MO - MO Scout/Remington: Trump+5

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/KCMikeMahoney/status/1312389221047513090

Trump 51
Biden 46

9/30-10/1, 980 LV

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, MO will be quite close.

The primary results, which saw much higher DEM enthusiasm compared to the Rs relative to 2016 primary results, have already shown it.

[Pollster]

Excellent news for Jill Schupp

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Missouri President by Remington Research Group on 2020-10-01

Summary: D: 46%, R: 51%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Devils30]

This one is as bad as anything for Trump, if MO is only 5 then Biden wins Iowa.

[pantsaregood]

Good for Trump.

[DrScholl]

Pretty much how the 2018 Senate race turned out.

[Rand]

Joe Biden about to step off the train in St Louis.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I wonder if any counties outside of the same 4 will vote Democrat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MO isn't voting D for Gov

[Horus]

I wonder if any counties outside of the same 4 will vote Democrat.

Maybe the two counties directly north of KC by the airport

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://moscout.com/s/MOSCOUT-Statewide-General-Election-Survey-Deck-100220.pptx

Changes with September 16-17 poll

Trump 51% (-2)
Biden 46% (+1)
Undecided 3% (+1)

[Sbane]

This is such a horrible poll for Trump. Absolutely devastating.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder if any counties outside of the same 4 will vote Democrat.

Maybe the two counties directly north of KC by the airport

St. Charles County would probably flip on this type of result, too, even though it wouldn't on a uniform swing.

Platte and Clay Counties would have to flip for this result to happen. Platte even trended Democrat in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

(R)emington so it’s actually Biden +1 /s

Republicans tend to underpoll in this state, but people forget that Claire McCaskill had a -12 (43/55) favorability rating on election day and wasn’t exactly a "strong" or popular incumbent (in fact, she was the most unpopular Senator up for reelection that year), so it’s not that unreasonable to expect Biden to do about as well as her (or a little worse) in an environment even more favorable to Democrats than 2018. I do expect the state to vote a few points to the left of IN this year, and there’s going to be some pretty sizable swings in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas while Biden likely outperforms Clinton in many of the state's rural/small-town areas (especially in the Northeast and Southeast) where Democrats hit rock bottom in 2016. That MO poster expressed it nicely when he said that the rurals in this state completed their alignment before the Democratic countertrends could thoroughly set in and progress.

[Buzz]

Reminds me a lot of when they had Trump only beating Clinton by 5 in October of 2016.

[NOVA Green]

Anyway you look at it, difficult to un-skew the polls in any shape where Trump #s were 55% in '16, 3rd Party voters went elsewhere.... AND Trump at max is at 52% in '20.

No idea what a before and after Biden local Media Coverage from today will play in the next poll of MO...

Still suspect that these top-line numbers might be where we are at after all of the voters are counted....

[cvparty]

Reminds me a lot of when they had Trump only beating Clinton by 5 in October of 2016.

just saying, trump was up 47-42 in 2016, while it’s 51-46 now with an incredibly stable race so far

[Gass3268]

Reminds me a lot of when they had Trump only beating Clinton by 5 in October of 2016.

You mean right after Trump admitted to being a chronic sexual assailant and Republicans across the country were panicking? 

[Buzz]

Reminds me a lot of when they had Trump only beating Clinton by 5 in October of 2016.

You mean right after Trump admitted to being a chronic sexual assailant and Republicans across the country were panicking? 

yes.  Similar results after terrible weeks for him.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I wonder if any counties outside of the same 4 will vote Democrat.

Clay and Platte seem like the only possibilities and those look like stretches.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Galloway and Biden aren't winning MO, next, D's aren't sweeping everything

[Hope For A New Era]

I wonder if any counties outside of the same 4 will vote Democrat.

Clay and Platte seem like the only possibilities and those look like stretches.

If this poll is accurate - which I still doubt, but let’s just say for the sake of argument that it is - then Clay is not at all a stretch. McCaskill won it in 2018 while losing the state by 6, and Biden will probably be even stronger in suburbs and weaker in rurals than she was. She came very close in Platte as well. The real stretch in this part of the state is Buchanan. Obama barely won it in 2008, so we’ll see if Biden can do it too.

Greene County is the place I’ll be watching on November 3. McCaskill lost it by 14 while on the same night Galloway won it by 5. It could go pretty dramatically either way, I think - but if it shifts hard toward Biden, that could be an explanation for the polls we’ve been seeing.

St. Charles County is not a likely flip in my opinion. It’s a lot less Republican than it used to be, but it’s also a very inelastic county. Galloway needed a six-point statewide win to win the county by less than 100 votes. I just don’t think two years is enough time for it to shift the rest of the way. I’d love to be proven wrong, but I just don’t see it this year.

All that’s left after that are the surprise Galloway counties from 2018. Cole is a mystery to me - it exhibited voting patterns in 2018 that it has never shown any hint of before. Howard and Callaway were almost certainly flukes. Ste. Genevieve is an ancestrally Democratic county that is probably too far gone to vote D at the presidential level anymore (though, if any Democrat can win it, it’s Biden).

So...somewhere between 4 and 8 counties, most likely.

[NOVA Green]

I wonder if any counties outside of the same 4 will vote Democrat.

Clay and Platte seem like the only possibilities and those look like stretches.

If this poll is accurate - which I still doubt, but let’s just say for the sake of argument that it is - then Clay is not at all a stretch. McCaskill won it in 2018 while losing the state by 6, and Biden will probably be even stronger in suburbs and weaker in rurals than she was. She came very close in Platte as well. The real stretch in this part of the state is Buchanan. Obama barely won it in 2008, so we’ll see if Biden can do it too.

Greene County is the place I’ll be watching on November 3. McCaskill lost it by 14 while on the same night Galloway won it by 5. It could go pretty dramatically either way, I think - but if it shifts hard toward Biden, that could be an explanation for the polls we’ve been seeing.

St. Charles County is not a likely flip in my opinion. It’s a lot less Republican than it used to be, but it’s also a very inelastic county. Galloway needed a six-point statewide win to win the county by less than 100 votes. I just don’t think two years is enough time for it to shift the rest of the way. I’d love to be proven wrong, but I just don’t see it this year.

All that’s left after that are the surprise Galloway counties from 2018. Cole is a mystery to me - it exhibited voting patterns in 2018 that it has never shown any hint of before. Howard and Callaway were almost certainly flukes. Ste. Genevieve is an ancestrally Democratic county that is probably too far gone to vote D at the presidential level anymore (though, if any Democrat can win it, it’s Biden).

So...somewhere between 4 and 8 counties, most likely.

So Clay & Platte are theoretical flips and Greene County is on your watch-list, and possibly a few random rurals?

[Xing]

I doubt it’ll be this close, but if Trump is losing significant ground in Missouri of all places, he’s not winning the Midwestern states he needs to win the election.