachusetts
10. (+3) 261 - Rhode Island

11. (+15) 257 - Georgia
11. (+13) 257 - South Carolina
13. (+5) 246- South Dakota
14. (+2) 241 - Connecticut
15. (+9) 239 - Indiana
15. (+10) 239 - Nevada
15. (+12) 239 - Oklahoma
18. (+6) 233 - Pennsylvania
19. (+5) 232 - New Mexico
20. (+13) 231 - Texas

21. (+10) 228 - Tennessee
22. (+5) 227 - Michigan
23. (+23) 226 - West Virginia
24. (+4) 220 - Illinois
25. (+7) 214 - North Dakota
26. (+6) 212 - Iowa
27. (+3) 209 - Kansas
28. (+13) 206 - Kentucky
29. (+6) 203 - Delaware
30. (+?) 196 - Montana

UPDATE! OCTOBER 30!

1. (+5) 340 - Mississippi
2. (+5) 312 - Louisiana
3. (+9) 310 - Alabama
4. (+3) 301 - New Jersey
5. (+9) 295 - Arizona
6. (+3) 279 - New York
7. (+6) 277 - Arkansas
8. (+8) 276 - Florida
9. (+34) 273 - Oklahoma
10. (+14) 271 - Georgia

11. (+3) 270 - Massachusetts
12. (+10) 267 - South Carolina
13. (+1) 262 - Rhode Island
14. (+6) 252 - South Dakota
15. (+21) 247 - West Virginia
16. (+7) 246 - Indiana
16. (+7) 246 - Nevada
18. (+2) 243 - Connecticut
19. (+8) 241 - Pennsylvania
20. (+9) 240 - Texas

21. (+6) 238 - New Mexico
22. (+9) 237 - Tennessee
23. (+8) 235 - Michigan
24. (+12) 226 - North Dakota
25. (+3) 223 - Illinois
26. (+9) 218 - Kansas
26. (+6) 218 - Iowa
28. (+11) 217 - Kentucky
29. (+20) 216 - Montana
30. (+8) 211 - Delaware

Ah crap you all just look at that Oklahoma number. Literally burst into the top ten
Insane stuff, did they just dump some data?

Oklahoma reports two numbers--the number of deaths reported to the CDC and an "investigated deaths" number from the state health board.  The CDC number (which is used by the WaPo updates every weekday, while the "investigated number updates once or twice a week and is prone to "dumps".  Really, it just seems like an attempt to slow roll the numbers and the local media seems to use the CDC numbers anyway.  So I use those,  which actually makes Oklahoma even higher at 286.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1454493304377135109

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is he removing all other vaccine requirements in Florida schools?

[2016]

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki tested positive for COVID
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/jen-psaki-tests-positive-for-covid-19

[CEO Mindset]

Seriously, how many people are there remaining in the U.S. to be infected? The herd immunity threshold had been placed at 70%, and there are enough people who are either vaccinated or already infected that almost every state has blasted past 70%. Even assuming that vaccination is less than 100% effective, and that there's some overlap between people who are vaccinated and already infected, the herd immunity threshold has clearly been reached almost everywhere.

they use test results to justify everything, doesn't matter if everyone's asymptomatic