AZ - Suffolk University: Biden +4

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1311997316761518080?s=21

[VAR]

Words have consequences.

Lol Biden has always been leading in Arizona

Senate numbers?

[Gass3268]

Words have consequences.

Lol Biden has always been leading in Arizona

Senate numbers?

Kelly +9

[Buzz]

Seems spot on IMO.  Biden will probably win by 2-3 on election night.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 26-30, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

[VAR]

Trump approval: 42/54 (-12)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 40/53 (-13)
Biden: 53/42 (+11)
Pence: 42/44 (-2)
Harris: 45/40 (+5)
Ducey: 35/42 (-7)
McSally: 38/51 (-13)
Kelly: 50/35 (+15)
Democratic Party: 46/43 (+3)
GOP: 42/45 (-3)

West/North (n=84): Trump 51-48 (+3)
Maricopa (n=299): Biden 53-44 (+9)
Southeast (n=117): Trump 49-45 (+4)

Sample (2016 vote): Trump 45-44-5

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release:
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/10_2_2020_tables_pdftxt.pdf

Refused 1%

[GeneralMacArthur]

Trump approval: 42/54 (-12)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 40/53 (-13)
Biden: 53/42 (+11)
Pence: 42/44 (-2)
Harris: 45/40 (+5)
Ducey: 35/42 (-7)
McSally: 38/51 (-13)
Kelly: 50/35 (+15)
Democratic Party: 46/43 (+3)
GOP: 42/45 (-3)

West/North (n=84): Trump 51-48 (+3)
Maricopa (n=299): Biden 53-44 (+9)
Southeast (n=117): Trump 49-45 (+4)

Sample (2016 vote): Trump 45-44-5

I don't understand how Biden can only be leading by 4 with such a favorable sample.

[woodley park]

Biden at 50%! What's that SirWoodbury quote? "Ah yes, this development pleases me"? Something like that.

[wbrocks67]

Trump approval: 42/54 (-12)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 40/53 (-13)
Biden: 53/42 (+11)
Pence: 42/44 (-2)
Harris: 45/40 (+5)
Ducey: 35/42 (-7)
McSally: 38/51 (-13)
Kelly: 50/35 (+15)
Democratic Party: 46/43 (+3)
GOP: 42/45 (-3)

West/North (n=84): Trump 51-48 (+3)
Maricopa (n=299): Biden 53-44 (+9)
Southeast (n=117): Trump 49-45 (+4)

Sample (2016 vote): Trump 45-44-5

I don't understand how Biden can only be leading by 4 with such a favorable sample.

It's not that favorable, Trump won by 3.5, so a Trump +1 sample is not too far off. Not to mention again, with most polls underselling Latinos for Ds, this could be a low bar.

The fact that Biden has a +11 favorability says it all. This poll lines up with the average right now though, about Biden +4. A 7.5 swing from 2016 sounds about right.

EDIT: this has Biden and Trump tied among 18-34 year olds and Biden only up 15 with minorities, so it's definitely underselling him by a considerable amount.

[ProudModerate2]

Wish it was slightly higher (for cushion), but it wouldn't doubt if this is close to the final results after the election.

[Fusternino]

Trump approval: 42/54 (-12)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 40/53 (-13)
Biden: 53/42 (+11)
Pence: 42/44 (-2)
Harris: 45/40 (+5)
Ducey: 35/42 (-7)
McSally: 38/51 (-13)
Kelly: 50/35 (+15)
Democratic Party: 46/43 (+3)
GOP: 42/45 (-3)

West/North (n=84): Trump 51-48 (+3)
Maricopa (n=299): Biden 53-44 (+9)
Southeast (n=117): Trump 49-45 (+4)

Sample (2016 vote): Trump 45-44-5

I don't understand how Biden can only be leading by 4 with such a favorable sample.

It's not that favorable, Trump won by 3.5, so a Trump +1 sample is not too far off. Not to mention again, with most polls underselling Latinos for Ds, this could be a low bar.

The fact that Biden has a +11 favorability says it all. This poll lines up with the average right now though, about Biden +4. A 7.5 swing from 2016 sounds about right.

EDIT: this has Biden and Trump tied among 18-34 year olds and Biden only up 15 with minorities, so it's definitely underselling him by a considerable amount.

Don't about 10% of people lie or "don't remember" their last vote anyways? That's why G.E.M. says he doesn't use it for weighing.