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October 21, 2020, 03:01:50 AM
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  Talk Elections
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  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  North Carolina (ECU) : Tillis +1
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Author Topic: North Carolina (ECU) : Tillis +1  (Read 616 times)
Buzz
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« on: October 06, 2020, 02:34:53 PM »

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Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds
VARepublican
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2020, 02:35:33 PM »

Biden leads by 3
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2020, 02:35:49 PM »

Interesting that Cunningham is now underperforming Biden. I hope this doesn't stick till election day. I would be so mad if we lost the senate just because Cunningham sent some stupid texts.

I know this thread will very quickly turn into a whole thing about how Cunningham is doomed now, just because he trails by 1% in 1 poll.
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CellarDoor
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2020, 02:37:17 PM »

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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
Western Democrat
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2020, 02:37:25 PM »

Throw it in the average.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2020, 02:37:57 PM »



At least it's good Cunningham isn't really losing support
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2020, 02:40:18 PM »


Cunningham's lead shrinks from to 5.8% to 5.5%
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2020, 02:40:47 PM »

Good god when I saw this I was hoping Trump led in this poll.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2020, 02:48:00 PM »

The fate of democracy, in both the USA and the world over, may be doomed by Cal Cunningham's inability to resist the urge to cheat on his wife. Unbelievable. This could very well be WI-SEN 2016 all over again.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2020, 02:48:17 PM »

Good to see essentially no change here.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2020, 02:52:41 PM »

The fate of democracy, in both the USA and the world over, may be doomed by Cal Cunningham's inability to resist the urge to cheat on his wife. Unbelievable. This could very well be WI-SEN 2016 all over again.

If Dems lose this race and the Senate, Biden’s Presidency is over before it even begins.
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Estrogen Kefauver
kongress
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« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2020, 02:54:26 PM »

A historically sexy poll for the Tillis campaign - they haven't led a poll in ages. Of course, a candidate leads in one poll != the other candidate has LOST FOREVER.
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
Western Democrat
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« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2020, 02:55:46 PM »

The fate of democracy, in both the USA and the world over, may be doomed by Cal Cunningham's inability to resist the urge to cheat on his wife. Unbelievable. This could very well be WI-SEN 2016 all over again.

If Dems lose this race and the Senate, Biden’s Presidency is over before it even begins.

Well, good thing we’re not going to lose either.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2020, 02:56:40 PM »

A historically sexy poll for the Tillis campaign - they haven't led a poll in ages. Of course, a candidate leads in one poll != the other candidate has LOST FOREVER.

If anything, 2016 shows us that the canidate who never leads in polling is often favored to win.
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We Live in Black and White
SvenTC
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2020, 02:58:24 PM »

We're s**tting our pants over one poll that looks to be a substantial outlier...why, exactly?
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #15 on: October 06, 2020, 02:58:50 PM »

We must beware of R leaning polls, due to fact, Early voting is taking place and most votes for Cunningham have already been cast due to NC Early vote on 9/6, if Biden is leading by 3 and Cooper is leading by double digits, then Tillis isn't leading
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Optimistic Democrat
Mimoha
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2020, 03:00:38 PM »

As others have pointed out, so far this looks like an outlier. Nevertheless, it takes a special kind of stupid to do what Cunningham did in the midst of a campaign and possibly complicate Democrats' path to a majority.

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Unbeatable Titan Donna Shalala
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2020, 03:05:19 PM »

Quote
Data were collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=783) and an online panel provided by Lucid (n=449).
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2020, 03:19:28 PM »

That's why Ds have IA and GA Senate races in case Cunningham loses, but Early voting started on 9/6 that Arkansas Yankee doesn't account for, not same day voting and D's already cast ballots for Cunningham last month. This is directed to Arkansas Yankee
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Devils30
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« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2020, 03:23:04 PM »

ECU has had Cunningham's worst numbers all cycle
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #20 on: October 06, 2020, 03:47:03 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Other Source on 2020-10-04

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Abolish class
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« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2020, 04:33:55 PM »

Doesn't really worry me considering it's from ECU.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: October 06, 2020, 04:51:35 PM »

The result with leaners is actually Tillis +0% as there's less than 1% between them.

October 2-4
1232 likely voters
MoE: 3.2%
Changes with August 29-30 poll; trends calculated pre-rounding

Tillis 47% (+2)
Cunningham 46% (+1)
Some other candidate 3% (n/c)
Prefer not to answer 1% (-2)
Would choose not to vote for this office 1% (+1)
Undecided 2% (-1)
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Pollster
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« Reply #23 on: October 06, 2020, 06:15:53 PM »

The first poll Tillis leads in in how long (ever?) and it’s by a single point from a pollster who last showed the race tied?

“Why is Atlas freaking out?” is what I would ask if I were dumb.
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Ljube
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« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2020, 06:39:38 PM »

I don't think Cunningham can survive the scandal.

His voters are mostly women and they will find his behavior repulsive.
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