COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/seldo/status/1424746056890281984?s=20

A professional data analyst would not infer motive based on this data.

[Podgy the Bear]

Where does the ignorance from this video come from? This is the richest area of Tennessee according to the journalist so you can't blame economic anxieties. I hear one of the maniacs yelling about god and hell, so is it based in religious craziness?

Technically I think Brentwood and Belle Meade may be richer, but stil..

Belle Meade (definitely) and Brentwood (mostly) are far richer than Franklin.  

[Real Texan Politics]

Oh my....
https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status/1425563524986589184?s=21

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Oh my....
https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status/1425563524986589184?s=21

I have just about lost all faith in any of our institutions.

I thought the vaccine worked. So why are they testing vaccinated people?

Why??? What exactly is going on here???

[Horus]

Oh my....
https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status/1425563524986589184?s=21

Unreal. Might as well just switch to fully online instruction if that's the case. Unlike under 18s, I see no reason why doing so would hurt a person's social development.

If this is how institutions are going to act, good luck getting more than a quarter of the country to get boosters.

[It’s so Joever]

Oh my....
https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status/1425563524986589184?s=21

I have just about lost all faith in any of our institutions.

I thought the vaccine worked. So why are they testing vaccinated people?

Why??? What exactly is going on here???

Hello dear time traveler,
I know you have come from April 2021 so I will explain this as easy as possible. So we did get a lot of people vaccinated in the US (but definitely not everyone) but turns out there is this variant which shows some ability to breakthrough the vaccines. Now it’s limited and there is still debate over exactly the scope of the breakthrough, but that is why these new rules were made. Whether they are justified or not is a different discussion, but this is the reasoning.

[compucomp]

Oh my....
https://twitter.com/stanforddaily/status/1425563524986589184?s=21

I have just about lost all faith in any of our institutions.

I thought the vaccine worked. So why are they testing vaccinated people?

Why??? What exactly is going on here???

Some serious Horseshoe Theory on display here.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1425449438202548224

Does anyone really not believe by now that the Republican Party isn't trying to start another insurrection? We're getting micro versions of it all over the country over similarly stupid wedge issue bulls****: this, critical race theory, QAnon, take your pick. It's getting old, but not getting any less startling and depressing.

I think we're way past "trying to start". While the shape of our emerging domestic conflict will be different from past struggles here and elsewhere, future historians will likely put the start somewhere around April 30th 2020 (the armed assault on the Michigan capital), if they don't just use Trump's election as the demarcation point.

Those of us who aren't Republicultists need to come to terms with reality; we are in the early stages of a novel sort of civil war. It's an ugly reality, but refusing to face it makes us no better than the right-wingers denying climate change and COVID.

[It’s so Joever]

When is the Delta surge projected to level off?

I saw some recent projections saying it would level off right about now. "TheLawyerCraig" on Twitter might have posted some.

Robert Redfield is saying it’s very likely another variant, more dangerous than Delta, is coming this fall.

It may, it may not.
I will say though, having only some of the population vaccinated while the virus spreads across via the unvaccinated is the right condition for a vaccine resistant variant to emerge.

So if that happens, that’s it? We are going to be in the game The Last of Us?

I’m guessing this is satire, but I will respond seriously.

No, a variant which has stronger ability than delta to evade vaccine protection would not cause the apocalypse. Now for those on the forum who blindly claim a worse variant won’t come, I question the logic behind that. Is there a rule that the virus can only get so bad before it must go back to normal like a light switch? Do you all believe this protein spike ball really is going to regard your desires for normalcy when adapting to a different populace? Obviously not. I am not Del Taco, I am not Bandit. I am not saying this to make you feel better, because reality doesn’t care.

A variant that is more vaccine resistant is not inevitable, but it’s plausible and honestly the phase in which we are in with regards to vaccination is probably the best phase for such a mutation to occur.
But what happens if such a variant develops and does take hold (remember, not all variants spread, most die out or are limited in reach)

Well for one, the mRNA vaccines will be able to be adjusted rather quickly, probably around six-eight weeks iirc. Of course it will take longer for vaccinations to begin against such a variant because of testing and approval processes along with distribution. Still, it won’t take an entire year like it did in 2020 (knock on wood)
In the meantime, society will have a choice to make. A variant with higher ability to resist vaccination would not automatically render the vaccines useless. The efficacy of certain metrics may lower, but it probably will not be to the point that Moderna is a dud. Just like with delta, there will be higher numbers of breakthrough cases, although they still will likely be less terrible than the infections in the unvaccinated as a whole. We will need to figure out what restrictions are warranted and what restrictions are excessive. I expect no one will be happy.

As for how we will react? Poorly. There will be a period of denial, a period of panic, and finally some rationality way too late. Same cycle as before.
I assume Atlas will be throwing their usual hissy fit over “muh freedumb” and certain posters will deliberately do anything they can to misrepresent and distort the situation because they believe that will somehow make it better. It’s a coping mechanism.

[Hammy]

Those of us who aren't Republicultists need to come to terms with reality; we are in the early stages of a novel sort of civil war. It's an ugly reality, but refusing to face it makes us no better than the right-wingers denying climate change and COVID.

This sort of alarmism convinces no one, and if anything delegitimizes the otherwise valid criticism that the present batch of Republicans are a threat to democracy. It's no different than using breakthrough cases to claim vaccines are useless--it's just pointless exaggeration.

While there will probably be more violence, and probably more "insurrections" (lets call them what they really are: coup attempts), that doesn't in any way equal a civil war and poses the situation in an unrealistically black and white manner.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1425449438202548224

Does anyone really not believe by now that the Republican Party isn't trying to start another insurrection? We're getting micro versions of it all over the country over similarly stupid wedge issue bulls****: this, critical race theory, QAnon, take your pick. It's getting old, but not getting any less startling and depressing.

I think we're way past "trying to start". While the shape of our emerging domestic conflict will be different from past struggles here and elsewhere, future historians will likely put the start somewhere around April 30th 2020 (the armed assault on the Michigan capital), if they don't just use Trump's election as the demarcation point.

Those of us who aren't Republicultists need to come to terms with reality; we are in the early stages of a novel sort of civil war. It's an ugly reality, but refusing to face it makes us no better than the right-wingers denying climate change and COVID.

We could be closer to the end than to the beginning.

We have had a cold civil war from just after the end of the 2007-2009 economic meltdown, with America tending into two hostile and exclusive camps that want nothing to do with each other. We have one clearly left-wing Party and one clearly right-wing Party, with the most liberal Senator from  the Republican Party (Susan Collins) more to the right than the most conservative member of the Democratic Party (Joe Manchin). The divide is heavily regional.

I see the January 6 insurrection as the "now or never" moment for the Right, when (how many were involved?) put their lives, reputations, economic opportunities, wealth, and freedom on the lines on behalf of a leader in which they had unswerving faith. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The D Senate didn't even enact a Reconciliation Bill on the Debt Ceiling this is one reason why they overspent on the 1.9T Stimulus bill in March, instead of giving Stimulus checks to 35K they gave Rich people twice on Pension 1200 and 2K Stimulus checks, how can it be now or never moment for the Right and they are the restraint in spending party
.

As ai recall before 2007 and 2017 takeover by D's they say the Right enacted tax cuts for the rich and Pelosi said Paygo and they didn't offer a budget ceiling increase in their budget

Rs as models are predicting are gonna net 8 seats in H and D's 2 Senate seats and numerical majority of Govs

The DNC admitted that they thought life was going back to normal and July and thought they were gonna have an easy midterm, but it didn't happen that way with Covid

That's why PPP polls are getting a bad reputation on that March /OH Amy Acton and Tim Ryan competitive in Senate poll like R2K polls had 2010 Robin Carnahan leading Blunt and Strickland leading Kasich on falsehood polls it hasn't released a poll since and QU had Biden leading in OH the weekend before the Election

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Do we have any studies on the prevalence of long Covid in breakthrough cases? It may be significantly lower.

There is not that much information yet. There should start being a lot more over the next few months. What I am doing is waiting for a big, high quality, clear study to come out before making any big decisions.

One study of Israeli health care workers found that 19% of vaccinated breakthrough cases got long COVID. That is roughly the same ballpark as the chance of getting long COVID with a normal infection. On the other hand, this had a very small sample size, and also it might be the case that HCWs are more likely to get long COVID in the first place (maybe if they are health care workers they get higher viral loads and higher viral loads lead to more long COVID???)

Of course, your chances of getting a breakthrough infection itself are still lower than of getting a non-breakthrough infection, but if the idea of the back-to-normalers is that we are not going to control COVID at all and just going to let it run totally rampant forever, then I figure that the chance of getting a breakthrough infection eventually will get close to 100%, so that doesn't make a difference.

Another study a couple days to a week ago found about a 50% reduction in the chance of getting long COVID if you are vaccinated. No idea if that declines over time, and if so how much. That is definitely better than a 0% reduction, but way lower than I would like it to be.

https://slate.com/technology/2021/08/long-covid-breakthrough-infection-vaccinated.html

New article worth a read:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/12/when-it-comes-to-breakthrough-cases-are-we-ignoring-long-covid-once-again

On 1 May, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped tracking breakthrough infections that did not lead to hospitalization or death. Its rationale was to “​​maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance”, making the continued assumption that non-hospitalized Covid cases are not important but “mild”: without complications, manageable at home, where patients fully recover in two weeks.

I have dealt with persistent symptoms for 17 months – an illness now called “long Covid” – and not collecting data based on this assumption is an enormous mistake, one that has persisted throughout the pandemic and has severe consequences moving forward.

We know much more about long Covid than we did this time last year – enough for us to know it’s severe. Research has found ongoing endothelial dysfunction, hypometabolism in the brains of long Covid patients, microclots in long Covid blood samples, reduced aerobic capacity and impaired systemic oxygen extraction in non-hospitalized patients without cardiopulmonary disease, disrupted gut microbiota that persists over time, damage to corneal nerves, immunologic dysfunction persisting for at least eight months, numerous findings of dysautonomia (a common post-viral disorder of the autonomic nervous system), and countless other conditions.

In a cohort of non-hospitalized patients, 31% were dependent on others for care; our own paper from the Patient-Led Research Collaborative found over 200 multi-systemic symptoms that impaired the ability to work and function in daily life. We also found high levels of cognitive dysfunction and memory loss that were as common in 18-29-year-olds as those over 70, a finding that is starting to be highlighted in children and teenagers as well.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

One of two things is true. Either:

1.) Vaccines work, in which case we don't need any restrictions.

2.) Vaccines don't work, and we were lied to about their efficacy.

Which is it?

I think #1 is true, but if #2 is true instead, I'm going to be even angrier.

[compucomp]

One of two things is true. Either:

1.) Vaccines work, in which case we don't need any restrictions.

2.) Vaccines don't work, and we were lied to about their efficacy.

Which is it?

I think #1 is true, but if #2 is true instead, I'm going to be even angrier.

You cannot possibly this dense. There is an entire continuum between "virus repelling force field" and "saline injection". The virus has evolved to become much more contagious and gained some breakthrough ability. Combined this means that "get the shot and go back to normal" probably doesn't hold anymore, but that doesn't mean the "vaccine doesn't work" or that the authorities lied to you. The vaccine still works, it just doesn't work as well as it used to.

There is some serious Horseshoe Theory at work here since you claim to be a socialist but you're acting like a pure Trumpist.

[Sir Mohamed]

Fauci says anyone will sooner or later need booster shot. Experts have long suggested for SARS-CoV2 to become endemic, so that isn't a huge surprise here.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1425808565990797316

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I heard so many times about the advantage of mRNA vaccines being quickly adaptable to fight variants. But I haven’t heard about the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines being adapted against delta.  Is this actually happening? 

[Sir Mohamed]

I heard so many times about the advantage of mRNA vaccines being quickly adaptable to fight variants. But I haven’t heard about the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines being adapted against delta.  Is this actually happening? 

Pfitzer said there is no need as of today. Some months ago they said an adaption of their vaccine would be possible in a matter of few months should the need arise.

Recently there were reports that Moderna may be slightly more effective against the Delta variant, though the data needs to be validated by more studies.

[GP270watch]

 They're not going to get a majority of Americans to get a booster shot, they should worry about getting shots to more of the unvaccinated population and like I said from the start, a stimulus bribe would have been the fastest and cheapest way to do this in the long run.

[DaleCooper]

At this point I think the public health officials and the media have destroyed any hope of 70% of Americans getting fully vaccinated any time soon. Their constant lying about how the vaccine doesn't work is the primary reason. Think about it, if all you knew was what the media headlines told you, you'd believe that the vaccine gave you shoddy protection for 6 months until you'd need indefinite booster shots that also wouldn't protect you so you still have to wear masks and social distance for the rest of your life. If that's all the information that I had, then I'd have no interest in getting the fastest-approved vaccine in history either.

[Horus]

I could see maybe 40% of the country taking the time to get a booster.

We were told vaccines would let us return to normal life. Obviously that's not the case, we will quite likely be masking for the foreseeable future, probably indefinitely, and social distancing mandates are coming back, so why get another one?

[compucomp]

Picture that I found on Twitter that succinctly addresses the situation:

[ProudModerate2]

Video: Hear why Trump supporter says he won't get the vaccine.

https://us.cnn.com/videos/media/2021/08/12/trump-supporter-covid-19-vaccination-south-dakota-donie-o-sullivan-ac-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/business-media/

[Inmate Trump]

Anyone else find themselves hoping that the severity of Delta is being overblown in order to push vaccines more aggressively?  I mean, if that’s the plan it’s worked since vaccinations have increased.

I know that’s conspiracy thinking but I just don’t want to believe that we’re going right back to the worst of 2020.

[emailking]

I could see maybe 40% of the country taking the time to get a booster.

We were told vaccines would let us return to normal life. Obviously that's not the case, we will quite likely be masking for the foreseeable future, probably indefinitely, and social distancing mandates are coming back, so why get another one?

Because I'd rather not be intubated.