Nicholas Whyte, author of the awesome
Northern Ireland Elections web site, e-mailed me Thursday letting me know that a new report of the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland had been published on Northern Ireland's 18 parliamentary constituencies. The e-mail contained a link to
an entry on his blog detailing, analyzing and at times criticizing the new proposed boundary changes. The
official announcement (in PDF format) of the revised recomendations, which contains explanations of the lead commissioner's decisions,
maps of the current and (revised) proposed contituencies, and other information is available at the
Boundary Commission's web site. The recommendations include splitting one ward between parliamentary constituencies, which is seemingly verbotten in England but not, at least as the Boudary Commission sees it, in Northern Ireland. To compare with the initial recommendations of the Boundary Commission, you can view those either at
this page of the Boundary Commission's web site or at
this page on Nicholas Whyte's web site which contains Whyte's commentary on those initial recommendations.
Here are the wards proposed to switch from one parliamentary constituency to another under both the initial and revised reccomendations (no ward was proposed to switch from one constituency to another under the initial recommendations and a third contituency under the revised recommendations):
From Strangford to East Belfast (technically Belfast East, but whatever): Castlereagh LGD wards of Ballyhanwood, Carrowreagh, Dundonald, Enler and Graham’s Bridge.
From South Antrim to North Belfast: the Newtownabbey LGD wards of Collinbridge, Glebe and Glengormley. See below for additional North Belfast gains from South Antrim.
From East Antrim to North Belfast: the Newtownabbey LGD ward of Cloughfern.
From Strangford to South Belfast: the Castlereagh LGD wards of Carryduff East and Carryduff West.
From East Belfast to South Belfast: the Castlereagh LGD ward of Wynchurch (but not Cregagh, the Hillfoot ward being moved instead - see below).
From Lagan Valley to West Belfast: the Lisburn LGD ward of Dunmurry and that part of the Lisburn LGD ward of Derryaghy north of the Lagmore and Derryaghy townland boundary including the Lagmore estate (and some urbanized area that might be part of the Twinbrook neighborhood based on the Greater Belfast area map of the revised boundary proposals).
From South Down to Strangford: the Down LGD wards of Ballymaglave, Ballynahinch East and Kilmore (but not Crossgar, Drumaness and Dunmore - see below).
From North Antrim to East Antrim (which would keep its name rather than be renamed "Antrim Coast and Glens" county constituency): the Moyle LGD wards of Glenaan, Glenariff, and Glendun (but not Bonamargy and Rathlin, Dalriada, Glenshesk, Glentaisie and Knocklayd - see below; in other words, not Ballycastle and the northernmost of the Glens of Antrim).
From Foyle to East Londonderry: the Derry LGD wards of Banagher and Claudy.
Here are the additional wards proposed by the Boundary Commission for the first time to switch from one constituency to another under their revised recommendations (the new changes):
From South Antrim to North Belfast: the Newtownabbey LGD wards of Ballyhenry and Hightown (just west of Glengormley ward and perhaps considered part of Glengormley; then again, so might be Burthill ward, which would remain in South Antrim).
From East Belfast to South Belfast: the Castlereagh LGD ward of Hillfoot (instead of Cregagh).
From Lagan Valley to South Antrim: the Lisburn LGD ward of Glenavy. (The only shift of territory from one constituency to another under the revised recommendations that wasn't either part of the provisional recommendations, an expansion thereof like in North Belfast's gains in Newtownabbey, or a "swap" therefrom like South Belfast gaining a different ward from East Belfast.)
Here are the wards which were proposed to switch from one constituency to another under the Boundary Commission's initial recommendations but which are proposed to remain in their current constituency under the Commission's revised recommendations (instances of the Commission backtracking, if only slightly in some cases):
Proposed to remain in East Belfast rather than switch to South Belfast: the Castlereagh LGD ward of Cregagh (which the DUP didn't want East Belfast to lose, presumably for Assembly considerations as Peter Robinson seems safe).
Proposed to remain in Lagan Valley rather than switch to West Belfast: the Lisburn LGD ward of Seymour Hill and that part of the Lisburn LGD ward of Derryaghy south of the Lagmore and Derryaghy townland boundary including the Milltown and Conway estates (and Derryaghy Village, based on the Greater Belfast area map of the revised boundary proposals).
Proposed to remain in South Down rather than switch to Strangford: the Down LGD wards of Crossgar, Drumaness and Dunmore.
Proposed to remain in Newry and Armagh (which would be unchanged under the revised recommendations) rather than switch to South Down: the Newry and Mourne LGD wards of St Mary’s, St Patrick’s and Windsor Hill (the part of Newry town that was in South Down before 1983).
Proposed to remain in Upper Bann (which would be unchanged under the revised recommendations) rather than switch to South Down: the Banbridge LGD ward of Loughbrickland.
Proposed to remain in Upper Bann rather than switch to Lagan Valley: Craigavon LGD ward of Aghagallon (which would have been the only part of Craigavon LGD not in Upper Bann under the provisional recommendations).
Proposed to remain in North Antrim rather than switch to East Antrim, or rather a renamed "Antrim Coast and Glens" county constituency: the Moyle LGD wards of Bonamargy and Rathlin, Dalriada, Glenshesk, Glentaisie and Knocklayd (in other words, Ballycastle, or whatever portion thereof was initially proposed to be taken from North Antrim, and the northernmost of the Glens of Antrim, the rest of which is still proposed to be transferred to East Antrim).
Constituencies remaining unchanged under both the initial/provisional and revised recommendations: Fermanagh and South Tyrone CC, Mid Ulster CC, North Down CC, and West Tyrone CC.
I asked Whyte on his blog whether he thought further changes to the recommendations were likely, and he said based on his admittedly limited experience that there will probably not be. The Boundary Commission's official announcement contains the following note under "Notes for Editors": "3. Publication of the Revised Recommendations is one of the last stages in the process of preparing the Commission’s Report to the Secretary of State. Taking into account further representations which may be received and any other relevant information, the Commission will decide whether to hold further public Local Inquiries but there is no statutory obligation on the Commission to do so."
[Edited a few times to complete the entry after a save midway through and a couple edits, including adding the new proposed shift of the Lisburn LGD ward of Glenavy from Lagan Valley to South Antrim.]
