KS co/Efficient (R internal): Trump +12

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article246101020.html

The Keep Kansas Great PAC poll found that Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden 53 % to 41 % in the state, which favored Trump by more than 20 percentage points in 2016.

[VAR]

B-b-but muh unreleased GOP internals showed Trump trailing in the state!

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=381340.0

[Skye]

Those are pretty poor numbers for Trump considering it's a Republican internal.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Those are pretty poor numbers for Trump considering it's a Republican internal.

Knock off a few points for that and Trump is leading by high single digits, which seems pretty reasonable given the overall environment.

[Rand]

From a 21% lead in 2016 to a 12% in 2020.

Sad.

[Calthrina950]

Those are pretty poor numbers for Trump considering it's a Republican internal.

Knock off a few points for that and Trump is leading by high single digits, which seems pretty reasonable given the overall environment.

If Trump only wins Kansas by a single-digit margin, that bodes very well for Barbara Bollier, who is certain to run ahead of Biden. Fortunately, Kansas is not Georgia, so Bollier will only need a plurality to win.

[Sir Mohamed]

KS going to swing to the left as a result of suburbn trends, but it ain't be in play.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For the Keep Kansas Great PAC
September 15-16
794 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

[compucomp]

From a 21% lead in 2016 to a 12% in 2020.

Sad.

And a Republican PAC released the results, meaning that they think it's a good result.

[DaleCooper]

From a 21% lead in 2016 to a 12% in 2020.

Sad.

And a Republican PAC released the results, meaning that they think it's a good result.

Right. I was going to say that if this is what the R internal chose to release, then I wouldn't be surprised if there was the occasional outlier internal poll that showed Biden ahead by a point or so.

[Hope For A New Era]

Those are pretty poor numbers for Trump considering it's a Republican internal.

Knock off a few points for that and Trump is leading by high single digits, which seems pretty reasonable given the overall environment.

If Trump only wins Kansas by a single-digit margin, that bodes very well for Barbara Bollier, who is certain to run ahead of Biden. Fortunately, Kansas is not Georgia, so Bollier will only need a plurality to win.

Would not be surprised to see her more than 10 points ahead of him. She really is an exceptional fit for the state, and she gets a hometown boost exactly where it is needed (Johnson County - and she's from an area that has resisted D trends in the county, so that could actually swing some voters her way).

Candidate quality really matters in Kansas. We need an infinite supply of Kellys and Bolliers.

[Calthrina950]

Those are pretty poor numbers for Trump considering it's a Republican internal.

Knock off a few points for that and Trump is leading by high single digits, which seems pretty reasonable given the overall environment.

If Trump only wins Kansas by a single-digit margin, that bodes very well for Barbara Bollier, who is certain to run ahead of Biden. Fortunately, Kansas is not Georgia, so Bollier will only need a plurality to win.

Would not be surprised to see her more than 10 points ahead of him. She really is an exceptional fit for the state, and she gets a hometown boost exactly where it is needed (Johnson County - and she's from an area that has resisted D trends in the county, so that could actually swing some voters her way).

Candidate quality really matters in Kansas. We need an infinite supply of Kellys and Bolliers.

Agree with this. My hunch right now is that Marshall will win a narrow victory-but as I just said above, and have said many times before, Bollier does have a legitimate shot, and Republicans cannot treat this race as a give-me that they will win under any circumstances. Kansas does have a definitive Democratic trend, that cannot be attributed solely to Sam Brownback's failures.

[Badger]

On a broader scope, I fear this might turn into a lesser version of 1982. I do believe the Democrats will flip enough seats to narrowly take back the Senate. But the same time, Justice in 1982 Reagan was supremely unpopular and the Republicans lost 26 seats in the house, they somehow managed to have a net loss of zero in the Senate, primarily because almost every remotely Republican endangered seat across the board managed to just squeaked by.

[KaiserDave]

Trump is (unironically) doomed