IA, TX - Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +1%, TIE

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 3-6

IA
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_IA_banner_book_2020_10_u43b2l.pdf

756 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

Biden 48%
Trump 47%
Someone else 4%
Undecided 1%

TX
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_TX_banner_book_2020_10_cm5k3s.pdf

895 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

Biden 48%
Trump 48%
Someone else 2%
Undecided 1%

[ExSky]

If the consistent under polling of Dems in Texas for the last decade Comes through again...oh boy

[BobbieMac]

Seems to match up with Biden polling double digit leads nationally.

[libertpaulian]

Bluowa and Bluxas could become a reality.

[Ferguson97]

413 map looking more likely every day

[Virginiá]

Change is in the air~!

[Tender Branson]

With those 2 polls, both states go from „slight Trump“ on the map to tossup.

[tagimaucia]

Civiqs was very accurate in Texas in 2018.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_texas_senate_2018_cruz_orourke_dma_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Rand]

C O R N   H U S K I N ‘   J O E

[Sir Mohamed]

Another proof TX is up for grabs. It's especially noteworthy the TX poll has a tie at 48%. That's a major difference to having a tie at 40% or 43%.

IA is worth investing because of the senate races and 3 potentially competitive House races Dems have to keep in their column. Otherwise, IA wouldn't have priority. But Biden has tons of cash and going into IA (and OH) is worth it.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs was very accurate in Texas in 2018.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_texas_senate_2018_cruz_orourke_dma_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Was about to say, one of the only pollsters who actually caught wind of what was happening with Beto

[pbrower2a]

Evidence of an overall Trump collapse. I see no evidence that Texas does not straddle 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President; the state is consistent at that since the 1990's, when Bill Clinton barely lost it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Civiqs was very accurate in Texas in 2018.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_texas_senate_2018_cruz_orourke_dma_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Was about to say, one of the only pollsters who actually caught wind of what was happening with Beto

Keep in mind some of that might've been luck, sorta like Trafalgar in the midwest in 2016, but still not a great poll for Trump none the less.

[Hope For A New Era]

4 1 3 !

[exopolitician]

MJ only down a point, and all three (Cornyn, Cruz, and Abbott) approvals are in the toilet. I'll take it!

[redjohn]

TX is in tossup territory.

[soundchaser]

TX is in tossup territory.

It has been for months, and lots of pundits remain in denial about it. I still suspect Trump will win, but if Biden does I wouldn't be totally shocked.

[redjohn]

TX is in tossup territory.

It has been for months, and lots of pundits remain in denial about it. I still suspect Trump will win, but if Biden does I wouldn't be totally shocked.

Yep. It won't be all that shocking if TX flips based on polling; far more likely than WI/MI flipping to Trump in 2016. Still, pundits will act like it's the upset of the century when Biden has been tied there for many months.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted too that Biden is doing a $6M ad buy in October in TX while Trump is doing nothing. Could easily swing the state to Biden even if just barely.

[Xing]

I really wouldn't have guessed, even after 2016, that Blue Texas would become a reality in 2020. And yet, I'm pretty much ready to call TX a Toss-Up.