May 23rd Arkansas and Idaho Primaries

[Flying Dog]

Arkansas and Idaho have primaries tomarrow.

Arkansas Governor:

Dem Primary: Beebe faces no opposition

Rep Primary: Hutchison faces no opposition

Are there any interesting races in Arkansas?

Idaho Governor:Even though this is an open seat, it's not much of a contest. Congressman Butch Otter, a former Lieutenant Governor, is the strong favorite. He faces a primary challenge from health care administrator Dan Adamson and in the general, he will face newpaper publisher James Brady, who ran in 2002. But few expect either candidate to be more than a nuisance.

Democrats

    * Jerry Brady - Newspaper Publisher, Attorney, Ex-Peace Corps Official & '02 Nominee
    * Lee Chaney Sr.
Will Otters seat be conteasted?

[Flying Dog]

Idaho

    * Idaho's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Butch Otter (R) is running for governor, and his seat is solidly Republican in most elections, though it elected a Democrat in 1990 and 1992. The district contains more or less the north and western portions of the state, including all of the Panhandle and most of Boise. Former Congressional staffer Norm Semanko, state Controller Keith Johnson, state Representative Bill Sali, former state Senator Sheila Sorensen, Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez, and state Senator Skip Brandt are among Republicans competing for the seat. Attorney Larry Grant and North Idaho businessman Cecil Kelly are running on the Democratic side, with Grant the likely nominee. A new independent party called the United Party [11] has also fielded a candidate, newspaper publisher and small business owner Andy Hedden-Nicely. The Republican primary could become very bitter giving either the independents or the Democrats a shot at winning here.

[ian]

Look out in Arkansas for the Lt. Gov. race and the Treasurer race.
I see a definite future for a couple of the Democratic Lt. Gov. candidates (Mike Hathorne and Bill Halter--yes, the guy who dropped out of the gubernatorial race).  Halter is going to stomp everyone else; really, he's the only person who can stop Jim Holt (the guy who ran against Lincoln in '04).
As far as the Treasurer race goes, this young Democrat, Mac Campbell, is going to be something special sometime in the future.  I have seen him speak a couple of times, and I am really impressed!  That primary is going to be close.  There are three experienced candidates running.
Attorney General will be another race to watch, but it's simply not as important as the previous two.

[jokerman]

Arkansas Lt. Gubernatorial Race will be interesting.  Halter has been spending money on ads left and right with all of his money from connections across the country.  I think people distrust him, however, and he will be prevented from breaking majority.  He'll probably get in the low 40's, and face St. Sen. Tim Woolridge (A great guy who I've met) in a runoff.

[ian]

Arkansas Lt. Gubernatorial Race will be interesting.  Halter has been spending money on ads left and right with all of his money from connections across the country.  I think people distrust him, however, and he will be prevented from breaking majority.  He'll probably get in the low 40's, and face St. Sen. Tim Woolridge (A great guy who I've met) in a runoff.

Woolridge introduced a bill in the state Senate to legalize lynching again, so I've heard.  Thank goodness he's not going to win.

[socaldem]

Look out in Arkansas for the Lt. Gov. race and the Treasurer race.
I see a definite future for a couple of the Democratic Lt. Gov. candidates (Mike Hathorne and Bill Halter--yes, the guy who dropped out of the gubernatorial race).  Halter is going to stomp everyone else; really, he's the only person who can stop Jim Holt (the guy who ran against Lincoln in '04).
As far as the Treasurer race goes, this young Democrat, Mac Campbell, is going to be something special sometime in the future.  I have seen him speak a couple of times, and I am really impressed!  That primary is going to be close.  There are three experienced candidates running.
Attorney General will be another race to watch, but it's simply not as important as the previous two.

Why do you not consider AG important?  In most states its the second most powerful position. 

I imagine that Gunner Delay doesn't really have much of a chance in the general... which Democrat should we be looking out for, though?

[ian]

Look out in Arkansas for the Lt. Gov. race and the Treasurer race.
I see a definite future for a couple of the Democratic Lt. Gov. candidates (Mike Hathorne and Bill Halter--yes, the guy who dropped out of the gubernatorial race).  Halter is going to stomp everyone else; really, he's the only person who can stop Jim Holt (the guy who ran against Lincoln in '04).
As far as the Treasurer race goes, this young Democrat, Mac Campbell, is going to be something special sometime in the future.  I have seen him speak a couple of times, and I am really impressed!  That primary is going to be close.  There are three experienced candidates running.
Attorney General will be another race to watch, but it's simply not as important as the previous two.

Why do you not consider AG important?  In most states its the second most powerful position. 

I imagine that Gunner Delay doesn't really have much of a chance in the general... which Democrat should we be looking out for, though?

Perhaps I shold have phrased that better than I did.  AGs are very important; I was getting at the fact that the primary race, from what I've seen, won't be too close.  In comparison, it will be like like the Michigan Senate race.
Robert Herzfeld, a really nice guy, will be the one who wins in the end, I think (even though there have been no polls to confirm this [/frustration]).  He's a young guy who definitely has a bright future in Arkansas and maybe national politics.

[jokerman]

Look out in Arkansas for the Lt. Gov. race and the Treasurer race.
I see a definite future for a couple of the Democratic Lt. Gov. candidates (Mike Hathorne and Bill Halter--yes, the guy who dropped out of the gubernatorial race).  Halter is going to stomp everyone else; really, he's the only person who can stop Jim Holt (the guy who ran against Lincoln in '04).
As far as the Treasurer race goes, this young Democrat, Mac Campbell, is going to be something special sometime in the future.  I have seen him speak a couple of times, and I am really impressed!  That primary is going to be close.  There are three experienced candidates running.
Attorney General will be another race to watch, but it's simply not as important as the previous two.

Why do you not consider AG important?  In most states its the second most powerful position. 

I imagine that Gunner Delay doesn't really have much of a chance in the general... which Democrat should we be looking out for, though?

Perhaps I shold have phrased that better than I did.  AGs are very important; I was getting at the fact that the primary race, from what I've seen, won't be too close.  In comparison, it will be like like the Michigan Senate race.
Robert Herzfeld, a really nice guy, will be the one who wins in the end, I think (even though there have been no polls to confirm this [/frustration]).  He's a young guy who definitely has a bright future in Arkansas and maybe national politics.

Herzfield is a good person, and has served my own (or at least for one of my residences) county well, but by no means is he even certainly the frontrunner, much less holding a blowout lead.  This race will be a more interesting contest than you think.  Dustin McDaniels is also a very strong candidate as is Paul Suskie.

I imagine the race will be thrown to a runoff between McDaniels and Herzfield, actually.

[jokerman]

Arkansas Lt. Gubernatorial Race will be interesting.  Halter has been spending money on ads left and right with all of his money from connections across the country.  I think people distrust him, however, and he will be prevented from breaking majority.  He'll probably get in the low 40's, and face St. Sen. Tim Woolridge (A great guy who I've met) in a runoff.

Woolridge introduced a bill in the state Senate to legalize lynching again, so I've heard.  Thank goodness he's not going to win.

First, why is that a bad thing?  Second, are you going to base your entire support on such an insignificant issue?  We have much more important issue, like education, jobs and economics, and healthcare.

[jerusalemcar5]

Didn't see it posted, so I'll add:

Idaho results to be posted at 9 PM at:

http://www.idsos.state.id.us/elect/eleindex.htm

Arkansas election result site I can't find, so if someone can and wants to add it that'd be great.

[ian]

Arkansas Lt. Gubernatorial Race will be interesting.  Halter has been spending money on ads left and right with all of his money from connections across the country.  I think people distrust him, however, and he will be prevented from breaking majority.  He'll probably get in the low 40's, and face St. Sen. Tim Woolridge (A great guy who I've met) in a runoff.

Woolridge introduced a bill in the state Senate to legalize lynching again, so I've heard.  Thank goodness he's not going to win.

First, why is that a bad thing?  Second, are you going to base your entire support on such an insignificant issue?  We have much more important issue, like education, jobs and economics, and healthcare.

I don't base my support on that.  I base my support on the fact that Hathorne is going to be a big star in Arkansas politics in the future, as is Bill Halter (very Clinton-esque).  And lynching is barbaric, inhumane, and regressive; not to mention that it's closely tied to racism.

[ian]

Look out in Arkansas for the Lt. Gov. race and the Treasurer race.
I see a definite future for a couple of the Democratic Lt. Gov. candidates (Mike Hathorne and Bill Halter--yes, the guy who dropped out of the gubernatorial race).  Halter is going to stomp everyone else; really, he's the only person who can stop Jim Holt (the guy who ran against Lincoln in '04).
As far as the Treasurer race goes, this young Democrat, Mac Campbell, is going to be something special sometime in the future.  I have seen him speak a couple of times, and I am really impressed!  That primary is going to be close.  There are three experienced candidates running.
Attorney General will be another race to watch, but it's simply not as important as the previous two.

Why do you not consider AG important?  In most states its the second most powerful position. 

I imagine that Gunner Delay doesn't really have much of a chance in the general... which Democrat should we be looking out for, though?

Perhaps I shold have phrased that better than I did.  AGs are very important; I was getting at the fact that the primary race, from what I've seen, won't be too close.  In comparison, it will be like like the Michigan Senate race.
Robert Herzfeld, a really nice guy, will be the one who wins in the end, I think (even though there have been no polls to confirm this [/frustration]).  He's a young guy who definitely has a bright future in Arkansas and maybe national politics.

Herzfield is a good person, and has served my own (or at least for one of my residences) county well, but by no means is he even certainly the frontrunner, much less holding a blowout lead.  This race will be a more interesting contest than you think.  Dustin McDaniels is also a very strong candidate as is Paul Suskie.

I imagine the race will be thrown to a runoff between McDaniels and Herzfield, actually.

It was only a couple of months ago when Herzfeld was talking like his internals showed that he was destroying his opponents, and since I had no evidence otherwise, I took his word for it.  Inner-city Little Rock is crazy about him; in fact, I have only seen one McDaniels and Suskie sign each in the downtown area.  I spotted a few Suskie signs in the suburban Western portion.

[jokerman]

Arkansas Lt. Gubernatorial Race will be interesting.  Halter has been spending money on ads left and right with all of his money from connections across the country.  I think people distrust him, however, and he will be prevented from breaking majority.  He'll probably get in the low 40's, and face St. Sen. Tim Woolridge (A great guy who I've met) in a runoff.

Woolridge introduced a bill in the state Senate to legalize lynching again, so I've heard.  Thank goodness he's not going to win.

First, why is that a bad thing?  Second, are you going to base your entire support on such an insignificant issue?  We have much more important issue, like education, jobs and economics, and healthcare.

I don't base my support on that.  I base my support on the fact that Hathorne is going to be a big star in Arkansas politics in the future, as is Bill Halter (very Clinton-esque).  And lynching is barbaric, inhumane, and regressive; not to mention that it's closely tied to racism.

While I think Halter is a smart guy and in the administrative sense close to Clinton, he isn't close to Clinton in political abilities.  He doesn't have the ability to reach out to voters.  Many of the people I know, as I have said, distrust him and see him as a DC insider just using Arkansas as a spring board for his national political ambitions.  This is a guy who went off to DC after high school and hasn't returned until the last couple years or so.  This is a guy who has built a large campaign warchest out of donations from political connections across the nation.  He seems too manufactured and prefabricated.  Arkansans, in political campaigns, prefer sincerity and honesty to professionalism.

[ian]

Arkansas Lt. Gubernatorial Race will be interesting.  Halter has been spending money on ads left and right with all of his money from connections across the country.  I think people distrust him, however, and he will be prevented from breaking majority.  He'll probably get in the low 40's, and face St. Sen. Tim Woolridge (A great guy who I've met) in a runoff.

Woolridge introduced a bill in the state Senate to legalize lynching again, so I've heard.  Thank goodness he's not going to win.

First, why is that a bad thing?  Second, are you going to base your entire support on such an insignificant issue?  We have much more important issue, like education, jobs and economics, and healthcare.

I don't base my support on that.  I base my support on the fact that Hathorne is going to be a big star in Arkansas politics in the future, as is Bill Halter (very Clinton-esque).  And lynching is barbaric, inhumane, and regressive; not to mention that it's closely tied to racism.

While I think Halter is a smart guy and in the administrative sense close to Clinton, he isn't close to Clinton in political abilities.  He doesn't have the ability to reach out to voters.  Many of the people I know, as I have said, distrust him and see him as a DC insider just using Arkansas as a spring board for his national political ambitions.  This is a guy who went off to DC after high school and hasn't returned until the last couple years or so.  This is a guy who has built a large campaign warchest out of donations from political connections across the nation.  He seems too manufactured and prefabricated.  Arkansans, in political campaigns, prefer sincerity and honesty to professionalism.

While I think you are right about distrust for Halter (mainly because he dropped out of the governorship and ran for Lt. Gov. because it would be easier to win), I think you give Arkansas voters too much credit.  I didn't even know that he went to DC for college, so how many people actually know that?
And I was refering to him as Clinton-esque because he preaches like a populist but acts like a libertarian, much like both Lincoln and Pryor.  Sorry for not clarifying.
Also, since Halter is destroying in the Lt. Gov. campaign, I wouldn't say that he is generally distrusted by Arkansans.  IMHO, I think he's the only one who can take on Jim Holt!

[Flying Dog]

Arkansas results:

http://www.arelections.org/index.php?ac:show:by_contest=1&elecid=120

[jokerman]

Those are behind, here's one that's more up to date:

http://kthv.com/news/political/yourvote2006/default.aspx

Hot Damn!  Woolridge and Halter are neck and neck.  Regardless, there's virtually no chance Halter will get a majority.  He and Woolridge will be headed to a runoff.

[Flying Dog]

Lieutenant Governor - Dem Primary
Arkansas 39 of 2515 Precincts Reporting - 1.55%
Max Runoff Cands=2
   Name    Party    Votes    Pct
   Halter , Bill    Dem    4,381    33.38
   Wooldridge , Tim    Dem    4,325    32.95
   Hathorn , Mike    Dem    3,418    26.04
   Martin , Jay    Dem    1,001    7.63

 
Lieutenant Governor - GOP Primary
Arkansas 38 of 2515 Precincts Reporting - 1.51%
Max Runoff Cands=2
   Name    Party    Votes    Pct
   Holt , Jim    GOP    952    52.22
   Banks , Chuck    GOP    579    31.76
   Matayo , Doug    GOP    292    16.02


Attorney General
Attorney General - Dem Primary
Arkansas 31 of 2515 Precincts Reporting - 1.23%
Max Runoff Cands=2
   Name    Party    Votes    Pct
   McDaniel , Dustin    Dem    5,078    42.90
   Herzfeld , Robert    Dem    3,628    30.65
   Suskie , Paul    Dem    3,130    26.44

 

[jokerman]

Let's play "who gets to lose to Vic Snyder" or U.S. House District 2 Republican Primary:

Arkansas 4 of 400 Precincts Reporting - 1.00% 
 Name                 Party   Votes   Pct
 Mayberry , Andy  GOP  33  82.50 
 Formicola , Tom  GOP  7  17.50 

[Flying Dog]

hathorn is doing better than i expected

[jokerman]

Update:
Lieutenant Governor - Dem Primary  
Arkansas 181 of 2515 Precincts Reporting - 7.20%  
Max Runoff Cands=2  
 Name         Party    Votes    Pct
 Halter , Bill  Dem  12,292  35.98  
 Wooldridge , Tim  Dem  9,967  29.17  
 Hathorn , Mike  Dem  9,135  26.74  
 Martin , Jay  Dem  2,772  8.11

Attorney General - Dem Primary  
Arkansas 182 of 2515 Precincts Reporting - 7.24%  
Max Runoff Cands=2  
 Name                   Party   Votes   Pct
 McDaniel , Dustin  Dem  13,912  40.88  
 Herzfeld , Robert  Dem  11,209  32.94  
 Suskie , Paul  Dem  8,908  26.18
 


 

[Flying Dog]

hathorn is doing better than i expected

Wooldridge , Tim    Dem    10,818    27.81
   Hathorn , Mike    Dem    10,421    26.79

[jokerman]

hathorn is doing better than i expected

I knew he wasn't going to get in the low teens or even single digits like some had forcasted (I projected he'd get just under 20%) but he's well exceeded even my expectations.

[jokerman]

hathorn is doing better than i expected

Wooldridge , Tim    Dem    10,818    27.81
   Hathorn , Mike    Dem    10,421    26.79

Wow.  I wish the results were detailed by at least county, however.  Wooldridge's base of strength is in Northeast Arkansas (and rural areas in general to a degree).

[Flying Dog]

 Some of the early results that I'm seeing have to be from northeast Arkansas.

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/blog.asp?bid=1237

[Flying Dog]

its close now:

Wooldridge , Tim    Dem    13,437    26.87
   Hathorn , Mike    Dem    13,431    26.86