New York (Siena): Biden +32
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 13, 2024, 04:16:16 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  New York (Siena): Biden +32
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: New York (Siena): Biden +32  (Read 2326 times)
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,006


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 05:45:05 AM »

Biden 61
Trump 29

Biden fav is 62/33 and Trump fav is 29/66

https://scri.siena.edu/2020/10/02/biden-opens-wide-29-point-lead-over-trump-in-ny/
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2020, 05:53:38 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2020, 06:08:02 AM by Young Latino male Clinton-O’Rourke-Fletcher voter for TRUMP »

NYC (n=171): Biden 74-14 (+60)
Suburbs (n=136): Biden 50-36 (+14)
Upstate (n=197): Biden 57-37 (+20)

Blacks (n=60): Biden 85-4 (+81)
Latinos (n=55): Biden 72-14 (+58)
Catholics (n=161): Biden 50-43 (+7)
Jewish (n=45): Biden 74-24 (+50)

27% of Republicans are voting for Biden.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,774


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2020, 05:55:01 AM »

10% ahead of Clinton's 2016 margin.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,752
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2020, 05:56:39 AM »


Good news for Brindisi and Delgado.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,775


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2020, 06:17:54 AM »

September 27-29
504 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Brock Pierce (I) 2%
Hawkins 1%
Jorgensen 0%
Someone else 0%
Won't vote for president 0%
Don't know/no opinion 7%
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,580
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2020, 07:13:03 AM »

September 27-29
504 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Brock Pierce (I) 2%
Hawkins 1%
Jorgensen 0%
Someone else 0%
Won't vote for president 0%
Don't know/no opinion 7%

Who the heck is Brock Pierce.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,775


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2020, 07:33:42 AM »

September 27-29
504 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Brock Pierce (I) 2%
Hawkins 1%
Jorgensen 0%
Someone else 0%
Won't vote for president 0%
Don't know/no opinion 7%

Who the heck is Brock Pierce.

Director of the Bitcoin Foundation; he has better ballot access than Kanye West.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2020, 07:40:41 AM »

Trump should be doing better in Long Island, Orange, Suffern...that's his white FDNY/NYPD cop base is, it should be at least tied
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,864


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2020, 08:07:45 AM »

Biden is not leading by 20 points in upstate. Even Obama '08 only won by 6 points there. With a sample size of 197 it's a worthless metric.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2020, 08:23:30 AM »

Biden is not leading by 20 points in upstate. Even Obama '08 only won by 6 points there. With a sample size of 197 it's a worthless metric.
He is not leading in the suburbs by 14 points either. The white NYPD cops hate Biden and Harris there. More like 7 points
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2020, 08:31:05 AM »

Biden is not leading by 20 points in upstate. Even Obama '08 only won by 6 points there. With a sample size of 197 it's a worthless metric.
He is not leading in the suburbs by 14 points either. The white NYPD cops hate Biden and Harris there. More like 7 points

You really think cops control how the suburbs vote lol? There may be certain neighborhoods they might change the result in, but overall there won't be too much of an effect. Not to mention they likely voted heavily for Trump in 2016 to begin with.

Those upstate numbers in this poll are incredible. Shows a very tough race for Trump across the upper midwest.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2020, 08:38:53 AM »

Biden is not leading by 20 points in upstate. Even Obama '08 only won by 6 points there. With a sample size of 197 it's a worthless metric.
He is not leading in the suburbs by 14 points either. The white NYPD cops hate Biden and Harris there. More like 7 points

You really think cops control how the suburbs vote lol? There may be certain neighborhoods they might change the result in, but overall there won't be too much of an effect. Not to mention they likely voted heavily for Trump in 2016 to begin with.

Those upstate numbers in this poll are incredible. Shows a very tough race for Trump across the upper midwest.
Yes, because the GOP is coordinating with police unions in Rockland, Nassau etc.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,447
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2020, 08:49:30 AM »

Biden is doing almost as well as he did in the Democratic primary here while running against a bunch of people who had dropped out well beforehand.
Logged
slothdem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 531


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2020, 10:01:18 AM »

Trump should be doing better in Long Island, Orange, Suffern...that's his white FDNY/NYPD cop base is, it should be at least tied

Assuming "the suburbs" are Nassau/Suffolk/Westchester/Rockland then Clinton won this group by 8%. Given the trend of educated voters going especially hard for Biden (and even Suffolk is better educated than the nation as a whole) you'd absolutely expect a swing of about six points.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2020, 10:04:03 AM »

NYC (n=171): Biden 74-14 (+60)
Suburbs (n=136): Biden 50-36 (+14)
Upstate (n=197): Biden 57-37 (+20)

Blacks (n=60): Biden 85-4 (+81)
Latinos (n=55): Biden 72-14 (+58)
Catholics (n=161): Biden 50-43 (+7)
Jewish (n=45): Biden 74-24 (+50)

27% of Republicans are voting for Biden.

Those upstate NY numbers should be sounding off alarms to Republicans. They're not usually more than a point off of how Wisconsin would vote.
Logged
redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,685


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2020, 10:07:35 AM »

I remember when red avatars here believed that police unions endorsing Trump would mean Biden performing worse than HRC in 2016.
Logged
kireev
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 294


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2020, 10:12:32 AM »

Again, Biden is really strong among whites winning them by 20%.  Even Obama won them by 6 points only in 2008.
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2020, 10:15:56 AM »

I remember when red avatars here believed that police unions endorsing Trump would mean Biden performing worse than HRC in 2016.

It may cost Democrats some seats in the State Legislature (Nassau, Rockland, etc)

But Democrats will continue their trifecta
Logged
Duke of York
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,930


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2020, 10:33:09 AM »

I remember when red avatars here believed that police unions endorsing Trump would mean Biden performing worse than HRC in 2016.

It may cost Democrats some seats in the State Legislature (Nassau, Rockland, etc)

But Democrats will continue their trifecta
I think they might lose one or two seats but also gain a few. Its not out of the realm of possibility they get a two thirds majority in the state senate. They only need two more.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2020, 12:46:22 PM »

I think Biden can easily win Upstate (it's more Democratic than people think, and it's similar to ME-2, PA, MI, and WI) but 20 points is not happening.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2020, 07:02:08 PM »

Biden is not leading by 20 points in upstate. Even Obama '08 only won by 6 points there. With a sample size of 197 it's a worthless metric.
He is not leading in the suburbs by 14 points either. The white NYPD cops hate Biden and Harris there. More like 7 points

You really think cops control how the suburbs vote lol? There may be certain neighborhoods they might change the result in, but overall there won't be too much of an effect. Not to mention they likely voted heavily for Trump in 2016 to begin with.

Those upstate numbers in this poll are incredible. Shows a very tough race for Trump across the upper midwest.
Yes, because the GOP is coordinating with police unions in Rockland, Nassau etc.

You do understand most people in Rockland, Nassau, etc. are not employed by the NYPD, don't you?
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2020, 08:02:27 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2020, 08:12:10 PM by Kansas City Suburbanite for Orman-Clinton-Kelly For Marshall »

Upstate and Long Island are Biden country! As Upstate NY goes, so goes New England and the Upper Midwest.
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,629
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2020, 03:52:54 PM »

New Poll: New York President by Siena Research Institute on 2020-09-29

Summary: D: 61%, R: 29%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2020, 10:55:27 AM »

Biden is not leading by 20 points in upstate. Even Obama '08 only won by 6 points there. With a sample size of 197 it's a worthless metric.
He is not leading in the suburbs by 14 points either. The white NYPD cops hate Biden and Harris there. More like 7 points

You really think cops control how the suburbs vote lol? There may be certain neighborhoods they might change the result in, but overall there won't be too much of an effect. Not to mention they likely voted heavily for Trump in 2016 to begin with.

Those upstate numbers in this poll are incredible. Shows a very tough race for Trump across the upper midwest.
Yes, because the GOP is coordinating with police unions in Rockland, Nassau etc.

You do understand most people in Rockland, Nassau, etc. are not employed by the NYPD, don't you?

Um, a lot of them are. Why do you think that the NYC PBA endorses candidates outside of NYC?

Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2020, 11:53:27 AM »

Biden is not leading by 20 points in upstate. Even Obama '08 only won by 6 points there. With a sample size of 197 it's a worthless metric.
He is not leading in the suburbs by 14 points either. The white NYPD cops hate Biden and Harris there. More like 7 points

You really think cops control how the suburbs vote lol? There may be certain neighborhoods they might change the result in, but overall there won't be too much of an effect. Not to mention they likely voted heavily for Trump in 2016 to begin with.

Those upstate numbers in this poll are incredible. Shows a very tough race for Trump across the upper midwest.
Yes, because the GOP is coordinating with police unions in Rockland, Nassau etc.

You do understand most people in Rockland, Nassau, etc. are not employed by the NYPD, don't you?

Um, a lot of them are. Why do you think that the NYC PBA endorses candidates outside of NYC?


Because they can and they have influence over maybe 2% of the population--which is still a good number. Meanwhile, everyone else (or 98% of the population) couldn't care less what the PBA has to say when they cast their vote.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 12 queries.