Morning Consult: Biden +6% post-convention (was +10%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A pretty decent poll for Trump and it only moves the 538 polling average by 0.2 points.

Polling gurus? Help?

It’s a B/C rated firm and it’s not that far off the average in any case.

[Hope For A New Era]

Back to 10% within a week.

[jdk]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Remember the lectures by the red avatars that there weren't going to be any RNC bump.....?

I sure do.

Imagine celebrating while still being down 6 points after a convention bump...

This is like being behind three touchdowns at halftime and kicking a field goal on the first drive of the second half

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

I don't know why some blue avatars are so happy, gold standard poll aggregator RCP doesn't include Morning Consult in its averages, so it must be trash.

[slothdem]

Consistent with the Biden +8 national environment.

[Tender Branson]

Biden+6 right now looks reasonable after the RNC.

The question will be if Trump’s small bounce holds or if it will disappear again after Labor Day.

[Eraserhead]

It's going to end up being pretty close again.

No, it won't.

Hope you're right but doubt you are.

[Roblox]

Guys, it's clear: Biden must do more funny interviews.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If you told the Biden team in January that they would be leading by six points and at 50% during the post-RNC bump, they would be ecstatic.

But this will be sure to cause unnecessary panic.

[wbrocks67]

So there are MORE undecideds than last week... seems like noise

[DrScholl]

This isn't a bounce at all, it's a slight leap. The problem with measuring for convention bouncing this year is that the electorate is less elastic and more people are polarized into their corners. Being down 6% is hardly good for Trump.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I know it's one poll, but Trump still can't get over that 45% hump even after the convention & Kenosha? And he was leading by 4% after the 2016 RNC? Yeah, I ain't sweating yet. Especially since the RNC looks to have already disappeared from the news cycle


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1299754974138728450?s=20

[pbrower2a]

...as good as it gets fr Trump.

Just after the Republican National Convention of 2008, John McCain got enough of a bump to suggest that he might get into a near tie with Obama.

Labor Day is coming, and even if the rallies are virtual, those will work far better for Biden than for Trump.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1299750031055089665

[JA]

What would happen if Trump lost the popular vote by 6%, yet managed to win the Electoral College?

[Horus]

What would happen if Trump lost the popular vote by 6%, yet managed to win the Electoral College?

That's my prediction. Well, either that or an EC tie. And he'd be sworn in, much as we'd all hate it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, at least Biden is still at 50% and still leading Trump unlike Clinton in some polls this time four years ago.

 I try not to panic anymore over things in this election because in the past all of it has been for nothing like when I was worried out about the impact of Trump's initial positive polling on handling COVID-19, Tara Reade, the Minneapolis protests, and "you're not black" but this time it seems like Trump finally managed to get one of those bounces we've all been hearing about. I would prefer for it to be a convention boost, which often can't be helped and are temporary, versus a "Kenosha bounce" which would suggest that his "law and order" strategy is working. I hope that we get more higher quality polls this week that can confirm or deny this, but I still can't help but feel discouraged that there are some in this country, should this poll be accurate, who are still trusting Trump in spite of his proven compulsive lying and who are buying into his rhetoric and failing to see the bigger picture of all the overlapping crises on his watch in this country. Perhaps I overestimated the attention span of our populace again. Seriously, what is it going to take for Trump to be unequivocally rejected to the point where all he has is the 38% or so that constitutes his base? Even then, that's still too many people who support him.

[SenatorCouzens]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Remember the lectures by the red avatars that there weren't going to be any RNC bump.....?

I sure do.

Imagine bragging about being down 6. That’s how screwed Trump is.

(1) It shows the race isn't locked in, but is fluid; it's possible for things to continue to trend in Trump's direction. (2) Trump has an electoral college advantage; he could lose the popular vote by 3% and win. (3) There could be a bit of a polling error, and Trump support could be underpolled somewhat; remember 2016.

[WD]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Remember the lectures by the red avatars that there weren't going to be any RNC bump.....?

I sure do.

Imagine bragging about being down 6. That’s how screwed Trump is.

(1) It shows the race isn't locked in, but is fluid; it's possible for things to continue to trend in Trump's direction. (2) Trump has an electoral college advantage; he could lose the popular vote by 3% and win. (3) There could be a bit of a polling error, and Trump support could be underpolled somewhat; remember 2016.

Fair, but I disagree on your last point. I think it was more undecideds breaking massively towards Trump in 2016, than him being under polled. It wasn’t necessarily a polling error. Most pollsters got Clinton’s vote share spot on, it’s just that she was in the mid to low forties in many states and undecideds swung the election to Trump.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What am I missing here?? 

Trump is doing 10 points worse in this poll than he was in 2016. 

If he does 10 points worse in the election, Biden wins <400 electoral votes. 

If he’s just polling 10 points worse, the polls can be wrong by three “normal polling errors” (which should be a <0.5% probability) and he would still lose. 

I don’t see how anyone can interpret this as a good poll for Trump, or even one that should give him a shred of hope.

[pbrower2a]

6% leads  do not ordinarily disintegrate this late in a campaign season. Even if the relevant distinction is that Biden needs a national advantage of 3% because states such as California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Washington, Maryland, and Massachusetts will give him gigantic margins and the difference between a 55% and 80% share in the vote will not make a difference in the Electoral College. The states elect the President; the People don't. That is federalism.

This said, Trump got a bump, which is not surprising when he gets practically all the news coverage for his freak show. Fear and loathing get attention. But after the convention, news coverage will be closer to even. Anyone who despised Trump before the Reactionary National Convention will still despise him, as he has offered nothing really new except a command that people follow him as if they dread a torture chamber, concentration camp, or summary execution.     

[It’s so Joever]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Remember the lectures by the red avatars that there weren't going to be any RNC bump.....?

I sure do.

Thank you for this gem of a quote.

[Holmes]

Why bump this

[It’s so Joever]

Why bump this

I just felt like giving my gratitude.

[ExSky]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Remember the lectures by the red avatars that there weren't going to be any RNC bump.....?

I sure do.

OOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA