TX Gov: SUSA says Perry @ 41%, leads Strayhorn by 21%

[Gustaf]

I just had to post this...I mean, lol.

1964

Robert T. Stafford, Republican 86,650 53.0%
Robert T. Stafford, Independent 7,781 4.8%
Robert T. Stafford, (no party) 27 .0%
Bernard G. O'Shea, Democratic 68,987 42.2%
Scattering 7 .0%

Anyhow, Vermont is different from Texas because Vermont likes independents. I mean, come on. This one little state contains ALL independents actually seated in congress, and is in fact 2/3 independent in its congress delegation.

Secondly, Sanders is a very good fit for Democrats in Vermont and was the overwhelming front-runner. Two things seperating him from Friedman.

Thirdly, obviously all Democrats are not voting Bell, only about half of them, maybe. That's still enough to make sure that no one else can beat Perry.

Vlad, are you honestly claiming that Perry is guranteed nothing? 60% of Texas voters voted for Bush. Where do you think these guys are going? Are they gonna vote Bell? No. Are they gonna vote Friedman? No. They're gonna split between Perry and Straythorn, and most will go to Perry, while the remaining 40% will split between Friedman and Bell. Perry has been very, very stable in the polls, constantly hovering around 40%. It's fairly obvious that he's unlikely to lose more than that. Despite Straythorn losing support, she's the only one actually competing for voters that could vote Perry, and thus the only one who is actually able to win.

[Sam Spade]

Vlad, are you honestly claiming that Perry is guranteed nothing? 60% of Texas voters voted for Bush. Where do you think these guys are going? Are they gonna vote Bell? No. Are they gonna vote Friedman? No. They're gonna split between Perry and Straythorn, and most will go to Perry, while the remaining 40% will split between Friedman and Bell. Perry has been very, very stable in the polls, constantly hovering around 40%. It's fairly obvious that he's unlikely to lose more than that. Despite Straythorn losing support, she's the only one actually competing for voters that could vote Perry, and thus the only one who is actually able to win.

This is exactly right, Gustaf.  As I have said before, Perry has a stable 40% at the polls that will vote for him barring major scandal or a "Clayton Williams" moment.  These are the hardcore social conservatives in rural Texas, Republican party banner-wavers, suburban voters and a surprisingly strong number of Hispanics in rural and suburban Texas.

And the really important point is about half of Strayhorn's voters (about 7-10% of the voting populace) are moderate Republicans (like the poster M at this site, who's been gone for too long a while), who are only voting for her because they think Perry's too conservative on social issues (and perhaps not enough on economic ones) and they like having a option that reflects their beliefs more.

If she left the race, they would move over to Perry pretty quickly.  The rest of her voters would divide between Bell and Kinky.

[jimrtex]

As I have said before, I think people are getting a little to confident in the fact that Kinky can't win. After all he does have Dean Barkley on his squad (the same guy that coordinated Jesse Ventura's independent campaign for Minnesota governor). I like how he stole the media from Perry. Dean bought the charity boots, gave me a warm feeling inside.

Ventura was a radio talk host in the Twin Cities.  Find a precinct map from his election and it forms almost a perfect circle around the Minneapolis area.  Friedman is a novelist and Texas has dozens of TV markets.

Minnesota has same day registration, and Ventura got a lot of same day walk up voters.  Minnesota had an almost perfect split between the Democrat and Republican candidates that let Ventura squeek through..

[Eraserhead]

Honestly I can't understand why every texan alive wouldn't want to vote for Kinky Friedman. Save yourself for Kinky y'all.