If the US did have a 2nd Civil War...

[VBM]

Obviously this has a <0.01% chance of happening, but let’s say that the red states secede from the Union after Biden wins in 2020. For the swing states, the blue states get Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida. The red states get Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas. Let’s say that, for whatever reason, a majority of Republicans in blue states stay loyal to their states and a majority of Democrats in red states stay loyal to their state. How strong would these two nations be? What would be the result if they went to war with each other?

[MATTROSE94]

I would say that the Republican states easily defeat the Democratic states due to the fact that they are more well-armed and bloodthirsty in their fighting habits.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that it is very likely thta eventually, a "parallel government gers set up in Hawaii/Alaska (depending on winner) much like modern day PRC vs Taiwan.

I also wonder who the territories would support

[TopShelfGoal]

Republican "nation" would be poorer and somewhat of a technological backwater. Texas and NC are the only states there with a "modern" economy. R nation would try to be a tax haven to encourage investment and could become the "Switzerland" of NA.

The Democratic "nation" would be highly educated, technologically advanced with all the tech and biotech companies considering they have Silicon Valley, Seattle, Massachussets and NY. D nation would also form a closer alliance with Canada and potentially have open borders with Canada.

[Chips]

The Republican side would be far more militaristic. They would win but with heavy losses.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

D nation is richer and has allies. It would win.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Other than the few in CO, the Rs would control the missile silos.

[OBD]

I actually worked on a scenario on this for a bit.

I feel like the GOP states would start out with a significant advantage - their extremists (which tend to be the most armed and willing to fight) are far more energized than the ones on the left, and with higher profilleration of guns, they'd have a larger, stronger army. However, they'd also have a significant population disadvantage, and would likely be viewed with skeptism by the rest of the world sans Russia - specifically, Canada and Mexico likely side with the Ds in this case, and with the US Army splintered this isn't good for the GOP.

Ultimately, I feel like this comes down to who the US Army supports (if any side) and who Canada and Mexico support - in my scenario, the US Army retains neutrality and the war is primarily fought by ideological paramilitaries and loyal state National Guards. In such a scenario, the GOP side would likely gain an upper hand early that would slowly be eroded due to the Democrats's technological advantage, a lack of international support, and internal dissent (from minority groups that would almost certainly get kicked to the curb by a solely-GOP government). Additionally, the GOP will have to fight on multiple fronts, while Democrats will be able to fall back on California in the west and the heavily-populated, voraciously anti-GOP Northeast (in addition to creating a Stalingrad situation in Chicago), forcing them to stretch their supply lines and fight in unfriendly territory. To be fair, though, a potential Democratic offensive (supported by some combination of Canada, Mexico, NATO, and/or China) would face similar problems pacifying rural areas. In conclusion, the likely final result is a stalemate brokered by horror at the vast number of casualties inflicted by the war (as in Craig DiLouie's Our War), resulting in some kind of reformed American governance (perhaps a return to the Articles of Confederation, or otherwise increased federalism?).

[Devout Centrist]

This scenario is impossible and quite frankly, any civil war would be a lot messier than this.

[Person Man]

I actually worked on a scenario on this for a bit.

I feel like the GOP states would start out with a significant advantage - their extremists (which tend to be the most armed and willing to fight) are far more energized than the ones on the left, and with higher profilleration of guns, they'd have a larger, stronger army. However, they'd also have a significant population disadvantage, and would likely be viewed with skeptism by the rest of the world sans Russia - specifically, Canada and Mexico likely side with the Ds in this case, and with the US Army splintered this isn't good for the GOP.

Ultimately, I feel like this comes down to who the US Army supports (if any side) and who Canada and Mexico support - in my scenario, the US Army retains neutrality and the war is primarily fought by ideological paramilitaries and loyal state National Guards. In such a scenario, the GOP side would likely gain an upper hand early that would slowly be eroded due to the Democrats's technological advantage, a lack of international support, and internal dissent (from minority groups that would almost certainly get kicked to the curb by a solely-GOP government). Additionally, the GOP will have to fight on multiple fronts, while Democrats will be able to fall back on California in the west and the heavily-populated, voraciously anti-GOP Northeast (in addition to creating a Stalingrad situation in Chicago), forcing them to stretch their supply lines and fight in unfriendly territory. To be fair, though, a potential Democratic offensive (supported by some combination of Canada, Mexico, NATO, and/or China) would face similar problems pacifying rural areas. In conclusion, the likely final result is a stalemate brokered by horror at the vast number of casualties inflicted by the war (as in Craig DiLouie's Our War), resulting in some kind of reformed American governance (perhaps a return to the Articles of Confederation, or otherwise increased federalism?).

It will just be interesting to see who survives. A hypothetical Civil War would just be isolated to here.

[Former President tack50]

D nation is richer and has allies. It would win.

D nation is also completely isolated and while richer, would only control like 20% of the land area.

A hypothetical US civil war would be very awkwarly shaped, but even in the best case scenario for D nation, they'd only control:

>New England (Rural Maine would offer quite a bit of resistance though, but would eventually fall)
> The East coast, roughly the corridor between NYC and Washington DC
> The West Coast, plus Las Vegas
> Hawaii
> A small bit of Southern Texas
> Maybe Colorado+New Mexico

Many parts of D nation, including places like Atlanta, Chicago or the Black Belt would be surrounded behind enemy lines and fall quickly.

D nation would be a very very big underdog in such a war since much of its territory would fall within the first month. Looking at the remaining fronts:

The Eastern Front would not really have a great geography for D nation I believe. Slowly but surely R Nation would gradually conquer them

The Western Front offers many more possibilities for D nation though, as I imagine passing the mountains would be hard.

The small Texas front would probably fall fast as it is so small, though this is the front most likely to see international intervention (From Mexico, though it's like a 1% chance)

Finally worst case scenario Hawaii is unconquerable, so D nation can probably eventually become the US version of Taiwan, located in Hawaii.