AZ - Latino Decisions (D): Biden +3

[VAR]

Sep 28-Oct 6, 600 LV, MoE: 4%

Biden 48%
Trump 45%

SEN: Kelly 47-42 (+5)

Latinos: Biden 64-29 (+35)

http://dfer.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ERNA-Memo-Latino-Decisions-10.8.20.pdf

[redjohn]

Kind of hard for me to believe that Biden's up by double-digits nationally if a D internal shows him with this slim of a margin in AZ.

[Bootes Void]

Kind of hard for me to believe that Biden's up by double-digits nationally if a D internal shows him with this slim of a margin in AZ.

Biden been leading small to mid digits in Arizona consistently. D internals are not being biased for Biden

[Rep Jessica]

Kind of hard for me to believe that Biden's up by double-digits nationally if a D internal shows him with this slim of a margin in AZ.

Biden isn't up more then 6 nationally and Az will be within a couple of points on election day! Florida, Nc, and Ga will go Trump. This is what recent real election history shows.

[Horus]

Kind of hard for me to believe that Biden's up by double-digits nationally if a D internal shows him with this slim of a margin in AZ.

AZ has been tightening lately despite Biden seeming to pull away in other places. Not sure why, perhaps LV screens are having a bigger impact here than in say Florida

[redjohn]

Kind of hard for me to believe that Biden's up by double-digits nationally if a D internal shows him with this slim of a margin in AZ.

Biden isn't up more then 6 nationally and Az will be within a couple of points on election day! Florida, Nc, and Ga will go Trump. This is what recent real election history shows.

Recent real election history (if you're throwing out all polls) would actually suggest Biden wins AZ+GA, and Trump wins NC+FL.

[Buzz]

Arizona + Wisconsin is the path Trump needs to focus on.

[Gass3268]

Kind of hard for me to believe that Biden's up by double-digits nationally if a D internal shows him with this slim of a margin in AZ.

AZ has been tightening lately despite Biden seeming to pull away in other places. Not sure why, perhaps LV screens are having a bigger impact here than in say Florida

Tightening? Where? Trump is dropping.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Arizona + Wisconsin is the path Trump needs to focus on.

*Pennsylvania & Florida.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For Democrats for Education Reform

Undecided 5%

[Buzz]

Arizona + Wisconsin is the path Trump needs to focus on.

*Pennsylvania & Florida.

Pennsylvania is gone and he has Florida in the bag.

[Umengus]

Arizona + Wisconsin is the path Trump needs to focus on.

*Pennsylvania & Florida.

Pennsylvania is gone and he has Florida in the bag.

no and no. I don't buy it. If PA is gone, so is Fl. If FL is in the bag, so is PA.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Is this their first time doing a statewide poll? I’ve never seen one that wasn’t limited to Latino voters.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Arizona + Wisconsin is the path Trump needs to focus on.

*Pennsylvania & Florida.

Pennsylvania is gone and he has Florida in the bag.

no and no. I don't buy it. If PA is gone, so is Fl. If FL is in the bag, so is PA.

Why on earth would Pennsylvania and Florida vote together rather than PA+MI+WI and FL+NC?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Anyway, Arizona is a state where polling has definitely been weirdly anemic for Biden lately given his inflated nationwide numbers. That makes sense coming from most pollsters due to the well-documented issue reaching Spanish-speaking voters in the interior West, but it's a little weird to see it in a D internal from a group with Latino in the name. Maybe they released this as expectations gamesmanship.

[Ljube]

I think Biden is losing support among Latinos.

I wasn't really sure why that would be the case until I saw some guy, young Latino Christian leader on CNN and it hit me - Latinos don't like shutting of the churches.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I think Biden is losing support among Latinos.

I wasn't really sure why that would be the case until I saw some guy, young Latino Christian leader on CNN and it hit me - Latinos don't like shutting of the churches.

You realize that this poll does have a Latino crosstab, don't you?

[Ljube]

This election has a completely different dynamics compared to 2016.

Biden has significantly improved his numbers with the seniors. The primary reason for that is Trump's handling of the corona virus crisis.

But Trump has improved his numbers with the Hispanics. They like his economic policy, they don't like the BLM and they don't like shutting of churches.

[Ljube]

I think Biden is losing support among Latinos.

I wasn't really sure why that would be the case until I saw some guy, young Latino Christian leader on CNN and it hit me - Latinos don't like shutting of the churches.

You realize that this poll does have a Latino crosstab, don't you?

Yes, I do. Latino Decisions routinely overestimates Democratic support among the Hispanics.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I think Biden is losing support among Latinos.

I wasn't really sure why that would be the case until I saw some guy, young Latino Christian leader on CNN and it hit me - Latinos don't like shutting of the churches.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I think Biden is losing support among Latinos.

I wasn't really sure why that would be the case until I saw some guy, young Latino Christian leader on CNN and it hit me - Latinos don't like shutting of the churches.

You realize that this poll does have a Latino crosstab, don't you?

Yes, I do. Latino Decisions routinely overestimates Democratic support among the Hispanics.

So, you see an implausibly weak poll for Biden given the national environment, and your instinct is to unskew it further against him?

[Ljube]

I think Biden is losing support among Latinos.

I wasn't really sure why that would be the case until I saw some guy, young Latino Christian leader on CNN and it hit me - Latinos don't like shutting of the churches.

You realize that this poll does have a Latino crosstab, don't you?

Yes, I do. Latino Decisions routinely overestimates Democratic support among the Hispanics.

So, you see an implausibly weak poll for Biden given the national environment, and your instinct is to unskew it further against him?

Yes

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Don't underestimate the inroads Trump has made among the Latinos. It won't be enough to save him nationally, nor likely to save him in AZ if the trend continues, but it does put a shadow on "shifting demographics = a permanent Democratic majority" pipedream.

[President Johnson]

Don't underestimate the inroads Trump has made among the Latinos. It won't be enough to save him nationally, nor likely to save him in AZ if the trend continues, but it does put a shadow on "shifting demographics = a permanent Democratic majority" pipedream.

As I understand it, Trump mainly made small inroads with Cuban Americans. Said community is not a major factor in the state of Arizona. Most Hispanics there are of Mexican heritage and Joe Biden is just doing fine with them. And he's making massive inroads with suburbanites and older whiter voters. Maricopa County will swing hard to the left and Arizona is also a state with lots retirees. However, a +3 margin is reasonable.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Don't underestimate the inroads Trump has made among the Latinos. It won't be enough to save him nationally, nor likely to save him in AZ if the trend continues, but it does put a shadow on "shifting demographics = a permanent Democratic majority" pipedream.

It just doesn't make sense to me. Trump has nothing to offer the Latino community other than Venezuela scaremongering and COVID deaths. It's even more disheartening than the WWC thing, because he's actively, vocally prejudiced against them, and uses that prejudice to rile up other parts of his coalition!