Biden's administration: Foreign Policy

[American2020]

The first is the Obama baseline—the worldview articulated by the Obama administration in its final years. It involves a balanced approach to China and a determination not to have US foreign policy defined by geopolitical competition, combining a desire to avoid interventions in the Middle East with a determination to fulfill America’s traditional role in the region, support for globalization and integration, and a confidence that the long arc of history favors democracy if Americans can invest in their national power and strength, and a wariness of foreign policy activism without clear strategic objectives. One group of centrists continues to broadly hold this worldview, albeit with updates for the events of the past four years—for instance, they are more focused on Russian interference and human rights abuses inside China.  I have been calling this group the restorationists.

The second group—whom I have called the 2021 Democrats—see Trump as an existential threat to American democracy and the international order. But they also believe that the world has changed in fundamental ways in the past eight years since President Xi Jinping came to power in China, Vladimir Putin returned as Russia’s president, and Obama was reelected. Nationalist populists have gained power in several countries leading to a weakening of democratic institutions and an existential crisis for centrists. Authoritarianism has used new technologies to modernize its tactics and tools of repression and control. Autocratic leaders have become more assertive and aggressive internationally as the domestic and international constraints fell away. Shared problems, such as climate change and pandemics, have worsened, but international cooperation has become harder to achieve and to explain to domestic audiences. The conviction that the world has fundamentally changed has led the 2021 Democrats to revisit the core tenets and assumptions of Democratic foreign policy in at least four areas: China, cooperation among democracies, foreign economic policy, and the Middle East.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/10/01/between-restoration-and-change/

[Bootes Void]

I think we might see a bit of left wing neoconservative foreign policy where some liberals might favour removing or isolating autocratic or right wing regimes who don't support American ideals but we'll see

[Indy Texas]

I think we might see a bit of left wing neoconservative foreign policy where some liberals might favour removing or isolating autocratic or right wing regimes who don't support American ideals but we'll see

Or maybe an appreciation for the fact that actually, America's massive military footprint can serve as a deterrent to bad behavior by other countries, and isn't merely a sinister War Machine.

If Trump hadn't spent the past four years badmouthing NATO and demanding we get troops out of Europe, do you think Putin would be assassinating opponents left and right and putting bounties on Americans' heads in Afghanistan?

[Chips]

A non interventionist foreign policy.

[Lognog]

A non interventionist foreign policy.

I really doubt that

[Chips]

A non interventionist foreign policy.

I really doubt that

Oh, I thought the question was what do you want Biden's foreign policy to be like. But Biden will probably bring troops back to NATO and slow down the process of getting troops out of the Middle East unfortunately.

[President Johnson]

One of the reasons I'm excited about a Biden presidency is that he believes in a strong transatlantic partnership. As German and strong supporter of the European Union and NATO, I believe the relationship between the European Union and the United States (as well as Canada) is absolutely key. Of course, there are some differences of opinions over some issues, and we ought to argue them civilized and with mutual respect, but this alliance is vitally important. Authoritarian regimes like China and Russia can only be contained if Europe and the USA stick together as role models for democracy. That includes Japan as major player as well. It's mainly just us who are democracies. Imperfect ones for sure, but still the best role models for the world.

[Lognog]

One of the reasons I'm excited about a Biden presidency is that he believes in a strong transatlantic partnership. As German and strong supporter of the European Union and NATO, I believe the relationship between the European Union and the United States (as well as Canada) is absolutely key. Of course, there are some differences of opinions over some issues, and we ought to argue them civilized and with mutual respect, but this alliance is vitally important. Authoritarian regimes like China and Russia can only be contained if Europe and the USA stick together as role models for democracy. That includes Japan as major player as well. It's mainly just us who are democracies. Imperfect ones for sure, but still the best role models for the world.

how's the perception of this election in Germany and the EU as a whole?

[dw93]

It'll be much tougher on Russia than the last four administrations combined, as for China the administration will get gradually more hawkish with them over the course of the term. We'll likely be in a Cold War with China by the end of the decade regardless of how this and the next election or two go. As for the Middle East, Biden will be a more retrained version of Obama. We'll set up some bases again for Strategic reasons, but I can't see Biden being a drone striker in chief either. We'll only use force there as an absolute last resort. Setting up bases in Eastern Europe again after Trump pulled (or is preparing to do so) out of there will also be part of Biden's foreign policy as well for the sake of countering Russia.

Biden will try to restore relations with our Western Allies after Trump damaged them so badly, whether he succeeds or not is up for debate.

[President Johnson]

One of the reasons I'm excited about a Biden presidency is that he believes in a strong transatlantic partnership. As German and strong supporter of the European Union and NATO, I believe the relationship between the European Union and the United States (as well as Canada) is absolutely key. Of course, there are some differences of opinions over some issues, and we ought to argue them civilized and with mutual respect, but this alliance is vitally important. Authoritarian regimes like China and Russia can only be contained if Europe and the USA stick together as role models for democracy. That includes Japan as major player as well. It's mainly just us who are democracies. Imperfect ones for sure, but still the best role models for the world.

how's the perception of this election in Germany and the EU as a whole?

Well, they did a poll few weeks ago that showed 86% of Germans would vote for Joe Biden, while just 6% for Donald Trump (the rest was undecided, or said it doesn't matter). However, people are mixed in their assumption who's going to win. My dad and my boss are convinced Trump will win, my wife and friends think Joe has this in the bag. When it comes to leading politicians, everyone actually hopes for Joe Biden to win, even the center-right parties. Remember that conservative parties in most European countries, for all their faults, are much more sane than the Republican Party. Most top-level officials like Merkel don't say it loud of course (though our current president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, when he was Foreign Minister, openly called Donald Trump a "hate preacher"). But I can tell you Berlin from center-right to Green Party is rooting for Joe Biden.

Generally, the media expensively covers the campaign and has been doing so from the start. I think they have done a relatively good job, though I wish they would dig deeper into substance. Especially with regard to Joe Biden's platform. All too often, the media narrative is Joe Biden has no vision, is basically just running to beat Trump and restore the Status-quo. But I think that's general problem with all media and not special to coverage of American (and German to a degree) politics. It's probably just me realizing it more since I have deeper knowledge of US politics.

[Frodo]

This is my worldview as well in light of recent events:

The 2021 Democrats see democracy versus authoritarianism as a fault-line in world politics. They want the United States to make democratic cooperation an organizing principle of its foreign policy, partly as a means of competing with China and partly because they believe that democracy itself is at grave risk. They want democracies to become collectively resilient, including by partially decoupling from authoritarian countries. They want to work with other free societies to promote liberal norms in the global order and to compete with China and Russia in international institutions.

The 2021 Democrats are also willing to use the China challenge, which they believe is real and daunting, to mobilize support for an ambitious economic agenda domestically and internationally. They see China as the glue that could hold a coalition for reform together, facilitating a greater role for government in reindustrializing democratic economies, particularly on high-end technology, and modernizing their infrastructure. It could also incentivize much greater economic cooperation and coordination between democracies so they can present Beijing with a united front.

[Indy Texas]

This is my worldview as well in light of recent events:

The 2021 Democrats see democracy versus authoritarianism as a fault-line in world politics. They want the United States to make democratic cooperation an organizing principle of its foreign policy, partly as a means of competing with China and partly because they believe that democracy itself is at grave risk. They want democracies to become collectively resilient, including by partially decoupling from authoritarian countries. They want to work with other free societies to promote liberal norms in the global order and to compete with China and Russia in international institutions.

The 2021 Democrats are also willing to use the China challenge, which they believe is real and daunting, to mobilize support for an ambitious economic agenda domestically and internationally. They see China as the glue that could hold a coalition for reform together, facilitating a greater role for government in reindustrializing democratic economies, particularly on high-end technology, and modernizing their infrastructure. It could also incentivize much greater economic cooperation and coordination between democracies so they can present Beijing with a united front.

My personal opinion is that there should be a doctrine of "Democratic liberalization is a one way street" and "Once a democracy, always a democracy."

Basically, once a country has held free and fair elections and a democratically accountable government is in power, any attempts by that government to roll back checks on its power or by other groups to remove that government in favor of an undemocratic one will not be tolerated and will be met with punitive sanctions and, if that fails, multilateral regime change.

[swf541]

This is my worldview as well in light of recent events:

The 2021 Democrats see democracy versus authoritarianism as a fault-line in world politics. They want the United States to make democratic cooperation an organizing principle of its foreign policy, partly as a means of competing with China and partly because they believe that democracy itself is at grave risk. They want democracies to become collectively resilient, including by partially decoupling from authoritarian countries. They want to work with other free societies to promote liberal norms in the global order and to compete with China and Russia in international institutions.

The 2021 Democrats are also willing to use the China challenge, which they believe is real and daunting, to mobilize support for an ambitious economic agenda domestically and internationally. They see China as the glue that could hold a coalition for reform together, facilitating a greater role for government in reindustrializing democratic economies, particularly on high-end technology, and modernizing their infrastructure. It could also incentivize much greater economic cooperation and coordination between democracies so they can present Beijing with a united front.

My personal opinion is that there should be a doctrine of "Democratic liberalization is a one way street" and "Once a democracy, always a democracy."

Basically, once a country has held free and fair elections and a democratically accountable government is in power, any attempts by that government to roll back checks on its power or by other groups to remove that government in favor of an undemocratic one will not be tolerated and will be met with punitive sanctions and, if that fails, multilateral regime change.

[Lognog]

This is my worldview as well in light of recent events:

The 2021 Democrats see democracy versus authoritarianism as a fault-line in world politics. They want the United States to make democratic cooperation an organizing principle of its foreign policy, partly as a means of competing with China and partly because they believe that democracy itself is at grave risk. They want democracies to become collectively resilient, including by partially decoupling from authoritarian countries. They want to work with other free societies to promote liberal norms in the global order and to compete with China and Russia in international institutions.

The 2021 Democrats are also willing to use the China challenge, which they believe is real and daunting, to mobilize support for an ambitious economic agenda domestically and internationally. They see China as the glue that could hold a coalition for reform together, facilitating a greater role for government in reindustrializing democratic economies, particularly on high-end technology, and modernizing their infrastructure. It could also incentivize much greater economic cooperation and coordination between democracies so they can present Beijing with a united front.

My personal opinion is that there should be a doctrine of "Democratic liberalization is a one way street" and "Once a democracy, always a democracy."

Basically, once a country has held free and fair elections and a democratically accountable government is in power, any attempts by that government to roll back checks on its power or by other groups to remove that government in favor of an undemocratic one will not be tolerated and will be met with punitive sanctions and, if that fails, multilateral regime change.

have you seen Hungary or Poland?

[Lognog]

This is my worldview as well in light of recent events:

The 2021 Democrats see democracy versus authoritarianism as a fault-line in world politics. They want the United States to make democratic cooperation an organizing principle of its foreign policy, partly as a means of competing with China and partly because they believe that democracy itself is at grave risk. They want democracies to become collectively resilient, including by partially decoupling from authoritarian countries. They want to work with other free societies to promote liberal norms in the global order and to compete with China and Russia in international institutions.

The 2021 Democrats are also willing to use the China challenge, which they believe is real and daunting, to mobilize support for an ambitious economic agenda domestically and internationally. They see China as the glue that could hold a coalition for reform together, facilitating a greater role for government in reindustrializing democratic economies, particularly on high-end technology, and modernizing their infrastructure. It could also incentivize much greater economic cooperation and coordination between democracies so they can present Beijing with a united front.

My personal opinion is that there should be a doctrine of "Democratic liberalization is a one way street" and "Once a democracy, always a democracy."

Basically, once a country has held free and fair elections and a democratically accountable government is in power, any attempts by that government to roll back checks on its power or by other groups to remove that government in favor of an undemocratic one will not be tolerated and will be met with punitive sanctions and, if that fails, multilateral regime change.

Belarus had a Democratic election in the 90's

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This is my worldview as well in light of recent events:

The 2021 Democrats see democracy versus authoritarianism as a fault-line in world politics. They want the United States to make democratic cooperation an organizing principle of its foreign policy, partly as a means of competing with China and partly because they believe that democracy itself is at grave risk. They want democracies to become collectively resilient, including by partially decoupling from authoritarian countries. They want to work with other free societies to promote liberal norms in the global order and to compete with China and Russia in international institutions.

The 2021 Democrats are also willing to use the China challenge, which they believe is real and daunting, to mobilize support for an ambitious economic agenda domestically and internationally. They see China as the glue that could hold a coalition for reform together, facilitating a greater role for government in reindustrializing democratic economies, particularly on high-end technology, and modernizing their infrastructure. It could also incentivize much greater economic cooperation and coordination between democracies so they can present Beijing with a united front.

My personal opinion is that there should be a doctrine of "Democratic liberalization is a one way street" and "Once a democracy, always a democracy."

Basically, once a country has held free and fair elections and a democratically accountable government is in power, any attempts by that government to roll back checks on its power or by other groups to remove that government in favor of an undemocratic one will not be tolerated and will be met with punitive sanctions and, if that fails, multilateral regime change.

The US will just use that to remove democratically elected leaders that they don't like such as Morales.

[politics_king]

Can we please stay out of other countries' business? Sick of beating the drum for conflict.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The return to a pre-2016 status quo (and not only in foreign policy) is neither possible not really desirable.

[Del Tachi]

Well, both of these sound terrible but "Restorationism" is pie-in-the-sky because it doesn't take China seriously enough.

If Trump is an existential threat to the "international order" that is Trans-Atlanticism, then good.  Old Europe is a dying continent, and the U.S. security umbrella ensures that they'll reorient around U.S. foreign policy goals.  My foreign policy objectives as U.S. President would be fully-incorporating India as an ally, cooling the Saudi-Iran conflict, a renewed focus on the Americas, and seeking more areas of for cooperation with Russia (energy, counterterrorism, and the Arctic being key areas for engagement) as a way to drive wedges between Moscow and Beijing. 

[StateBoiler]

It involves a balanced approach to China and a determination not to have US foreign policy defined by geopolitical competition

One group of centrists continues to broadly hold this worldview, albeit with updates for the events of the past four years—for instance, they are more focused on Russian interference and human rights abuses inside China.

Contradiction.

We're in the middle of Cold War 2.0 with the Chinese. Xi wants things for China which puts them in direct competition with us and the Western classical liberal internationalist view. Hong Kong set the die. That's an incredibly anti-anything Western manuever regardless of which party is in the White House. Throw on top of it the Democratic Party zeitgeist at the moment is heavily anti-Russian because that's how they can explain the 2016 election result. Our geopolitical relations with Russia will get worse in 2021 than they are now. So you may not want to be in power competition, but it's what you're going to get. The international order the 2 most recent Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama enjoyed is dead and gone and it's not coming back. Some of this is Trump's fault but China's rise to make themselves preeminent power and shape the world as they see it in their image was going to happen regardless of what Trump or Hillary Clinton if she became president did.

Brookings who published that article has in the runup to Hong Kong disappearing as far as being a pseudo-sovereign entity and afteward has on their Lawfare podcast really ramped up talking about China, mostly in a negative fashion. Seems the D.C. liberal intelligentsia have made that decision.

[StateBoiler]

I think we might see a bit of left wing neoconservative foreign policy where some liberals might favour removing or isolating autocratic or right wing regimes who don't support American ideals but we'll see

Or maybe an appreciation for the fact that actually, America's massive military footprint can serve as a deterrent to bad behavior by other countries, and isn't merely a sinister War Machine.

Samantha Power, is that you?