COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

"$1,000+ deaths a day is an acceptable price to pay for normal life" That's the choice you are making.

As opposed to the 2,000 we were seeing under full lockdowns.

[Pericles]

"$1,000+ deaths a day is an acceptable price to pay for normal life" That's the choice you are making.

As opposed to the 2,000 we were seeing under full lockdowns.

Please explain your novel epidemiological theory as to how reducing social contact increases cases and deaths from Covid-19.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Please explain your novel epidemiological theory as to how reducing social contact increases cases and deaths from Covid-19.

Why were there so many more cases when lockdowns were worse (at least in the U.S.)?

[Brittain33]

Please explain your novel epidemiological theory as to how reducing social contact increases cases and deaths from Covid-19.

Why were there so many more cases when lockdowns were worse (at least in the U.S.)?

Because the lockdowns started too late after weeks of community spread in dense cities with zero social distancing.

Because when the disease began, we knew too little about how to treat it effectively and our health care system was unprepared to collaborate across hospitals and jurisdictions effectively.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please explain your novel epidemiological theory as to how reducing social contact increases cases and deaths from Covid-19.

Why were there so many more cases when lockdowns were worse (at least in the U.S.)?

Because the lockdowns helped slow down the rate of infection, which in turn slowed down the number of deaths.  But there is a time lag in both of those steps.

When it's hot inside a building, the air conditioning turns on.  It gradually cools off the air temperature and then turns off.  Following your logic, the AC is ineffective because it was hotter in the building while the AC was running than after it turned off.

[jimrtex]

University of Georgia health faculty: Campus is in "grave danger".

If 4% of students are currently infected, what percentage of students have been previously infected and have developed resistance to future infection?

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/yascha_mounk/status/1297226437905260545?s=21

I fear that if students can't socialize, the resulting anxiety and depression will be far more dangerous than the functionally 0% death rate 21 year olds have from COVID. 

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/yascha_mounk/status/1297226437905260545?s=21

I fear that if students can't socialize, the resulting anxiety and depression will be far more dangerous than the functionally 0% death rate 21 year olds have from COVID. 

I'm also wary of the financial impact which the reversion to online learning will have for many students. Tuition costs remain the same regardless of format, and I don't think online education provides the same utility as in-person instruction. What kind of lasting effects will the pandemic have on college enrollment? And might it encourage prospective students to consider alternatives?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

At a certain point, I care more about my mental and physical health than I care about stopping the spread of a virus that we can’t seem to contain. I’ve developed severe anxiety, depression, body dysmorphia and other issues. I haven’t had a good nights of sleep in weeks. I’ve lost a lot of weight and now look frail. I’m constantly stressed out and get angry over little things. I’m scared of talking to people. I’ve been very good at isolating myself and socially distancing, but I’m starting to reach a breaking point. My plan at UGA is to mostly isolate myself until October, but I honestly will probably only be able to do it until mid September.


I need to know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t want to sacrifice my health and youth for much longer. This virus isn’t bad enough for me to want to do that. There actually is a lot of negative harmful effects of socially distancing for so long. How much more do you guys want me to sacrifice?

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/yascha_mounk/status/1297226437905260545?s=21

I fear that if students can't socialize, the resulting anxiety and depression will be far more dangerous than the functionally 0% death rate 21 year olds have from COVID. 

I'm also wary of the financial impact which the reversion to online learning will have for many students. Tuition costs remain the same regardless of format, and I don't think online education provides the same utility as in-person instruction. What kind of lasting effects will the pandemic have on college enrollment? And might it encourage prospective students to consider alternatives?

Considering the cost, college as it's been known for a long time should really have started to have been rethought some years ago. Maybe the track for many should be a 3-year program instead. Obviously, some majors would have a longer program and some would go on to post-grad. For many people, the 4-year Bachelor's is nothing more than a piece of paper saying they went to college. They're just overqualified for flipping burgers and under a mountain of debt. I realize that's getting a little side-tracked from the issue at hand.

In terms of the actual education provided, many general education classes can easily be done online. I'm thinking classes like your basic English and whatever starting math you get placed in. But you raise a good point about the cost. Why would you want to pay a premium for an online general education class when you can pay much less for the same basic thing at a community college (which tend to be directly transferable, at least to state colleges)? That's something you could ask already though, which would lead back to my first question and the one you got me to ask. That doesn't mean they're questions that shouldn't be asked, however.

[emailking]

I need to know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t want to sacrifice my health and youth for much longer. This virus isn’t bad enough for me to want to do that. There actually is a lot of negative harmful effects of socially distancing for so long. How much more do you guys want me to sacrifice?

Wear a mask is all I want.

[cg41386]

At a certain point, I care more about my mental and physical health than I care about stopping the spread of a virus that we can’t seem to contain. I’ve developed severe anxiety, depression, body dysmorphia and other issues. I haven’t had a good nights of sleep in weeks. I’ve lost a lot of weight and now look frail. I’m constantly stressed out and get angry over little things. I’m scared of talking to people. I’ve been very good at isolating myself and socially distancing, but I’m starting to reach a breaking point. My plan at UGA is to mostly isolate myself until October, but I honestly will probably only be able to do it until mid September.


I need to know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t want to sacrifice my health and youth for much longer. This virus isn’t bad enough for me to want to do that. There actually is a lot of negative harmful effects of socially distancing for so long. How much more do you guys want me to sacrifice?

You don’t need to isolate yourself. You need to be careful with what you do. It really sounds like there is more going on beyond this, but I’m not a doctor.

[cg41386]

https://twitter.com/yascha_mounk/status/1297226437905260545?s=21

I fear that if students can't socialize, the resulting anxiety and depression will be far more dangerous than the functionally 0% death rate 21 year olds have from COVID. 

They can socialize if they do it responsibly. If they have anxiety or depression, aren’t there counselors or something on campus to talk to?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/yascha_mounk/status/1297226437905260545?s=21

I fear that if students can't socialize, the resulting anxiety and depression will be far more dangerous than the functionally 0% death rate 21 year olds have from COVID. 

I'm also wary of the financial impact which the reversion to online learning will have for many students. Tuition costs remain the same regardless of format, and I don't think online education provides the same utility as in-person instruction. What kind of lasting effects will the pandemic have on college enrollment? And might it encourage prospective students to consider alternatives?

Considering the cost, college as it's been known for a long time should really have started to have been rethought some years ago. Maybe the track for many should be a 3-year program instead. Obviously, some majors would have a longer program and some would go on to post-grad. For many people, the 4-year Bachelor's is nothing more than a piece of paper saying they went to college. They're just overqualified for flipping burgers and under a mountain of debt. I realize that's getting a little side-tracked from the issue at hand.

In terms of the actual education provided, many general education classes can easily be done online. I'm thinking classes like your basic English and whatever starting math you get placed in. But you raise a good point about the cost. Why would you want to pay a premium for an online general education class when you can pay much less for the same basic thing at a community college (which tend to be directly transferable, at least to state colleges)? That's something you could ask already though, which would lead back to my first question and the one you got me to ask. That doesn't mean they're questions that shouldn't be asked, however.

I certainly agree with you here, being a recent college graduate myself (having graduated back in May). Thanks to the scholarships that I had, I'm lucky that I don't have student debt, but I'm uncertain about my career prospects at this juncture. And I've become convinced that many of the classes which I took in college were a waste of my time and attention, and I would have been better acquitted by taking classes that would have been more relevant, and of greater utility to me. Obviously, the pandemic has worsened the situation for many students, who are facing, or will be facing, the same problems that I did. Many students, as you are probably aware, are taking a gap year, so that they can resume their education when all of this nonsense has finally settled down.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I need to know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t want to sacrifice my health and youth for much longer. This virus isn’t bad enough for me to want to do that. There actually is a lot of negative harmful effects of socially distancing for so long. How much more do you guys want me to sacrifice?

Wear a mask is all I want.

Is that really all you want?

I'm obviously wearing a mask, but businesses are doing far more than just imposing mask restrictions. Many are limiting capacity, limiting where you can go, asking that you maintain a far distance, completely changing their service, etc. Some restaurants are completely different. And they have to do that for liability issues, because the democratic party does not want to pass liability protections for businesses.

Also, a lot of people are calling for schools to be closed down, when I strongly benefit from in-person instruction. I'm really trying but I barely learn from online classes. I need the in-person social interaction. Maybe online learning works for you guys, but I don't have the privilege of being able to learn effectively online. But, again, the democratic party is generally asking for schools to be shut down and be online only.

I just want the democratic party to not push for things that make my quality of life significantly worse. I'm willing to risk getting coronavirus. Let me live my f!cking life. I've sacrificed enough. And I want people here to stop mocking people who want to do things that make their mental health better. I'm not partying right now, but some people really need to in order to blow off some steam.

[emailking]

I'm fine with limited capacity at business. I haven't called for universities to shut down. There may be some instances where it's appropriate. I think if everyone wore a mask outside of their dorms/apartments and sanitized their hands frequently it would be fine. So yes wear your mask and go see your friends, don't get right in their faces, try not to yell, and I'm good with it.

[cg41386]

I need to know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t want to sacrifice my health and youth for much longer. This virus isn’t bad enough for me to want to do that. There actually is a lot of negative harmful effects of socially distancing for so long. How much more do you guys want me to sacrifice?

Wear a mask is all I want.

Is that really all you want?

I'm obviously wearing a mask, but businesses are doing far more than just imposing mask restrictions. Many are limiting capacity, limiting where you can go, asking that you maintain a far distance, completely changing their service, etc. Some restaurants are completely different. And they have to do that for liability issues, because the democratic party does not want to pass liability protections for businesses.

Also, a lot of people are calling for schools to be closed down, when I strongly benefit from in-person instruction. I'm really trying but I barely learn from online classes. I need the in-person social interaction. Maybe online learning works for you guys, but I don't have the privilege of being able to learn effectively online. But, again, the democratic party is generally asking for schools to be shut down and be online only.

I just want the democratic party to not push for things that make my quality of life significantly worse. I'm willing to risk getting coronavirus. Let me live my f!cking life. I've sacrificed enough. And I want people here to stop mocking people who want to do things that make their mental health better. I'm not partying right now, but some people really need to in order to blow off some steam.

I don’t mean to sound like a prick, but the world doesn’t revolve around you. The entire world is being effected right now. Partying isn’t a necessity, there are other ways to blow off steam. Nobody is mocking you, we’re just being real. Time to get creative to find ways to better yourself. I don’t know what else to tell you, this is the current situation, and nobody knows how much longer it will be this way. Everyone has to deal with it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I need to know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t want to sacrifice my health and youth for much longer. This virus isn’t bad enough for me to want to do that. There actually is a lot of negative harmful effects of socially distancing for so long. How much more do you guys want me to sacrifice?

Wear a mask is all I want.

Is that really all you want?

I'm obviously wearing a mask, but businesses are doing far more than just imposing mask restrictions. Many are limiting capacity, limiting where you can go, asking that you maintain a far distance, completely changing their service, etc. Some restaurants are completely different. And they have to do that for liability issues, because the democratic party does not want to pass liability protections for businesses.

Also, a lot of people are calling for schools to be closed down, when I strongly benefit from in-person instruction. I'm really trying but I barely learn from online classes. I need the in-person social interaction. Maybe online learning works for you guys, but I don't have the privilege of being able to learn effectively online. But, again, the democratic party is generally asking for schools to be shut down and be online only.

I just want the democratic party to not push for things that make my quality of life significantly worse. I'm willing to risk getting coronavirus. Let me live my f!cking life. I've sacrificed enough. And I want people here to stop mocking people who want to do things that make their mental health better. I'm not partying right now, but some people really need to in order to blow off some steam.

I don’t mean to sound like a prick, but the world doesn’t revolve around you. The entire world is being effected right now. Partying isn’t a necessity, there are other ways to blow off steam. Nobody is mocking you, we’re just being real. Time to get creative to find ways to better yourself. I don’t know what else to tell you, this is the current situation, and nobody knows how much longer it will be this way. Everyone has to deal with it.

I'm not advocating for partying, anyways, nor am I going out and partying. I'm just saying there's a reason why some people are doing it. You're smart enough to know not to strawman, so don't strawman me. I know you're capable of being better than that, so please do be better.

I am advocating for schools to remain open, especially if they are taking precautions. And I am asking for people to be sensitive towards me, because I have been sensitive to everyone else. I deserve care & respect too, and you best treat me with care & respect if you want me to cooperate like I've been doing for the past few months. I am a person with feelings and I deserve to be treated with respect and to be taken seriously. My problems and issues matter too. My mental health matters too. Don't be a horse ass. If you want me to follow guidelines that adversely destroy my mental health, then you better accommodate me in other ways. This is a perfectly logical reaction.

And for your information, yes, you do sound like a prick. Whether you intended it or not, you nitpicked a small amount of my post, strawmanned it, and then ignored every other part of my post. I'll forgive you if you are more sensitive in the future.

[cg41386]

I need to know that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I don’t want to sacrifice my health and youth for much longer. This virus isn’t bad enough for me to want to do that. There actually is a lot of negative harmful effects of socially distancing for so long. How much more do you guys want me to sacrifice?

Wear a mask is all I want.

Is that really all you want?

I'm obviously wearing a mask, but businesses are doing far more than just imposing mask restrictions. Many are limiting capacity, limiting where you can go, asking that you maintain a far distance, completely changing their service, etc. Some restaurants are completely different. And they have to do that for liability issues, because the democratic party does not want to pass liability protections for businesses.

Also, a lot of people are calling for schools to be closed down, when I strongly benefit from in-person instruction. I'm really trying but I barely learn from online classes. I need the in-person social interaction. Maybe online learning works for you guys, but I don't have the privilege of being able to learn effectively online. But, again, the democratic party is generally asking for schools to be shut down and be online only.

I just want the democratic party to not push for things that make my quality of life significantly worse. I'm willing to risk getting coronavirus. Let me live my f!cking life. I've sacrificed enough. And I want people here to stop mocking people who want to do things that make their mental health better. I'm not partying right now, but some people really need to in order to blow off some steam.

I don’t mean to sound like a prick, but the world doesn’t revolve around you. The entire world is being effected right now. Partying isn’t a necessity, there are other ways to blow off steam. Nobody is mocking you, we’re just being real. Time to get creative to find ways to better yourself. I don’t know what else to tell you, this is the current situation, and nobody knows how much longer it will be this way. Everyone has to deal with it.

I'm not advocating for partying, anyways, nor am I going out and partying. I'm just saying there's a reason why some people are doing it. You're smart enough to know not to strawman, so don't strawman me. I know you're capable of being better than that, so please do be better.

I am advocating for schools to remain open, especially if they are taking precautions. And I am asking for people to be sensitive towards me, because I have been sensitive to everyone else. I deserve care & respect too, and you best treat me with care & respect if you want me to cooperate like I've been doing for the past few months. I am a person with feelings and I deserve to be treated with respect and to be taken seriously. My problems and issues matter too. My mental health matters too. Don't be a horse ass. If you want me to follow guidelines that adversely destroy my mental health, then you better accommodate me in other ways. This is a perfectly logical reaction.

And for your information, yes, you do sound like a prick. Whether you intended it or not, you nitpicked a small amount of my post, strawmanned it, and then ignored every other part of my post. I'll forgive you if you are more sensitive in the future.

“ I'm not partying right now, but some people really need to in order to blow off some steam.”

No, nobody needs to party, there are other ways to blow off steam.

I didn’t strawman anything. I responded to your own words and how I interpreted them. “If you want me to follow guidelines that adversely destroy my mental health, then you better accommodate me in other ways“ just rubs me the wrong way, and yes, your well being absolutely does matter. You should probably talk to someone on campus if one is readily available. You’re not alone, trust me.

I suffer from some anxiety and depression issues myself, and I’ve found it easy for me to adapt. Like I said, you need to find creative ways to have fun while still looking out for your physical health.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-22/coronavirus-millennials-are-suffering-an-epidemic-of-depression
Andreas Kluth - August 22, 2020, 1:00 AM EDT

"As Covid-19 spreads, so do mental-health problems, especially among Gen Z and Millennials. A lot of this has to do with uncertainty."

Summary:

• In the US, the national rate of anxiety tripled in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 (from 8.1% to 25.5%), and depression almost quadrupled (from 6.5% to 24.3%).
• The number of 18-39 year olds suffering from moderate to severe depression in the U.K. has nearly tripled to 31%.
• "Older adults had already built their lives before the pandemic — with routines, structures, careers and relationships to fall back on. The young had not, and were just embarking on that adventure when Covid-19 struck."
• "Replacing in-person, tactile and pheromonal interactions with screens and apps just doesn’t cut it. Biologically, we’re still like other primates, who need to groom and be groomed to lower cortisol levels and feel well."
• "Unprecedented uncertainty" that cuts off all ability to plan is more difficult on the young, many of whom have dropped out of higher education, who don't know whether their programs are still worth the tuition that they continue to pay, or who can't fund their education at all because they don't know when their families will have an income again.
• Shortages of mental health professionals and the inability to schedule in-person visits exacerbate all of these problems.

This pandemic is going to have an effect on the younger generations that will last for decades, to say nothing of the economic and other effects which it has wrought. Or at the very least, the response to this pandemic will. I cannot wait for 2020 to end, as this has been a horrendous year.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

“ I'm not partying right now, but some people really need to in order to blow off some steam.”

No, nobody needs to party, there are other ways to blow off steam.

I didn’t strawman anything. I responded to your own words and how I interpreted them. “If you want me to follow guidelines that adversely destroy my mental health, then you better accommodate me in other ways“ just rubs me the wrong way, and yes, your well being absolutely does matter. You should probably talk to someone on campus if one is readily available. You’re not alone, trust me.

I suffer from some anxiety and depression issues myself, and I’ve found it easy for me to adapt. Like I said, you need to find creative ways to have fun while still looking out for your physical health.

You're not even attempting to listen to me.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-22/coronavirus-millennials-are-suffering-an-epidemic-of-depression
Andreas Kluth - August 22, 2020, 1:00 AM EDT

"As Covid-19 spreads, so do mental-health problems, especially among Gen Z and Millennials. A lot of this has to do with uncertainty."

Summary:

• In the US, the national rate of anxiety tripled in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 (from 8.1% to 25.5%), and depression almost quadrupled (from 6.5% to 24.3%).
• The number of 18-39 year olds suffering from moderate to severe depression in the U.K. has nearly tripled to 31%.
• "Older adults had already built their lives before the pandemic — with routines, structures, careers and relationships to fall back on. The young had not, and were just embarking on that adventure when Covid-19 struck."
• "Replacing in-person, tactile and pheromonal interactions with screens and apps just doesn’t cut it. Biologically, we’re still like other primates, who need to groom and be groomed to lower cortisol levels and feel well."
• "Unprecedented uncertainty" that cuts off all ability to plan is more difficult on the young, many of whom have dropped out of higher education, who don't know whether their programs are still worth the tuition that they continue to pay, or who can't fund their education at all because they don't know when their families will have an income again.
• Shortages of mental health professionals and the inability to schedule in-person visits exacerbate all of these problems.

Thank you so much for sharing this article. It explains a lot of the issues I've been having. I have the unfortunate combination of being an extrovert who suffers from social anxiety, so it has been really hard to adjust this especially as I'm just starting to go into adult life. I was just starting to feel comfortable with where I was in life and this pandemic and government regulations took a lot of it away from me. There are a lot of things in life that I wish I were better at and that I'm trying to get better at, but it's hard. And yeah, "just go to mental health professionals" isn't exactly a fool proof solution.

And yeah, thank you for advocating for me. It really means a lot to me. For some reason, the loudest voices just don't seem to want to even listen to my issues (let alone understand them), and it makes me feel depressed and isolated.

[cg41386]

“ I'm not partying right now, but some people really need to in order to blow off some steam.”

No, nobody needs to party, there are other ways to blow off steam.

I didn’t strawman anything. I responded to your own words and how I interpreted them. “If you want me to follow guidelines that adversely destroy my mental health, then you better accommodate me in other ways“ just rubs me the wrong way, and yes, your well being absolutely does matter. You should probably talk to someone on campus if one is readily available. You’re not alone, trust me.

I suffer from some anxiety and depression issues myself, and I’ve found it easy for me to adapt. Like I said, you need to find creative ways to have fun while still looking out for your physical health.

You're not even attempting to listen to me.

Oh, give me a break. I’ve tried to give you advice. I completely sympathize with you and get you to some extent. There is no simple answer to this. I guess try and find others out there who feel the same as you and talk, whether it be in person or not. If a professional is available, seek them out. If you really want to have change, vote in November and encourage those close to you to do the same.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The problem with keeping large schools (including universities) open is that it's basically impossible to main a stable learning environment with a rampant virus. How are you supposed to maintain a classroom when students (or, god forbid, instructors) are dropping out for 1-2 weeks and physically incapable of coming to class? How can you assign grades when over half of your class has been bedridden at some point during the semester? How do you maintain a safe in person learning environment that doesn't force people who otherwise don't want to be exposed to the virus to endure something that's threatening to their safety? Students aren't the only stakeholders in the school - there are also instructors, maintenance staff, support staff, administration, and parents; these people are all at higher risk than students.

The virus alters behaviors in a way that reshapes the classroom and warps it into something suboptimal. Universities in particular know this and have invited students back to small insulated college towns with bare-bones plans for mitigation or containing spread beyond the campus (CU Boulder isn't even testing students not on campus for god's sakes), just to bring in extra tuition money. Universities in this country are pulling a bait and switch on students (and parents) and leading them into a situation where they know in six weeks the situation will not be maintainable and learning goals can not be met. It's shameful. No universities should be asking for anywhere near full tuition for what they know will be 1/6th of a typical semester's worth of in person instruction.

But, the online education model is also suboptimal and that's beyond question. The current situation for parents of school-aged children is also wildly untenable and will reach a breaking point this Fall. A country with leaders that gave a shit would have spent the last five months doing something, anything, to prevent us from being in this situation in the first place. A country where leaders had brains would have creative solutions (e.g., some sort of alternative programming) that would prevent students and families from being forced into dismal choices. A country where the people running our education system were interested in learning instead of maintaining their own self-enriching and status-protecting structures would have found something better-suited and safer than this.

[jamestroll]

Is this real?

[jamestroll]

I am tired of people pulling the, "but my 96 year old grandmother" card.

I am tired of being told I should work from home when I am not able to work from home and a majority of jobs can not be worked from home. And many jobs that can be worked remotely still need in person on site work.

I am tired of being labeled a sociopath just because I oppose draconian lockdowns. I do support rotational regional lockdowns !