IN Holcomb +39 Bk Strategies (R)

[StateBoiler]

It won't be this lopsided, but Holcomb is very safe.

Holcomb's number at least has been pretty reliable with their past monthly polling. Myers, Rainwater, and Undecided in contrast have been everywhere.

July -> August -> September -> October

Holcomb 57 -> 60 -> 57 -> 60
Myers 32 -> 20 -> 26 -> 21
Rainwater 3 -> 5 -> 9 -> 6
Undecided 8 -> 15 -> 8 -> 13

If I was the Rainwater campaign my internal goal would be 10%.

[StateBoiler]

It won't be this lopsided, but Holcomb is very safe.

Holcomb's number at least has been pretty reliable with their past monthly polling. Myers, Rainwater, and Undecided in contrast have been everywhere.

July -> August -> September -> October

Holcomb 57 -> 60 -> 57 -> 60
Myers 32 -> 20 -> 26 -> 21
Rainwater 3 -> 5 -> 9 -> 6
Undecided 8 -> 15 -> 8 -> 13

If I was the Rainwater campaign my internal goal would be 10%.

Who are you voting for governor?

I'm mostly happy with Holcomb. He's been a better governor than Pence. Pence in comparison to Mitch Daniels (didn't live here when Daniels was governor) was largely considered an ineffective governor considering he had supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature. Holcomb has not been DeSantis for example at all for Covid-19 considering this is a red state. And for the main political issue that occurred before Covid, him and state GOP chairman Kyle Hupfer were right on kicking Curtis Hill to the curb. At the same time, there's stuff he's done I don't get. The mask mandate for example. Let's take it face value he actually intended to make it law that everyone was required to wear a mask everywhere - this law had zero enforcement tied into it. I have a very pet hatred of laws that have no enforcement provisions. Those aren't laws, they're resolutions. It's one of the things how government tries to control your life but don't want to put in the legwork to enforce their own laws, aka virtue signaling bullsh**t. And even if you think the governor was right to do this and there should've been enforcement, it was an incredible overreach of executive power. If the governor thought the situation required this, he could've called a special session of the legislature, which there is precedent for him for because he did that earlier in his term for what in contrast were incredibly small-fry issues. Another one of these virtue signaling bullsh**t resolutions masquerading as laws he's done is ban the use of cell phones while driving. I'm not seeing cops pull anyone over for using their phone and I don't expect them to start. The Libertarian running for the State House district I'm in put a campaign ad up on Facebook saying "do you know it's now illegal in Indiana to use Google Maps while you drive?"

I'm going to try and get a Libertarian Party county chapter going in the county I recently moved to. I'm a never Trump conservative that never left that mindset and I have an abject hatred of the Democratic Party worldview, so for that reason and since Holcomb is going to win easily anyway, Rainwater.

[StateBoiler]

Safe R

A lot of Black Hoosiers will vote for Holcomb as well

Holcomb may get 30% of the Black vote.

Rare for a Republican

Holcomb will win Hamilton County by 40 points

1. There aren't a lot of black Hoosiers to start with.
2. All the ones in south Fort Wayne at least will reflexively vote Myers.