Redfield & Wilton: Biden +3 in AZ, +5 in FL, +9 in MI, +2 in NC, +6 in PA, +5 in WI
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  Redfield & Wilton: Biden +3 in AZ, +5 in FL, +9 in MI, +2 in NC, +6 in PA, +5 in WI
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Author Topic: Redfield & Wilton: Biden +3 in AZ, +5 in FL, +9 in MI, +2 in NC, +6 in PA, +5 in WI  (Read 1366 times)
Roll Roons
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« on: October 02, 2020, 12:49:58 PM »

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-23-27-september/

Polls were conducted pre-debate.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2020, 12:50:54 PM »

wait till trumpís rona bump
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2020, 12:51:20 PM »

Everybody's still battling it out over at the IBD poll, Roons.  

It's gonna be just you, Bagel and me for a bit.  
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2020, 12:51:59 PM »

Clearly Biden is doomed. Drink your Kool-Aid and say goodnight, because all is lost.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2020, 12:52:37 PM »

These numbers "feel" about right to me. The MI>PA>WI order for Rust Belt Biden support definitely seems more believable than the WI>MI>PA order we're seeing in some other polls.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2020, 12:53:24 PM »

Movement since last poll:

AZ: Trump+2 (consistent with tightening in other polls)
FL: Biden +2 (DeSantis free-for-all reopening backlash?)
MI: Trump+1
NC: No change
PA: Biden+1
WI: Trump+1
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2020, 12:54:04 PM »

Biden is doomed
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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2020, 12:54:20 PM »

All polls before the debate and COVID test are outdated.
We need new polls.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2020, 12:54:37 PM »

There still may be justice for the way the Democrats treated Trump. This will be their reward for their bogus Russian collusion charge and investigation and a bogus impeachment.  They will reap what they sowed.
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VAR
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2020, 12:54:44 PM »

AZ
Biden 47
Trump 44 (+2)
Jorgensen 1
Hawkins 1 (+1)

FL
Biden 48 (+1)
Trump 43 (-1)
Jorgensen 1
Hawkins 1

MI
Biden 51 (+2)
Trump 42 (+3)
Jorgensen 1 (-1)
Hawkins 0 (-1)

NC
Biden 47
Trump 45
Jorgensen 2 (+1)
Hawkins 0 (-1)

PA
Biden 50 (+1)
Trump 44
Jorgensen 0 (-1)
Hawkins 0 (-1)

WI
Biden 48 (+1)
Trump 43 (+2)
Jorgensen 2 (+1)
Hawkins 0 (-1)

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-16-september/
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YE
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2020, 12:57:42 PM »

Movement since last poll:

AZ: Trump+2 (consistent with tightening in other polls)
FL: Biden +2 (DeSantis free-for-all reopening backlash?)
MI: Trump+1
NC: No change
PA: Biden+1
WI: Trump+1


Itís called statistical noise. These polls have shown no real movement all summer and fall at least from this pollster in particular.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2020, 12:59:36 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2020, 01:30:54 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

I'm not going to post or endorse trends as this is a Registered Voters sample, not a Likely Voters one as previous R&W surveys have been in these states.

AZ
September 23-26
871
MoE: 3.32%
Changes with September 12-16

Biden 47% (n/c)
Trump 44% (+2)
Another Third Party/Write-in 1% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (+1)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Don't know 6% (-2)

FL
September 23-25
1073
MoE: 2.99%
Changes with September 12-14

Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 43% (-1)
Another Third Party/Write-in 1% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Don't know 7% (+1)

MI
September 23-26
785
MoE: 3.5%
Changes with September 12-14

Biden 51% (+2)
Trump 42% (+3)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Another Third Party/Write-in 0% (n/c)
Hawkins 0% (-1)
Don't know 6% (-3)

NC
September 23-26
1097
MoE: 2.96%
Changes with September 12-15

Biden 47% (n/c)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (+2)
Another Third Party/Write-in 1% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (-1)
Don't know 6% (+1)

PA
September 23-25
1015
MoE: 3.08%
Changes with September 12-14

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 44% (n/c)
Another Third Party/Write-in 1% (+1)
Jorgensen 0% (-1)
Don't know 5% (n/c)

Hawkins previously at 1%

WI
September 23-27
663
MoE: 3.81%
Changes with September 12-16

Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 43% (+2)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Another Third Party/Write-in 0% (-1)
Don't know 7% (-3)

Hawkins previously at 1%

Edit: these are LV samples after all, it turns out.
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xavier110
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2020, 01:30:38 PM »

Hawkins isn't even on the ballot in AZ lol
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2020, 01:31:00 PM »

538 are now treating these as likely voter samples after all, so I've added trends.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2020, 01:31:08 PM »

Hawkins isn't even on the ballot in AZ lol

Or Wisconsin.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2020, 02:55:17 PM »


Which is why he isnít in their latest WI poll
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2020, 03:47:08 PM »

I'll take them.
Not bad.
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