NM-New Mexico Political Report/PPP: Biden +14

[LimoLiberal]

https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2020/10/06/biden-with-leads-trump-by-14-points-in-nm/

Biden (D) - 53
Trump (R-inc) - 39
Other - 4
Unsure - 4

The exact same numbers as their mid-June poll.

[NOVA Green]

So confirms Gary Johnson voters are breaking hard Biden in 2020....   

[NOVA Green]

Also...

Both major party candidates received the support of most of the voters from their own parties. The poll found that 86 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Biden to just 8 percent who said they would vote for Trump. And 84 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Trump, while 10 percent said they would vote for Biden. Biden leads among independents by a 43 percent to 35 percent margin.

Favorable exchange any way you look at those numbers....

And:

Biden also has a significant lead among Hispanic or Latino voters, leading 67 percent to 26 percent. New Mexico has the highest percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters of any state in the country. Trump, meanwhile, leads among white voters, 53 percent to 41 percent. Biden leads among Native American voters 66 percent to 18 percent, while other ethnicities back Biden 54 percent to 16 percent for Trump—just two points ahead of Jorgensen, though the sample is a low number.

I wouldn't necessarily try to read too much into the Latino voter sub-sample at this point, since it's a bit complex when you get into the "old spanish" vs newer Latino populations....

[Eraserhead]

So confirms Gary Johnson voters are breaking hard Biden in 2020....   

Not as surprising here as it might be in some other states.

[NOVA Green]

So confirms Gary Johnson voters are breaking hard Biden in 2020....   

Not as surprising here as it might be in some other states.

Possible, although I believe in general at a national level Johnson-Weld '16 voters will disproportionately vote Biden in '20, predominately because of their age brackets, despite being a bit more Male and a bit more Anglo than the rest of their demographics....

The hardcore Libertarians will likely keep the party at maybe somewhere around a 2% ntl avg, and close to that in most states....

Still, Rio Rancho looks extremely likely to flip in '20 and Bernalillo County might end up more like the Obama '08 (60-39 D) numbers vs the Obama '12 (56-39 D), let alone the HRC '16 (52-34-11 D-R-L) numbers....

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: New Mexico President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-01

Summary: D: 53%, R: 39%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 30 - October 1
886 voters
MoE: 3.3%

Biden 53% (n/c)
Trump 39% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (not previously included)
Someone else 2% (not previously included)
Not sure 4% (-4)

[woodley park]

Thought this thread seemed appropriate for a blast from the past concern troll article, courtesy (as always) of Politico:

Trump launches ambitious play to turn New Mexico red

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/16/trump-new-mexico-2020-elections-1497451

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — John McCain lost New Mexico by nearly 15 percentage points in 2008. Four years later, Mitt Romney pulled two top staffers from the ground here with weeks to go before Election Day — admitting defeat even before Barack Obama trounced him by 51 points in the Santa Fe area.

The Land of Enchantment has voted for a Republican presidential candidate only once since 1992. With a considerable nonwhite voter population and all-Democratic congressional delegation, it’s not exactly fertile ground for a surprise GOP victory.

But then, President Donald Trump has seldom shied away from a long-shot challenge.

Despite the Democratic Party’s statewide success here last November — winning two congressional seats up for grabs, defending a third and defeating Republican nominee Steve Pearce for the governor’s mansion — Trump and his aides are betting they can flip New Mexico next fall and expand his electoral playing field

Also worth noting that the one time since 1992 that New Mexico voted Republican was 2004, and yet folks here have the audacity to put the Kerry and Biden campaigns in the same league.

[Skill and Chance]

OK, ready to admit I was wrong about this one. 

[Skill and Chance]

Thought this thread seemed appropriate for a blast from the past concern troll article, courtesy (as always) of Politico:

Trump launches ambitious play to turn New Mexico red

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/16/trump-new-mexico-2020-elections-1497451

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — John McCain lost New Mexico by nearly 15 percentage points in 2008. Four years later, Mitt Romney pulled two top staffers from the ground here with weeks to go before Election Day — admitting defeat even before Barack Obama trounced him by 51 points in the Santa Fe area.

The Land of Enchantment has voted for a Republican presidential candidate only once since 1992. With a considerable nonwhite voter population and all-Democratic congressional delegation, it’s not exactly fertile ground for a surprise GOP victory.

But then, President Donald Trump has seldom shied away from a long-shot challenge.

Despite the Democratic Party’s statewide success here last November — winning two congressional seats up for grabs, defending a third and defeating Republican nominee Steve Pearce for the governor’s mansion — Trump and his aides are betting they can flip New Mexico next fall and expand his electoral playing field

Also worth noting that the one time since 1992 that New Mexico voted Republican was 2004, and yet folks here have the audacity to put the Kerry and Biden campaigns in the same league.

Kerry was a good candidate.  Holding the incumbent to a narrow 286 EV/<51% of the PV win (and flipping the advantage in the EC) in the 1st presidential election after 9/11 was an impressive feat. 2004 could have easily been a 1972 or 1984 margin for a GOP incumbent. 

Biden's campaign is TBD and if he wins by 12, that would indeed prove he's a better candidate than Kerry, but if he wins by 6 in this environment, I'm not so sure. 

[Pollster]

Suggests NM-02 is a tossup.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

So confirms Gary Johnson voters are breaking hard Biden in 2020....   

A lot of working class Hispanics and Natives fell for Trump's scam in 2016 in NM. They aren't making that same mistake again.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

good for trump

[Calthrina950]

So confirms Gary Johnson voters are breaking hard Biden in 2020....   

A lot of working class Hispanics and Natives fell for Trump's scam in 2016 in NM. They aren't making that same mistake again.

Trump only got 40% of the vote in New Mexico last time. Gary Johnson drew 9%; Trump did nearly 3% worse than Mitt Romney in the state. I'm sure he probably picked up some of Obama's Hispanic and Native American support, but the vast bulk of what Clinton lost seems to have gone to Johnson. Biden is regaining most of that lost support, and may also be making gains among voters in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas who supported Romney and McCain previously.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Safe Biden

[Hope For A New Era]

The way polls are going, watch NM vote to the right of the nation now lol

[MT Treasurer]

OK, ready to admit I was wrong about this one.  

I mean, it’s still going to trend Republican with those Biden national leads, but yeah, it’s not competitive in this environment.

[jamestroll]

OK, ready to admit I was wrong about this one.  

I mean, it’s still going to trend Republican with those Biden national leads, but yeah, it’s not competitive in this environment.

If Biden's lead is large enough, a lot of states will "trend" Republican.

I am 99% sure that Illinois will swing to Biden but will "trend" Republican.

I am even 50-50 whether Virginia trends to the Democrats or GOP relative to the national average. Not sure if Biden can get to Kaine Numbers. But we shall see.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

A lot of states are going to trend Republican no matter what, because with the way Atlas uses the word "trend" the trends of all fifty states sum to zero by definition.