Oakland County, Michigan - Biden +28 (Dem Internal) or Biden +17 (GOP Internal)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 10:18:45 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Oakland County, Michigan - Biden +28 (Dem Internal) or Biden +17 (GOP Internal)		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Oakland County, Michigan - Biden +28 (Dem Internal) or Biden +17 (GOP Internal)  (Read 4567 times)
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,532
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 01:27:15 PM »


Clinton won here by 9.
Logged
pantsaregood
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 457
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2020, 01:30:22 PM »
Good for Trump.
Logged
It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,009


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2020, 01:35:42 PM »
This is a NUT poll.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2020, 01:36:32 PM »
Oakland should be ca. Biden+21 using the latest trends, if Biden wins by 10 statewide.
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2020, 01:38:40 PM »
Damn!

My keyboard is sticky now
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,401
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2020, 01:44:42 PM »

Huh.  So is mine...
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2020, 01:44:48 PM »
Someone check on SN, I'm worried about him.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,990
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2020, 02:01:11 PM »
Either one will finish Trump in Michigan.
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 442


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2020, 02:37:59 PM »
OOOOOOOHHHHHHHHH YEEEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2020, 02:46:20 PM »
I may make the call to move Michigan to Likely Biden on my next map. There are just too many signs pointing to near insurmountable hurdles for Trump there, and the fact that he is that far behind in a county he desperately needs to keep closer *even in Republican polling* just adds to it.

Edit: No, you did not see me accidentally say "Likely Trump" initially, I have no idea what you are talking about. I would never make a mistake that dumb.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,283
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2020, 03:00:52 PM »
MI will be to Trump what Spencer County, IN was to Obama in 2012. Uncle Joe was never going to lose Michigan anyway, so I wouldn’t extrapolate this to Democratic gains in WOW (where Trump should hit Walker 2018 levels of support) and Chester/Delaware/Montgomery PA, which will at best trend only very slightly to Biden.

Michigan will be an absolute bloodbath for Republicans this cycle, and it’s not because of the national environment and because Democrats will win the PV for President and House by 8-10 points, it’s because MI was a fluke in 2016. Trump hasn’t done anything for this state; he’s damaged the populist brand forever and a traditional Republican cannot win here. Hot take: Whitmer is less likely to lose than Reynolds in 2022.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2020, 03:04:50 PM »
Wow, this is a county Hillary and Obama 2012 only won by 8. If this is even remotely true Michigan is not recoverable for Trump.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,942


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2020, 03:34:09 PM »
The GOP internal is basically Whitmer’s margin in 2018, and she won by about 9 points. If the Dem internal is right, he’s probably up double digits.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,450
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2020, 05:50:45 PM »
Even we look at just the Republican internal number, this pretty much is game over in MI.

Honestly, with numbers like these in Oakland County, it really makes wonder if Macomb might flip back over as well...

Obama '08 was 56-42 in Oakland and 53-45 in Macomb...

The divergence between Oakland and Macomb really didn't happen "Big League" or "Bigley" until '16....
Logged
Bojack Horseman
Wolverine22
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,374
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2020, 06:04:40 PM »
Where's SN when you need him?
Logged
Splash
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,044
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2020, 06:08:00 PM »
This isn't that surprising. If you look at the 2018 map for the MI AG race, Dana Nessel would have lost convincingly if not the lightening fast transition of Oakland County from purple hue to deep, deep blue.

I'd be interested to see what's happening in neighboring Livingston County. Trump is going to win it obviously but I can see the margin being less than fifteen points. Whitmer lost it by seventeen points, I think, but this is a county that is also trending blue at a pretty rapid pace.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,450
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2020, 06:41:08 PM »
Quote from: Splash on October 02, 2020, 06:08:00 PM
This isn't that surprising. If you look at the 2018 map for the MI AG race, Dana Nessel would have lost convincingly if not the lightening fast transition of Oakland County from purple hue to deep, deep blue.

I'd be interested to see what's happening in neighboring Livingston County. Trump is going to win it obviously but I can see the margin being less than fifteen points. Whitmer lost it by seventeen points, I think, but this is a county that is also trending blue at a pretty rapid pace.

Livingston County is also the wealthiest in the state (MHI ~ $76.8k) and 44% > HS Diploma...

Population age bulge is 40> 66, so fewer younger voters than MI on average...

Thanks for the updates on Livingston County.... haven't look at it in awhile and honestly barely even remember driving through it on my way to Ann Arbor back in the late '80s / early '90s, but I knew it was a pretty solidly Republican part of the State even way back then....

Midwest swings should be very interesting at County / City levels in 2020 with the various shifting political coalitions over the past few election cycles...
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2020, 06:47:36 PM »

Covid bump!
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2020, 06:53:14 PM »
Quote from: Indiana Redux Bot on October 02, 2020, 03:00:52 PM
MI will be to Trump what Spencer County, IN was to Obama in 2012. Uncle Joe was never going to lose Michigan anyway, so I wouldn’t extrapolate this to Democratic gains in WOW (where Trump should hit Walker 2018 levels of support) and Chester/Delaware/Montgomery PA, which will at best trend only very slightly to Biden.

Michigan will be an absolute bloodbath for Republicans this cycle, and it’s not because of the national environment and because Democrats will win the PV for President and House by 8-10 points, it’s because MI was a fluke in 2016. Trump hasn’t done anything for this state; he’s damaged the populist brand forever and a traditional Republican cannot win here. Hot take: Whitmer is less likely to lose than Reynolds in 2022.

Ted Cruz would have easily lost Michigan in 2016. Michigan in 2016 was a one time fluke as they took a gamble as Trump ran as a populist, but governed as a plutocrat. Michigan hates movement conservatives like Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Trump, because he has governed as a 3rd Bush term.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,784


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2020, 07:54:56 PM »
Another GOP internal, with some other interesting info:



It seems, at the least, that Trump's Macomb support hasn't evaporated, even if he isn't at 60%. Bodes well for other WWC areas.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2020, 07:57:11 PM »
Great for Biden. This his awesome.
Logged
MidwestPollster
Rookie
**
Posts: 99
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2020, 08:29:14 PM »
Goya bump
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,450
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2020, 09:00:40 PM »
Quote from: Dr. RI, Trustbuster on October 02, 2020, 07:54:56 PM
Another GOP internal, with some other interesting info:



It seems, at the least, that Trump's Macomb support hasn't evaporated, even if he isn't at 60%. Bodes well for other WWC areas.

Interesting....

Still--- a PUB Internal should be treated with the same skepticism as a DEM internal...

Trump got 54% in Macomb in '16 and 58% in Monroe County...

Both Macomb and Monroe PUB internals look sketch, without further confirmation....

thx RI for posting.... and I know you are a solid poster.

What is your opinion about Sterling Heights in 2020?
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2020, 12:35:10 AM »

Ok, Sorry pqg, but that's kind of hot.

I will gladly show myself into horny jail now.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2020, 01:11:41 AM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on October 02, 2020, 09:00:40 PM
Quote from: Dr. RI, Trustbuster on October 02, 2020, 07:54:56 PM
Another GOP internal, with some other interesting info:



It seems, at the least, that Trump's Macomb support hasn't evaporated, even if he isn't at 60%. Bodes well for other WWC areas.

Interesting....

Still--- a PUB Internal should be treated with the same skepticism as a DEM internal...

Trump got 54% in Macomb in '16 and 58% in Monroe County...

Both Macomb and Monroe PUB internals look sketch, without further confirmation....

thx RI for posting.... and I know you are a solid poster.

What is your opinion about Sterling Heights in 2020?



Not that it will make a huge difference, but FYI Sterling Heights Republican mayor has endorsed Biden.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 12 queries.