GA: University of Georgia/AJC: Trump +1

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Georgia President by University of Georgia/AJC on 2020-10-06

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

47.5% Trump
46.4% Biden
  2.7% Jorgensen
  3.4% Undecided

[Tender Branson]

With GA back to tossup on the Atlas poll map, Biden falls below 300 EV:



https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 27 - October 6
1106 likely voters
MoE: 2.9%
Changes with September 11-20 poll
Margin and trends calculated pre-rounding

Trump 47% (n/c)
Biden 46% (-1)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Undecided 3% (-1)

[Buzz]

Starting to think Trump may win GA by just about the exact same as Kemp.  Underwhelming, but beats the alternative I suppose.

[wbrocks67]

Why do pollsters keep having these long polling dates? 9 days is ridiculous.

Also what in the world is this Independents sample

Biden 58%
Jorgensen 19%
Trump 12%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Horrible poll for Trump. Whites outnumber blacks here 65 to 29. Tilt D.

[redjohn]

I think Biden wins GA by a couple points. Look at how well Dems performed in 2018; you can virtually guarantee that nearly every Abrams voter will turn out to vote for Biden/Harris this year, and undoubtedly lots of voters who sat out 2018. Trump leading by 1 point in a poll that has them both below 50% is not good for him.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think Biden wins GA by a couple points. Look at how well Dems performed in 2018; you can virtually guarantee that nearly every Abrams voter will turn out to vote for Biden/Harris this year, and undoubtedly lots of voters who sat out 2018. Trump leading by 1 point in a poll that has them both below 50% is not good for him.

Especially if he's in 3rd place among independents.

[SaneDemocrat]

These end of the week  suck for Biden

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

These end of the week  suck for Biden

Nope. If the GA and TX polls released today are demographically weighted to what the 2018 or 2016 exit polls of demographics were, Biden wins both states.

[WD]

Pretty good for Biden. As TrendsAreReal pointed out, if Trump is only up 1 in a sample whiter than 2016, Biden is winning Georgia. Tilt D, I think he’ll win it by 1-2 in the end.

[Roronoa D. Law]

These end of the week  suck for Biden

Nope. If the GA and TX polls released today are demographically weighted to what the 2018 or 2016 exit polls of demographics were, Biden wins both states.

Yes, it should be noted that this poll indicates an electorate whiter than 2014.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I guess this is the "Maximum suppression" model?

Either way, not good for Trump at all. Though I'll be interested how some of our fellow Georgia users temper any optimism these could bring