COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Dr. Arch]

What is the consensus about the virus "running its course" because of herd immunity? That is, things start to get better because enough people have already had the virus? Could it be happening now? Could we know by September?

Not even close. We would need to have hundreds of thousands infected a day for quite some time to achieve herd immunity that way (if immunity is even possible).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What is the consensus about the virus "running its course" because of herd immunity? That is, things start to get better because enough people have already had the virus? Could it be happening now? Could we know by September?

Back when Arizona was really bad, I said it would be the next Connecticut or New York, and the number of cases would drop off significantly because of herd immunity. It's clearly happening now.

There's just no other conclusion as to why states that were once among the worst are now some of the best.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What is the consensus about the virus "running its course" because of herd immunity? That is, things start to get better because enough people have already had the virus? Could it be happening now? Could we know by September?

Back when Arizona was really bad, I said it would be the next Connecticut or New York, and the number of cases would drop off significantly because of herd immunity. It's clearly happening now.

There's just no other conclusion as to why states that were once among the worst are now some of the best.

Well, no, there are other plausible explanations.  For one: when things get bad in a location, it motivates people there to change their behavior in such a way as to bring things under control after a certain time lag.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Boom goes the bubble gum...

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity-slowing-down-coronavirus-parts-us

[Person Man]

Boom goes the bubble gum...

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/11/1006366/immunity-slowing-down-coronavirus-parts-us

Apparently it’s enough to keeps things from growing but no more.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Could there be partial herd immunity in some of the hardest-hit areas by now?  Sure, it's quite possible.  But it's certainly not the ONLY explanation for case decreases.  These factors all interact with each other.  For example, partial herd immunity may reduce R by a small amount, while increased social distancing also does so.  So the combination of both in a particular area might push R below 1, when neither factor by itself would do so.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Could there be partial herd immunity in some of the hardest-hit areas by now?  Sure, it's quite possible.  But it's certainly not the ONLY explanation for case decreases.  These factors all interact with each other.  For example, partial herd immunity may reduce R by a small amount, while increased social distancing also does so.  So the combination of both in a particular area might push R below 1, when neither factor by itself would do so.

PENN's DOID is apparently collaborating with the sociology and psychology departments to take a look at how people responded behaviorally (or have been responding, I should say) to the pandemic. 

Should yield some interesting results!

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Frankly, I think it’s selfish that entire counties have locked down for 0.4% of the population - without any consideration for the other 99.6%. The severe and fatal consequences to all of this are appalling. How the fuk does the hysteria make any sense to anyone?

[YPestis25]

Frankly, I think it’s selfish that entire counties have locked down for 0.4% of the population - without any consideration for the other 99.7%. How the fuk does that make any sense to anyone?

Because we're a society with a social contract where we agree to a modicum of concern for the most vulnerable even at mild inconvenience to us?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Frankly, I think it’s selfish that entire counties have locked down for 0.4% of the population - without any consideration for the other 99.7%. How the fuk does that make any sense to anyone?

Because we're a society with a social contract where we agree to a modicum of concern for the most vulnerable even at mild inconvenience to us?

Okay. I can’t get appropriate care for a severe health issue I’ve been dealing with for several years. And how about all those that can’t support their families now? The half billon who will spiral into poverty around the world. How about increases in suicide, drug addiction, and alcoholism? How about the destruction in major cities? I could go on.

Social contract my ass.

[Horus]

Frankly, I think it’s selfish that entire counties have locked down for 0.4% of the population - without any consideration for the other 99.7%. How the fuk does that make any sense to anyone?

Because we're a society with a social contract where we agree to a modicum of concern for the most vulnerable even at mild inconvenience to us?

Social contract my ass.

The Republican motto right here.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1293573604265795584

Although the UK number seems to be due some bureaucratic snafu

[Dr. Arch]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Frankly, I think it’s selfish that entire counties have locked down for 0.4% of the population - without any consideration for the other 99.7%. How the fuk does that make any sense to anyone?

Because we're a society with a social contract where we agree to a modicum of concern for the most vulnerable even at mild inconvenience to us?

Okay. I can’t get appropriate care for a severe health issue I’ve been dealing with for several years. And how about all those that can’t support their families now? The half billon who will spiral into poverty around the world. How about increases in suicide, drug addiction, and alcoholism? How about the destruction in major cities? I could go on.

Social contract my ass.

Not to mention screwing Millennials over for a second time (I.e., Great Recession)
 
And now many of you - Generation Z - will be worse off than Millennials, who are the first generation to be worse off than the previous one.  I would be very scared if I were you - not because of the virus, but because you’re on course to being a truly lost generation.

College bubble has popped (which does make my degree much more valuable)
And if you think closing down schools is a good idea, then you’re really screwed.
Plus the economy, which will eventually burst too.
The trillions added to the debt in just the last few months.
Bankrupt social security.

Again, I could go on.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1293573604265795584

Although the UK number seems to be due some bureaucratic snafu

I'm particularly pleased with Germany's efforts.  They pretty consistently kept their death rate to a minimum, yet IIRC they still require masks on public transportation and in areas where large groups of people are prone to be in contact.  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1293573604265795584

Although the UK number seems to be due some bureaucratic snafu

Sweden: 0

[jimrtex]

I think it was possible to keep schools reopened even if wasn't the greatest idea, However doing it with 0 restrictions was stupid.

The main changes that really need to be made in schools is better ventilation and better access to sinks. I'm the biggest germaphobe in the world, but I don't think kids need to go to school in a hazmat suit.

There's no way schools will be safe when community transmission is so widespread. Until new case numbers are pushed down to a low level, most activities will be too risky.

Are you suggesting that all school districts should consider going fully online for the fall semester? I am only beginning to imagine the consequences that will have for many families and students across the country. Of course, opening schools "normally" and in-person is fraught with its own difficulties, so we have a truly tough situation here.

Students (parents) should be given an option of in-person (traditional) schools, on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, home schooling, or no schooling.

Traditional schools should determine their capacity (teachers willing to work, class sizing, etc.). If more students want to attend than space is available, then oldest students in each grade are given priority.

Public schools should pay for students choosing on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, or home schooling.

For students choosing no schooling, taxes would be reduced.

[Person Man]

I think it was possible to keep schools reopened even if wasn't the greatest idea, However doing it with 0 restrictions was stupid.

The main changes that really need to be made in schools is better ventilation and better access to sinks. I'm the biggest germaphobe in the world, but I don't think kids need to go to school in a hazmat suit.

There's no way schools will be safe when community transmission is so widespread. Until new case numbers are pushed down to a low level, most activities will be too risky.

Are you suggesting that all school districts should consider going fully online for the fall semester? I am only beginning to imagine the consequences that will have for many families and students across the country. Of course, opening schools "normally" and in-person is fraught with its own difficulties, so we have a truly tough situation here.

Students (parents) should be given an option of in-person (traditional) schools, on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, home schooling, or no schooling.

Traditional schools should determine their capacity (teachers willing to work, class sizing, etc.). If more students want to attend than space is available, then oldest students in each grade are given priority.

Public schools should pay for students choosing on-line charter schools, charter and private schools, cottage schools, or home schooling.

For students choosing no schooling, taxes would be reduced.

Paying people to be illiterate?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Frankly, I think it’s selfish that entire counties have locked down for 0.4% of the population - without any consideration for the other 99.7%. How the fuk does that make any sense to anyone?

Because we're a society with a social contract where we agree to a modicum of concern for the most vulnerable even at mild inconvenience to us?

Okay. I can’t get appropriate care for a severe health issue I’ve been dealing with for several years. And how about all those that can’t support their families now? The half billon who will spiral into poverty around the world. How about increases in suicide, drug addiction, and alcoholism? How about the destruction in major cities? I could go on.

Social contract my ass.

Not to mention screwing Millennials over for a second time (I.e., Great Recession)
 
And now many of you - Generation Z - will be worse off than Millennials, who are the first generation to be worse off than the previous one.  I would be very scared if I were you - not because of the virus, but because you’re on course to being a truly lost generation.

College bubble has popped (which does make my degree much more valuable)
And if you think closing down schools is a good idea, then you’re really screwed.
Plus the economy, which will eventually burst too.
The trillions added to the debt in just the last few months.
Bankrupt social security.

Again, I could go on.

Huh! With so many people totally screwed over, it’s almost as if our economy is broken and needs a total restructuring!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Things continue to go swimmingly in Cherokee County:

A second high school in Cherokee County was closed today and nearly 300 students and staff are quarantined after the district confirmed more than a dozen cases of COVID-19.

Woodstock High School will close to in-person learning until Aug. 31 for deep cleaning after the district said the number of confirmed coronavirus cases have climbed to 14, Cherokee County Schools Superintendent Dr. Brian Hightower said. Tests for an additional 15 students are pending, he added.

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/woodstock-high-school-closes-after-14-confirmed-covid-19-cases/K2T4EJPJ4RAYZKXFBCSE7LUU5Y/

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1293573604265795584

Although the UK number seems to be due some bureaucratic snafu

According to worldometers, the number of UK deaths yesterday was 103.

[BobbieMac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711

UK death count down by 5000, after a review. Thats why you may see some odd UK numbers.

I tend to believe this is a genuine attempt to have accurate figures rather than massage the numbers. It made no sense that England counted differently to Scotland and Wales, and in fact most of the rest of the world.

[Del Tachi]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

[Dr. Arch]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

Good for you for absolutely missing the point.

[emailking]

At this rate, we'll be close to a quarter million deaths by election day. It's so difficult to even wrap your head around that number of casualties.

Let me help you then:  over 2.8 million Americans died in 2019, and the median age of a COVID decadent is 78 years (same as U.S. life expectancy at birth)

It's still difficult to wrap your mind around it. Even harder to comprehend is the 5 million who have been sickened by the disease.