Monmouth NJ-2: Biden +5

[Devils30]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_NJ_100520/

Biden 50%
Trump 45%

Van Drew down by roughly the same margin.

Trump 51-46 in 2016.

[Tender Branson]

„In the presidential election, Joe Biden holds a small lead over Donald Trump in the district – 48% to 45% among all registered voters, 50% to 45% among likely voters in a high turnout election, and 49% to 45% in a low turnout election. Trump won this district by 5 points in 2016.“

[Ferguson97]

Phenomenal news!

Van Drew might go down as having some of the worst political instincts of all time.

[Podgy the Bear]

As I have said before--after Biden winning, my next wish is to see this traitor Van Drew go down.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 26-October 1
588 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Registered voters
Biden 48%
Trump 45%
Another candidate 2%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 0% (but some voters)
No one 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 3%

High turnout model (likely voters)
Biden 50%
Trump 45%

Low turnout model (likely voters)
Biden 49%
Trump 45%

[kireev]

81% White, non-Hispanic
  9% Black
  7% Hispanic
  2% Asian
  1% Other

The sample is too white. The district is 12.1% black and 16.5% Hispanic. Both of them should probably be around 11% of the voting electorate or so.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

81% White, non-Hispanic
  9% Black
  7% Hispanic
  2% Asian
  1% Other

The sample is too white. The district is 12.1% black and 16.5% Hispanic. Both of them should probably be around 11% of the voting electorate or so.

So if anything this poll is underestimating Dems?

[We Live in Black and White]

81% White, non-Hispanic
  9% Black
  7% Hispanic
  2% Asian
  1% Other

The sample is too white. The district is 12.1% black and 16.5% Hispanic. Both of them should probably be around 11% of the voting electorate or so.

So if anything this poll is underestimating Dems?

Hahahaha holy s**t

Suck it, Jefferson.

[kireev]

81% White, non-Hispanic
  9% Black
  7% Hispanic
  2% Asian
  1% Other

The sample is too white. The district is 12.1% black and 16.5% Hispanic. Both of them should probably be around 11% of the voting electorate or so.

So if anything this poll is underestimating Dems?

Maybe by just a little bit.  Party registration looks about right: 32% DEM, 30% REP. In reality it's 32.6% DEM, 29.2% REP. So a tiny bit REP-friendly.

[Alben Barkley]

F—k Van Drew, that traitor deserves to lose by much worse.

[Gracile]

81% White, non-Hispanic
  9% Black
  7% Hispanic
  2% Asian
  1% Other

The sample is too white. The district is 12.1% black and 16.5% Hispanic. Both of them should probably be around 11% of the voting electorate or so.

Those numbers are only slightly off from the 2018 CVAP numbers for NJ-02, though (10.3% Hispanic and 12.5% Black). It's also possible their model is assuming lower turnout rates for non-white voters relative to whites.

[kireev]

81% White, non-Hispanic
  9% Black
  7% Hispanic
  2% Asian
  1% Other

The sample is too white. The district is 12.1% black and 16.5% Hispanic. Both of them should probably be around 11% of the voting electorate or so.

Those numbers are only slightly off from the 2018 CVAP numbers for NJ-02, though (10.3% Hispanic and 12.5% Black). It's also possible their model is assuming lower turnout rates for non-white voters relative to whites.

Well, that was a registered voter sample.

[American2020]

2008   
Obama 53 - McCain 45%

2012   
Obama 53.5 - Romney 45.4%

2016   
Trump 50.6 - Clinton 46.0%

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's pathetic how much this poll made my day.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Obama - Trump areas like this are (even narrolwy) going Biden, Trump is beyond finished. To say nothing of the even stronger swings we're going to see in upscale, educated burbs

[Gass3268]

If Obama - Trump areas like this are (even narrolwy) going Biden, Trump is beyond finished. To say nothing of the even stronger swings we're going to see in upscale, educated burbs

The Democratic collation appears to be 2018 on steroids, with a little bit of 2000 thrown (Up with seniors).

[JRP1994]

Was Kennedy gonna primary Van Drew or something? He’s always been a stooge for Norcross, the South Jersey Dem Party boss. Had to be something internal for him to make the switch, or he’s just massively stupid. There probably has to be more going on behind the scenes - if you’re connected to Norcross, your seat as a Dem is generally fairly safe.

Hell even Christie, Mr. Take on Corruption, ended up in Norcross’ pocket

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

That district is like Ohio.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

good for trump