PA - ABC/WaPo: Biden+9

[Roll Roons]

"Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with
Clinton’s 55-42 percent there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in
western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was
four years ago. "

Trumps getting a romping in the philly burbs

How are those Philly suburban numbers possible?

Is there something big going on in Bucks County?

Yeah, 69-31 seems a little far fetched to me. 60-40 would be a bit more realistic.

[Alben Barkley]

It's becoming clear that Trump has a white people problem in northern states. Those college level white numbers are something else.

maybe amy barrett is backfiring a bit among non-evangelicals whites. I remember people supporting trump four years ago because he was secular and not part of the religious right or whatever

I have long thought this is part of why Trump did relatively well for a Republican in New England in particular (very irreligious region) in 2016, and why he doesn't seem to be remotely competitive there this year in comparison. He ran as a "different" kind of Republican who was perceived to be less of a conservative firebrand on social issues. But the reality has been quite different. I don't doubt this is affecting him in states like PA as well. Also the national ABC/WaPo poll had him losing by quite a bit with white non-evangelical protestants, a group he won in 2016 but is generally more liberal than evangelicals or (white) Catholics.

[Buzz]

The people being polled are obviously lying about who they are voting for...




/s



Now way to spin this one, not a good poll for the incumbent.  I’ll make sure to bump though in November when it’s off by atleast 6 points lol

[WD]

The people being polled are obviously lying about who they are voting for...




/s



Now way to spin this one, not a good poll for the incumbent.  I’ll make sure to bump though in November when it’s off by atleast 6 points lol

You think Biden will win by 15? Nah, more like 6-7.

[Alben Barkley]

This poll seems to have moved Biden up 1% in the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

[Kuumo]

Can't wait for all the blue avatars to come in here and use their Trump Math to explain why actually this proves Trump is winning New Hampshire and therefore the election and also the poll is trash because did you factor in how much I want him to win?

I can't wait for this guy in my signature to show up.

[Gass3268]

The people being polled are obviously lying about who they are voting for...




/s



Now way to spin this one, not a good poll for the incumbent.  I’ll make sure to bump though in November when it’s off by atleast 6 points lol

You think Biden will win by 15? Nah, more like 6-7.

I legit laughed at this.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1310793576704610304?s=20

[JRP1994]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhpLaIbun2Q

[Orser67]

The shift from 2016 among college-educated whites is especially telling. In the ABC News exit poll in Pennsylvania four years ago, this group divided exactly evenly, 48-48 percent. Among likely voters today, college-educated whites support Biden by 61-38 percent. That includes a 63-35 percent race among college-educated white women. But here, the big shift is among college educated white men. They backed Trump by 56-39 percent in 2016. Today that’s almost exactly reversed, 57-42 percent in Biden’s favor.

Not sure if white, college-educated men will shift quite that much, but from my own experience I find this believable. There are a lot of people here who liked Romney well enough, held their nose and voted for Trump over Clinton, but now can't wait to end the Trump presidency.

[Buzz]

The whites leaving Trump is not going to be anywhere these numbers we are seeing.  He won’t get his 2016 numbers by any stretch, but these polls are off in the amount he is losing.  I’m sure I’ll get clowned but I’m saving everything to get bumped come 11/3.  I will have ALL the receipts.

[cvparty]

inB4 “ooohhhh yeahhhhh”

just in time bro

[WD]

The whites leaving Trump is not going to be anywhere these numbers we are seeing.  He won’t get his 2016 numbers by any stretch, but these polls are off in the amount he is losing.  I’m sure I’ll get clowned but I’m saving everything to get bumped come 11/3.  I will have ALL the receipts.

And you know this.....how? muh polls r rong isn’t an argument.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

OMGGGGGGGG YAAAAAAAAS DADDY JOE MORE PLZ MOOOOOORE GIVE IT TO ME GOOD JUST LIKE THAT DADDY ROBINETTTTTTTTTTTE THAT’S SO FIIIIIIINE DADDY BIDEN OHHHHH YEAHHHHHHH OHHHHHHHH

[Buzz]

The whites leaving Trump is not going to be anywhere these numbers we are seeing.  He won’t get his 2016 numbers by any stretch, but these polls are off in the amount he is losing.  I’m sure I’ll get clowned but I’m saving everything to get bumped come 11/3.  I will have ALL the receipts.

And you know this.....how? muh polls r rong isn’t an argument.

i know this because there’s now way in hell Trump is just winning whites 51-48.  Like I said the receipt was been saved and will be checked 11/3.

[psychprofessor]

The whites leaving Trump is not going to be anywhere these numbers we are seeing.  He won’t get his 2016 numbers by any stretch, but these polls are off in the amount he is losing.  I’m sure I’ll get clowned but I’m saving everything to get bumped come 11/3.  I will have ALL the receipts.

But to win he needs to increase his 2016 numbers.

[Buzz]

The whites leaving Trump is not going to be anywhere these numbers we are seeing.  He won’t get his 2016 numbers by any stretch, but these polls are off in the amount he is losing.  I’m sure I’ll get clowned but I’m saving everything to get bumped come 11/3.  I will have ALL the receipts.

But to win he needs to increase his 2016 numbers.

I never said anything about him winning.  I just said the poll will be off by at least 5-6 points.

[WD]

The whites leaving Trump is not going to be anywhere these numbers we are seeing.  He won’t get his 2016 numbers by any stretch, but these polls are off in the amount he is losing.  I’m sure I’ll get clowned but I’m saving everything to get bumped come 11/3.  I will have ALL the receipts.

And you know this.....how? muh polls r rong isn’t an argument.

i know this because there’s now way in hell Trump is just winning whites 51-48.  Like I said the receipt was been saved and will be checked 11/3.

Once again, you don’t know this. Every poll has shown Biden surging with whites. It’s obvious that Trump is doing poorly with them.

[ucscgaldamez1]

I guess we will see. Not sure if by Nov 3rd we will know the exact margin but may be off by 1-2%. If things dont change much after the 1st debate, I don't see the 2nd (townhall format) or even the 3rd debate changing much....but I also remember Biden looking like he was going to lose the Dem primary and when Dem voters saw Bernie running away with it, they stopped it and felt secure back with Biden, a safer choice. Trump doesn't have that, close to half if not more have already decided they do not want him re-elected and want him gone.

[Oryxslayer]

"Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with
Clinton’s 55-42 percent there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in
western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was
four years ago. "

Trumps getting a romping in the philly burbs

How are those Philly suburban numbers possible?

Is there something big going on in Bucks County?

Yeah, 69-31 seems a little far fetched to me. 60-40 would be a bit more realistic.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1310793576704610304?s=20

Why isn't this hard to believe? if Biden is actually leading by nine, it makes sense he is putting up Wolf margins in some areas, falling a bit behind Wolf in others, and then failing to match him and just keeping level with Clinton in the reddest regions. That's what the crosstabs suggest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA is safe D and so is WI, no path for Trump to win, game over

[Horus]

PA is safe D and so is WI, no path for Trump to win, game over

From your random number generator to God's Atlas account.

[Hammy]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

[Gass3268]

WaPo was among the largest errors in 2016.

Their last poll was Clinton +4 and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Large error?

[NOVA Green]

"Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with
Clinton’s 55-42 percent there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in
western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was
four years ago. "

Trumps getting a romping in the philly burbs

How are those Philly suburban numbers possible?

Is there something big going on in Bucks County?

Yeah, 69-31 seems a little far fetched to me. 60-40 would be a bit more realistic.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1310793576704610304?s=20

Why isn't this hard to believe? if Biden is actually leading by nine, it makes sense he is putting up Wolf margins in some areas, falling a bit behind Wolf in others, and then failing to match him and just keeping level with Clinton in the reddest regions. That's what the crosstabs suggest.

Fair enough...

Still:

1.) 2018 was an off-year election (50k less Total Voters in Bucks County alone for example), and as we know DEMs turned out generally at higher levels in Northern Suburbs than Republicans.

2.) It is true that 2018 was a bit of an indicator of increasing swings among Suburban Northern voters, even in places which did not experience the +12-15% Obama > HRC swings in '16, suggesting that there remains quite a bit of room for DEMs to expand in this type of terrain.

3.) Sure 3rd Party '16 GE PRES voters will likely tend to vote overwhelmingly Biden in '20, with the exception of perhaps of Mormon Voters in places with McMullin on the ballot or write-in ballots accepted.

4.) Still--- Gubernatorial elections tend to have different dynamics than PRES elections so I'm still not totally sold on the Biden 2:1 in the Philly 'burbs (but open to the possibility).

5.) It is entirely plausible that Biden might also be significantly benefiting from basically having lived across the Delaware River, and likely quite well known and respected within the Philly 'burbs, not as "Scranton Joe", but rather as "Delaware Joe"...

6.) Again I could see these types of margins in DelCo and MontCo, or even certainly large swings in Chester County....

Still a 2:1 Biden number in the Philly 'Burbs would also indicate that Biden is winning comfortably in Bucks County, which was basically tied in '12 and '16 and +8% Obama in '08...

Now it could be that because Bucks County didn't really move at all in '16, that once the dam bursts it breaks hard in 2020...

Open to the possibility, but it still seems a bit higher than one might imagine...   (Of course back in '16 many on Atlas were claiming that HRC would win PA by huge margins simply because of suburban Philly, despite early indicators of major drop-offs in NE and Western PA--- so naturally I would caution against assumptions regarding polling numbers from suburban PA simply because of one poll)....