WV-WOWK TV : Trump+18

[NOVA Green]

Is it possible for Biden to win any counties in WV if he’s only losing it by 18?

I think at least Monongalia would, quite possibly Jefferson and Kanawha (which was the only county in 18 where Manchin cracked 60%) as well?

That said, safe state polls do tend to underestimate the dominant party, so who knows. But even a Romney 12 sort of performance would be bad for Trump.

So curious if there is a thread where this is discussed in more detail, since I've increasingly seen this argument pop up on Atlas.

Is this a real thing, if so when, where, variances....

I mean some statistical guru or Engineer somewhere must be able to pull this up using some variation of SPC software.

Not doubting, but where did this theory come from?

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: West Virginia President by Triton Research on 2020-10-06

Summary: D: 38%, R: 56%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is it possible for Biden to win any counties in WV if he’s only losing it by 18?

I think at least Monongalia would, quite possibly Jefferson and Kanawha (which was the only county in 18 where Manchin cracked 60%) as well?

That said, safe state polls do tend to underestimate the dominant party, so who knows. But even a Romney 12 sort of performance would be bad for Trump.

even trump going from a 42 pt win to a 39 pt win in the state would be bad. this is the exact sort of place trump has to improve in if he wants to win reelection

[Tender Branson]

Pretty absurd that they didn't poll the Senate race ...

Or maybe this will be released later.

[NOVA Green]

I lost a post which I made which shows up in my "Sent Atlas Post" with an 01:53:12 timestamp.

Post was:

Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 06, 2020, 06:33:49 pm
Quote from: Wolverine22 on October 06, 2020, 06:28:47 pm
Is it possible for Biden to win any counties in WV if he’s only losing it by 18?

Hypothetically if he only lost by 18 he would most likely be carrying kanawha, jefferson, monongalia, and cabell

It would also depend on where the swings are happening since not all swings are universal.

Obama almost won Brooke County in the pan-handle back in '08 for example, and didn't do that shabby in Ohio County (Wheeling) either....

In theory you might see dramatic swings towards Biden in Steel Towns in West Virginia, where once again Trump has failed to deliver on his promises.

Sure, it's always probably a good idea to default to a traditional map when it comes to an incumbent running for reelection, but if Trump's support is collapsing faster than a bridge that hasn't been upgraded for decades with Union Made American Steel, it is not implausible that "dead cat bounce" might occur more within the aging mining communities, but larger swings in Steel Areas...

Honestly Biden needs to keep pushing his rebuilding America plan, and also finally honor the commitments made to the UMWA and the Coal Miners who helped fuel the Industrial Revolution in America even during the bloody strikes, and then later in support of the War Effort against Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan, and still yet have not received their fair share...

Everybody gets it down in the Appalachian Coal Country, that the Industry will never be like it was before, and that the larger non-union pit mains in places out West, Australia etc will swamp the more labor intensive Coal Seams...

Still, as I have been saying for Years on Atlas, the Federal Government needs to bail out the Union Pensions for retired Coal Miners as a settlement on debt owed, which is the key demand of the UMWA today.

Biden needs to come out in support of this not simply for political pandering, but also as a moral duty for those who have sacrificed so much for so little.

As an Oregonian in College in Southern Ohio in the early '90s, I was involved in solidarity activities with the UMWA during the final "Rolling General Strike in the Appalachian Coal Fields", only a few years after the Pittston strike in Western Virginia back in '89.

We learned out lessons from when I was in High School in Oregon about the false dichotomies between the "Labor and Environmental Movement" that the bosses and their Republican supporters would play.

Unfortunately the inability of Democratic and Republican Administrations alike for decades to address the fundamental structural economic issues within much of the region is a key reason why there is a "No Hope... No Future" Multi-Generational mindset, and also precisely why political swings and volatility are more and not less likely than in many other places.

Biden should run radio and TV ads in Wheeling (also hits SW PA and SE OH)...

If Biden really wants to "Troll Trump" why not place a few TV and Radio ads in Charleston?   Can't imagine the media market would be that pricey...

Radio ads in general are pretty inexpensive if you're trying to conserve on cash (which Biden is not that desperate on), but still pick a few popular Country and Rock Stations and see what you get where tons of folks listen to the radio driving to and from work for longer distances or doing their two week grocery run, and see what you get....



Mods if you could could please check out the IT links since it doesn't appear to have been posted on the thread, but still doesn't show up, with no evidence of any controversial material or reported posts, ect...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I lost a post which I made which shows up in my "Sent Atlas Post" with an 01:53:12 timestamp.

Post was:

Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 06, 2020, 06:33:49 pm
Quote from: Wolverine22 on October 06, 2020, 06:28:47 pm
Is it possible for Biden to win any counties in WV if he’s only losing it by 18?

Hypothetically if he only lost by 18 he would most likely be carrying kanawha, jefferson, monongalia, and cabell

It would also depend on where the swings are happening since not all swings are universal.

Obama almost won Brooke County in the pan-handle back in '08 for example, and didn't do that shabby in Ohio County (Wheeling) either....

In theory you might see dramatic swings towards Biden in Steel Towns in West Virginia, where once again Trump has failed to deliver on his promises.

Sure, it's always probably a good idea to default to a traditional map when it comes to an incumbent running for reelection, but if Trump's support is collapsing faster than a bridge that hasn't been upgraded for decades with Union Made American Steel, it is not implausible that "dead cat bounce" might occur more within the aging mining communities, but larger swings in Steel Areas...

Honestly Biden needs to keep pushing his rebuilding America plan, and also finally honor the commitments made to the UMWA and the Coal Miners who helped fuel the Industrial Revolution in America even during the bloody strikes, and then later in support of the War Effort against Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan, and still yet have not received their fair share...

Everybody gets it down in the Appalachian Coal Country, that the Industry will never be like it was before, and that the larger non-union pit mains in places out West, Australia etc will swamp the more labor intensive Coal Seams...

Still, as I have been saying for Years on Atlas, the Federal Government needs to bail out the Union Pensions for retired Coal Miners as a settlement on debt owed, which is the key demand of the UMWA today.

Biden needs to come out in support of this not simply for political pandering, but also as a moral duty for those who have sacrificed so much for so little.

As an Oregonian in College in Southern Ohio in the early '90s, I was involved in solidarity activities with the UMWA during the final "Rolling General Strike in the Appalachian Coal Fields", only a few years after the Pittston strike in Western Virginia back in '89.

We learned out lessons from when I was in High School in Oregon about the false dichotomies between the "Labor and Environmental Movement" that the bosses and their Republican supporters would play.

Unfortunately the inability of Democratic and Republican Administrations alike for decades to address the fundamental structural economic issues within much of the region is a key reason why there is a "No Hope... No Future" Multi-Generational mindset, and also precisely why political swings and volatility are more and not less likely than in many other places.

Biden should run radio and TV ads in Wheeling (also hits SW PA and SE OH)...

If Biden really wants to "Troll Trump" why not place a few TV and Radio ads in Charleston?   Can't imagine the media market would be that pricey...

Radio ads in general are pretty inexpensive if you're trying to conserve on cash (which Biden is not that desperate on), but still pick a few popular Country and Rock Stations and see what you get where tons of folks listen to the radio driving to and from work for longer distances or doing their two week grocery run, and see what you get....



Mods if you could could please check out the IT links since it doesn't appear to have been posted on the thread, but still doesn't show up, with no evidence of any controversial material or reported posts, ect...

You are one of the few effortposters who goes under appreciated and I hardly ever tldr your stuff unlike I do for others.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Of 525 registered voters and from September 29 to September 30, according to 538

[LabourJersey]

This lines up with Biden leading by double digits in national polls.

This is what I was about to say. If Trump "only" wins West Virginia by 18 next month, then Biden will definitely carry at least Monongalia County. That means Biden could become the first presidential candidate in 24 years, since Bill Clinton in 1996, and the first one this century to win at least one county in every state.

Biden would also have to win a county in Oklahoma too. though I guess if he's doing this well nationwide he would win Oklahoma County, too

[Calthrina950]

This lines up with Biden leading by double digits in national polls.

This is what I was about to say. If Trump "only" wins West Virginia by 18 next month, then Biden will definitely carry at least Monongalia County. That means Biden could become the first presidential candidate in 24 years, since Bill Clinton in 1996, and the first one this century to win at least one county in every state.

Biden would also have to win a county in Oklahoma too. though I guess if he's doing this well nationwide he would win Oklahoma County, too

Certainly. Like I've said elsewhere, polls have shown Biden as competitive in OK-05, and if he wins it, Kendra Horn will get another term.

[Gone to Carolina]

Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.

You really, REALLY should not be.

A lot of people who unironically believed in the “economically anxious” theory are gonna be shocked when a white man outperforms a white woman and black man in states like this, and it’s gonna be highly amusing to those of us who actually live in these places and know them well.

Biden respondents reasonably well to 'muh economic anxiety' (a stupid term, but what I mean is standard economic populism) too, FWIW. He's not a traditional populist, but his message has a touch of that in a post-COVID-19 environment and his campaign has certainly kept a tighter focus on the kitchen table issues than HRC's. Trump's also governed much more like a traditional conservative than he campaigned and therefore is primed to alienate a lot of the constituencies that should be going his way.

All that said, look at the voter registration changes in WV and tell me with a straight face that it'll trend - not swing, but trend - Democratic. For the first time, Republican registration crossed over Democratic statewide. West Virginians were voting for no-names in the Democratic primary because none of the real candidates satisfied them. This state is  getting more Republican.

If you're talking about the way atlas calculates "trends" that just merely means swinging more than the national average. I don't see why WV swinging more than the nation is out of the question when Biden is making disproportionate gains among white and elderly voters.

That said I would bet heavily on this poll underestimating Trump by a good clip.