TX Gov: SUSA says Perry @ 41%, leads Strayhorn by 21%

[Sam Spade]

Getting regular polls from SUSA of the TX Gov. race now.  Quite nice.

Anyway, there ain't much different from the other poll, except this sample is probably a tad too Republican (in the same as the other was probably a tad too Democrat).

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c90fa3e7-dd42-4dfd-917b-a05519181646

[True Democrat]

That seems like an awfully low number of undecideds. . .

[Know Your Rights!]

That seems like an awfully low number of undecideds. . .

I think that has to do with the way the question was phrased. "If you were standing in the voting booth right now..."

I'd be interested in seeing how Kinky would be doing without Strayhorn in the race.

[Sam Spade]

That seems like an awfully low number of undecideds. . .

SUSA pushes undecideds hard, always has.  Perry will have a solid 40% though, unless he does something stupid (which can and does happen).

[Sam Spade]

That seems like an awfully low number of undecideds. . .

I think that has to do with the way the question was phrased. "If you were standing in the voting booth right now..."

I'd be interested in seeing how Kinky would be doing without Strayhorn in the race.

Without Strayhorn, it would become about...

Perry 45%-50%
Bell 20%-25%
Kinky 20%-25%

Republicans would move back to Perry, Democrats would split between Bell and Kinky.  Strayhorn right now is most likely pulling about even between Democrats and Republicans, so this is my best guess.

The best opportunity for Perry to be knocked off is Strayhorn and that becomes most favorable if Kinky leaves the race.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Bell and/or Friedman should drop out and endorse Strayhorn. 

[minionofmidas]

I've come across Kinky's Why The Hell Not t-shirt right here in Frankfurt, on a mate of mine.

[bgwah]

Think the map will have many counties in the >20 shade?

Will Bell probably at least win the counties that border Mexico?

Could Friedman win any counties, maybe Travis?

Stayhorn has got to win a few?

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Texas Governor by Survey USA on 2006-05-21

Summary: D: 18%, R: 41%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Sam Spade]

Think the map will have many counties in the >20 shade?

Will Bell probably at least win the counties that border Mexico?

Could Friedman win any counties, maybe Travis?

Stayhorn has got to win a few?

Granted, it's a subsample, but if Perry is pulling in 45% of the Hispanic vote with the rest split amongst the other three (the last SUSA poll showed this as well), you can expect him to win pretty much all of those border counties (maybe Bell wins Starr County and a couple of the still-reliable Democratic ones). 

Things have changed down at the border, though the Rep. party has no bench there, they continue to get greater amounts of votes in statewide and federal elections.  Rural areas, especially.

Bell's support is going to be mainly among inner-city Dems, so his votes will probably get nullified by suburbs.  He might stand a chance in Dallas County, but that's probably not it.

As for Kinky and Strayhorn, the most likely candidates are the plethora of rural uninhabited counties that dot a good part of the state.  It's simply easier to win a county when there's only 1,000 people voting, as opposed to 100,000 people voting.  Travis County is a possibility, though, I agree.

[jimrtex]

Will Bell probably at least win the counties that border Mexico?

Could Friedman win any counties, maybe Travis?

Stayhorn has got to win a few?

Strayhorn was mayor of Austin, so I suspect that she may win Travis County.

Bell could win a few counties like Jefferson, Starr, and Duval.  It is hard to say how he wil do in the larger border counties.  In 2002, Perry was facing Tony Sanchez who was from South Texas and had a lot more money than Bell does.

If Friedman wins a county, it would probably have to be Loving.

[jimrtex]

That seems like an awfully low number of undecideds. . .

SUSA pushes undecideds hard, always has.  Perry will have a solid 40% though, unless he does something stupid (which can and does happen).

They also cut down 1200 polled, to 1021 registered voters to, 600 likely voters.  So many who say they are "undecided" are probably moved to unlikely to vote.  I can't imagine 40% of people who say they are registered as admitting that they weren't likely to vote.

[jimrtex]

That seems like an awfully low number of undecideds. . .

SUSA pushes undecideds hard, always has.  Perry will have a solid 40% though, unless he does something stupid (which can and does happen).

What do you think that they mean by their regions of Harris County, North, West, and East?

The counts are Harris C 85, North 201, East 278, and West 41.

So that must mean Harris County is literally Harris County, North must include DFW.  Is east everything from I-35 east including Laredo, San Antonio, Austin, and Waco?  Does that make any sense from a polling viewpoint?

[adam]

Go Kinky!

[Gabu]

This one is shaping up to be quite the race... for second place.

[Eraserhead]

Bell and Strayhorn need to drop out and endorse Kinky. Why the hell not?

[Sam Spade]

Bell and Strayhorn need to drop out and endorse Kinky. Why the hell not?

Eh.  Would lead to a 60%-40% Perry win, but if that's what you want, hey go for it.

The only one who can beat Perry is Strayhorn and only if Kinky gets out of the race.

[Eraserhead]

I doubt Perry would get 60% with a 41% approval rating.

[adam]

As I have said before, I think people are getting a little to confident in the fact that Kinky can't win. After all he does have Dean Barkley on his squad (the same guy that coordinated Jesse Ventura's independent campaign for Minnesota governor). I like how he stole the media from Perry. Dean bought the charity boots, gave me a warm feeling inside.

[Sam Spade]

As I have said before, I think people are getting a little to confident in the fact that Kinky can't win. After all he does have Dean Barkley on his squad (the same guy that coordinated Jesse Ventura's independent campaign for Minnesota governor). I like how he stole the media from Perry. Dean bought the charity boots, gave me a warm feeling inside.

Minnesota has a strong tradition of independent and third-party candidates.  Texas is almost the exact opposite; the rules are set up to discourage third-party candidates to the extreme.  The Libertarian party regularly runs candidates in Texas, but since there are large parts of the state where Democrats and Republicans don't compete, they can perform better than in other states where the parties regularly do battle in most areas.

Besides, unless Kinky can make inroads into the ultra-Republican suburbs of Houston, DFW and San Antonio or into Hispanic voters (these two groups form the base of Perry's coalition), where are his votes going to come from?  In the last two SUSA incarnations of this poll, Perry is pulling over 45% of Hispanics against three other candidates, which seems quite astonishing to me. 

Is he going to steal away the core Democrats that Bell will get simply because he has a D next to his name (ie, parts of South Texas and inner-city Houston, Dallas and San Antonio)?  Is he going to pull the moderate Democrats and Republicans who are presently supporting Strayhorn because she has tons of money to compete?  Independents simply aren't a strong enough voice in the state to win on them alone.

I'm just presenting some logical questions and some concerns dealing with his candidacy and the possibility of his winning.  To me these are realistic questions, granted there is still a lot of time left, but the way coalitions work in Texas, you have to be able to make inroads into certain groups in order to have a shot.

[adam]

As I have said before, I think people are getting a little to confident in the fact that Kinky can't win. After all he does have Dean Barkley on his squad (the same guy that coordinated Jesse Ventura's independent campaign for Minnesota governor). I like how he stole the media from Perry. Dean bought the charity boots, gave me a warm feeling inside.

Minnesota has a strong tradition of independent and third-party candidates.  Texas is almost the exact opposite; the rules are set up to discourage third-party candidates to the extreme.  The Libertarian party regularly runs candidates in Texas, but since there are large parts of the state where Democrats and Republicans don't compete, they can perform better than in other states where the parties regularly do battle in most areas.

Besides, unless Kinky can make inroads into the ultra-Republican suburbs of Houston, DFW and San Antonio or into Hispanic voters (these two groups form the base of Perry's coalition), where are his votes going to come from?  In the last two SUSA incarnations of this poll, Perry is pulling over 45% of Hispanics against three other candidates, which seems quite astonishing to me. 

Is he going to steal away the core Democrats that Bell will get simply because he has a D next to his name (ie, parts of South Texas and inner-city Houston, Dallas and San Antonio)?  Is he going to pull the moderate Democrats and Republicans who are presently supporting Strayhorn because she has tons of money to compete?  Independents simply aren't a strong enough voice in the state to win on them alone.

I'm just presenting some logical questions and some concerns dealing with his candidacy and the possibility of his winning.  To me these are realistic questions, granted there is still a lot of time left, but the way coalitions work in Texas, you have to be able to make inroads into certain groups in order to have a shot.

I think he has a good chance to cut into the general public alone. People in general are sick and tired of Perry's blown legislation, they don't want to return back to the democratic past, and they don't buy Strayhorn as a real independent because she isn't. All in all, Kinky draws demographics very evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independents.

Your questions are logical and good ones. However, I'll answer with a question of my own. Why is it that Kinky is the only one that has gained ground? He started out (in the 4 person scenario) with 8%, he is now at 16%. All of the other candidates (Perry included) have lost ground since the begining of the 4 person scenario. If trends continue, Kinky will win by a close but sweet margin.

It may be my bias. I dislike Strayhorn to no end simply because she is illogical. A publically funded 13th and 14th grade? Whatever, we can hardly afford to fund the first 12. Perry has proven to be a failure, especially with his recently introduced TransTexas Corridor project. And as far as Chris Bell is concerned...who is this guy? What does he stand for and where is he? He is virtually non-existant. It could be due in part to the fact that he was a one term congressman that lost his re-eletion run in the primaries. Granted that redistricting mess that Tom DeLoser orchestrated, but still.

I just want change, and Kinky is serving it on a silver platter.

[Gustaf]

Vlad, I think you're avoiding the real issue here. Bell is guranteed a Democratic core vote and Straythorn is doing very well. Perry ain't going down any further, because he's a Republican running in Texas. It can't be done.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Vlad, I think you're avoiding the real issue here. Bell is guranteed a Democratic core vote and Straythorn is doing very well. Perry ain't going down any further, because he's a Republican running in Texas. It can't be done.

In Vermont, Democrats tend to not blindly vote for the Democratic nominee. In 1990, the Democratic nominee for Congress got 3%, a whooping 6315 votes.

http://vermont-archives.org/govinfo/elect/Rep10.htm

[adam]

Vlad, I think you're avoiding the real issue here. Bell is guranteed a Democratic core vote and Straythorn is doing very well. Perry ain't going down any further, because he's a Republican running in Texas. It can't be done.

Bell is garunteed nothing because no one knows much about him, which in reality is probably the best thing going for him at this point. Democrats are more likely to vote for Kinky than bell because they have actually heard from Kinky where as Bell is just coming off as ticket filler.

What gives you the idea that she is doing well? She just dropped 12 points in the polls, by my standards; that is pretty dismal. Strayhorn is only ahead of Kinky by 4 points and Bell by 2. Shouldn't a very experienced "conservative" comptroller be doing better than a one term congressman and a country musician?

Finally, like Bell...Perry is garunteed nothing. His proposals have been giant busts and a lot of people around here (Republicans included) are getting a little fed up with the focus on gay marriage and the neglect for border issues and property tax atroscities.

I'm not saying that Kinky isn't a long shot, but I believe in him...and so do a lot of other people. He may not have the money that Perry and Strayhorn have...but he does have a following. As I said look over the polls...Kinky has done nothing but climb while Strayhorn has done nothing but plummet.  Kinky can do it.

[Jacobtm]

Bell and Strayhorn need to drop out and endorse Kinky. Why the hell not?

Hell yeah!