NJ-02 (Monmouth): Kennedy +6

[VAR]

Kennedy 50%
Van Drew 44%

PRES: Biden 50-45
SEN: Booker 48-40

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_NJ_100520/

[Gracile]

Van Drew's party switch has to be one of the stupidest political decisions of all time.

[Upstater]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

[new_patomic]

Van Drew's party switch has to be one of the stupidest political decisions of all time.

His freakout over impeachment only becomes dumber and dumber with hindsight.

He really couldn't have just waited a month or two to see how it settled.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 26-October 1
588 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Registered voters
Kennedy 49%
Van Drew 44%
Another candidate 1%
No one <1%
Undecided 5%

Booker 47%
Mehta 39%
Another candidate 4%
No one 1%
Undecided 8%

High turnout model (likely voters)
Kennedy 50%
Van Drew 44%

Booker 48%
Mehta 40%

Low turnout model (likely voters)
Kennedy 51%
Van Drew 44%

Booker 47%
Mehta 41%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

He'd have lost his primary.

[Upstater]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

He'd have lost his primary.

I think he'd have a fighting chance.

[Roll Roons]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

He'd have lost his primary.

No, he wouldn't have. New Jersey is dominated by machines who would have likely protected him. I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy wins and then gets beaten by either Chris Brown or Mike Testa in 2022.

[new_patomic]

Wasn't his initial opposition to impeachment based in part on the idea that it was too unpopular and might cost him the election? Like not just the primary, but the general.

Or was he really genuine in believing Trump did nothing wrong.

[wbrocks67]

IIRC, this is now the 3rd poll with Kennedy up ~5

[Ferguson97]

One Kennedy leaves, another enters.

[Xing]

Guys, I'm starting to think that Van Drew's decision to make his opposition to Trump's impeachment his hill to die on might have been a mistake.

[WD]

LOL Van Drew is an absolute moron. The guy wanted to be a Congressman his entire career, and he threw it all away because he thought impeachment would hurt him. This traitor won’t be missed.

[Zaybay]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

He'd have lost his primary.

No, he wouldn't have. New Jersey is dominated by machines who would have likely protected him. I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy wins and then gets beaten by either Chris Brown or Mike Testa in 2022.

Said machines were trying to recruit a candidate against Van Drew and were planning to give the candidate their endorsements and ballot line. He wouldn't have survived.

[LabourJersey]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

He'd have lost his primary.

No, he wouldn't have. New Jersey is dominated by machines who would have likely protected him. I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy wins and then gets beaten by either Chris Brown or Mike Testa in 2022.

That's fair. Redistricting in 2022 is going to be tricky, but if Kennedy wins next month she'll start out as the most vulnerable incumbent in NJ.

My guess is that Malinowski will go into Biden's State Dept., and they will create a GOP district in the northwest part of the state, taking in conservative areas of NJ-7, NJ-11 and maybe NJ-5. Sherill will get the Union County parts of NJ-7 to make her more safe. Kim's district is kind of a wild card but he would also be very vulnerable in 2022 unless he gets a much more Democratic district, which I don't see happening cause of South Jersey geography

[Blair]

Hilarious as he’s pretty much given a house seat to a loyal generic democrat foot soldier.

He could have stayed and voted against everything but he’s too vain for that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Damn, Kennedy has been really impressive so far.

Is it because she's a good candidate, or are people wary of Van Drew for the party switch... or perhaps both?

[VAR]

Damn, Kennedy has been really impressive so far.

Is it because she's a good candidate, or are people wary of Van Drew for the party switch... or perhaps both?

Could it be because Biden is leading by 5 points in the district?

[VAR]

Lean D for now, but it’s hard to imagine this district potentially voting to the left of TX-24.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Damn, Kennedy has been really impressive so far.

Is it because she's a good candidate, or are people wary of Van Drew for the party switch... or perhaps both?

Could it be because Biden is leading by 5 points in the district?

I mean, Kennedy is outperforming him here.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Damn, Kennedy has been really impressive so far.

Is it because she's a good candidate, or are people wary of Van Drew for the party switch... or perhaps both?

I do think she has personal appeal. I was in NJ-02 two weeks ago and there were Kennedy signs absolutely everywhere. I've never seen so many yard signs for a house election before.

[GALeftist]

Big ol L for my name Jeff

[LabourJersey]

Hilarious as he’s pretty much given a house seat to a loyal generic democrat foot soldier.

He could have stayed and voted against everything but he’s too vain for that.

Like I've said before, he's not a smart man. When he cast his ballot for Speaker, instead of picking a person other than Pelosi he voted "NO"

[Progressive Pessimist]

If this ends up being true, it is going to be even more satisfying than when my own district rejected Scott Garrett in 2016 (it was maybe the only silver-lining of that year). Give me back that 11D-1R delegation (I don't think Kim or Malinowski are going to lose.)!

[Devils30]

Van Drew really didn't think when he switched.  He'd be in a Lean/Likely D race if he didn't switch.

He'd have lost his primary.

No, he wouldn't have. New Jersey is dominated by machines who would have likely protected him. I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy wins and then gets beaten by either Chris Brown or Mike Testa in 2022.

That's fair. Redistricting in 2022 is going to be tricky, but if Kennedy wins next month she'll start out as the most vulnerable incumbent in NJ.

My guess is that Malinowski will go into Biden's State Dept., and they will create a GOP district in the northwest part of the state, taking in conservative areas of NJ-7, NJ-11 and maybe NJ-5. Sherill will get the Union County parts of NJ-7 to make her more safe. Kim's district is kind of a wild card but he would also be very vulnerable in 2022 unless he gets a much more Democratic district, which I don't see happening cause of South Jersey geography

Makes sense, maybe give Sherill a lot of blue trending Somerset County and make NJ-11 Safe D.