COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1309852606030897154

Raw numbers are up, but positivity rate is way down. The 7-day positivity rate for yesterday was only 4.74% - the lowest since at least March 6, except for 3 days in Mid-June when it was 4.72 or 4.73%.

The rise in raw numbers are almost entirely fueled by colleges that try to test everyone. Penn State, Brigham Young University, and UW-Madison have a lot of cases.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This had to happen sooner or later, and it's good news: The positivity rate in the U.S. for the past 7 days just fell to 4.66%, the lowest 7-day rate since at least March 6, probably even February.

Also, the positivity rate for just today was 3.66%, the lowest since March 4.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yesterday was another record low for the 7-day positivity rate: 4.64%.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

With Florida throwing its doors back open, how long will it take before we start noticing a spike in cases? About two weeks?

Not gonna happen. Guaranteed.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Based on what? Opening up bars and restaurants is very likely to lead to a spike in cases, so long as COVID remains unchecked. Which it very much is.

Much of Florida has herd immunity now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There is no known “herd immunity” for this. Full stop.

NY, CT, AZ, DC...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That's just ridiculous if you take even a brief look at the numbers.  The population of Florida is about 21 million.  They've reported just over 700,000 cases.  Even if we assume that as few as 1/5 of total cases have been detected, that would be 3.5 million cases, or about 17% of the state's population.   That's far too low to achieve herd immunity.

The herd immunity threshold is not 70% like we once thought.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That's just ridiculous if you take even a brief look at the numbers.  The population of Florida is about 21 million.  They've reported just over 700,000 cases.  Even if we assume that as few as 1/5 of total cases have been detected, that would be 3.5 million cases, or about 17% of the state's population.   That's far too low to achieve herd immunity.

The herd immunity threshold is not 70% like we once thought.

Citation?

https://reaction.life/we-may-already-have-herd-immunity-an-interview-with-professor-sunetra-gupta

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What's up with WI and IL numbers? seem to be on a steady rise, inbound second wave?

Illinois is doing decently for a big state, and Wisconsin never really had a first wave.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yet another Trump associate has the virus. I'm just hoping that Trump himself-loathsome human being that he is-doesn't get it. That would spell more trouble for our country than it has already endured.

I would bet that he already has.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Today, the U.S. saw the highest testing volume ever: 1,133,178 tests.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I just got home from a trip to several national parks in Colorado and Utah. Most people I saw on this trip seem to have forgotten there's a pandemic. Not everyone of course, but a majority.

This is me in the common area of a motel in Glenwood Springs, Colo., on Thursday...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

My roommate was in Glenwood Springs on Friday. Were you able to cash in on that $100 deal?

I don't remember seeing anything about a $100 deal.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

But I do think Covid has already mutated to be weaker and more contagious which makes sense.

Why does weaker make sense?

I think what happens is that the virus has to adapt to be less deadly, since it needs living hosts who can spread it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's fairly clear that the virus is going completely out of control. Something has to be done soon.

But what? Everything we've done thus far has failed.

This is correct, folks, we have tried everything. Except maybe a "stay outside" order, which won't go over too well as cold weather comes.

So all we can do is stop worrying about it. People are not equipped to panic for months on end. Around here, I already see maskless customers and employees of indoor stores. Nobody worries about social distancing anymore, and families have big gatherings. And this is near a major city, not some rural area. People are done with fear and panic.

Among the few exceptions is that every time someone announces some event on Facebook, it always says something like, "SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL BE PRACTICED." Yeah. Sure.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm pretty sure Pennsylvania reported two days worth of totals today. Do we know of any other states that had something like that happen? Otherwise a 50% week-over-week change is horrifyingly bad.

Wisconsin reported 3 days. I think Connecticut and Rhode Island did too.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yesterday did have the highest number of tests so far, with over 1.2 million. So a lot of states now are testing anything that moves.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

One thing that bothers me is the idea that the botched response is being deliberately whipped up by the Democrats just to make things look bad so Trump loses. As bad as the response is, that seems low even by the Democrats' miserable standards lately. I have never been a Trump supporter, but I don't have so much Trump derangement to try to purposely botch a pandemic response just to make him lose.

The sadder part is that folks on other boards who are either involved in the Democratic Party or have very liberal views are starting to say the Democrats did indeed bungle it on purpose. The people saying this are anti-Trump, but they know more about the inner workings of the Democratic Party than I do.

And my goodness, I'm actually starting to believe them!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think they should try to space the desks and require masks. It sucks, but it's better than another year of remote learning.

Even remote learning would be better than that. But remote learning is still bad.

I also notice that IDEA and the ADA have been completely ignored through all of this.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yeah I don't get why you think remote learning is better than masks.

Sweden is doing decently by not having much of either one.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1319788915327381505

...or until we get the vaccine that was supposed to be here in September.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Illinois has been releasing a whole bunch of serology tests lately.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That's odd. I went to Utah just a couple weeks ago, and most folks acted as if there never was a pandemic. A few people wore masks indoors, but that was about it. But in some other states on this trip, masks were virtually unheard of.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm sure we've been well over 100,000 months ago. We don't know it, because the testing capacity was much less back then.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm sure we've been well over 100,000 months ago. We don't know it, because the testing capacity was much less back then.

Yes, and it would be great if things were just like they were in late March again, wouldn't it? I lived through that here in NYC; you can shut your mouth on this.

Cool! Another person to put on ignore!