PA - ABC/WaPo: Biden+9

[n1240]

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a32020StateBattlegrounds-PA.pdf

Biden 54
Trump 45

9/21-26, 567 LV

Biden+10 with RV

[riceowl]

ugh my connection froze up! will request deletion

[redjohn]

Likely Biden, and with it the election is likely Biden.

[ajc0918]

inB4 “ooohhhh yeahhhhh”

[JRP1994]

Refer to the image in my signature.

[Alben Barkley]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Gass3268]

This makes me want NYT/Seina to go back out into the field in Arizona.

[Ferguson97]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[libertpaulian]

SCRANTON JOE!

[kwabbit]

With this and the NYT PA poll, Trump's path looks gone. Given that PA is looking like the tipping point, these might have been the two most meaningfully negative polls of the whole cycle and the two best for Biden.

[soundchaser]

That college-educated whites margin is pretty staggering, and a large part of why I think Trump is in deep, deep trouble.

[NOVA Green]

Another high quality polling outfit today appears to confirm the Biden +9% just like the NYT / Siena poll from earlier today....

[Lief 🗽]

Remember when all the pundits were acting like PA was a toss-up far to the right of WI and MI because of a bunch of trash polls? Truly the enemy of the people.

[ajc0918]

Trump’s campaign has no path. If PA isn’t in the cards then how do you get to 270?

[CellarDoor]

Biden well above 50% too.  Excellent.

[Wiz in Wis]

Self Report from 2016

Trump 50
Clinton 47

So... this is a Trump +2 oversample!

[Orser67]

Despite polling over the last couple of months, I've long thought that PA would vote to the left of WI, or at least would vote about in line with it. Obviously I could still be wrong, but it's good to get a little external validation.

[redjohn]

WI, MI, and PA are all extremely likely to go for Biden at this point. Trump literally doesn't have a path without any of these three states. Biden could somehow lose NV and he'd still win.

[Bootes Void]

"Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with
Clinton’s 55-42 percent there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in
western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was
four years ago. "

Trumps getting a romping in the philly burbs

[redjohn]

Self Report from 2016

Trump 50
Clinton 47

So... this is a Trump +2 oversample!

Looking at the rest of the crosstabs, they're also not at all far-fetched. Pretty in line with national polls showing bounces for Biden among white voters. I guess the final result of this election may not be surprising at all.

[psychprofessor]

It's becoming clear that Trump has a white people problem in northern states. Those college level white numbers are something else.

[Alben Barkley]

This is even better than the NYT poll from earlier because it has Biden at 54 with almost no undecideds...

Can't wait for all the blue avatars to come in here and use their Trump Math to explain why actually this proves Trump is winning New Hampshire and therefore the election and also the poll is trash because did you factor in how much I want him to win?

[Bootes Void]

It's becoming clear that Trump has a white people problem in northern states. Those college level white numbers are something else.

maybe amy barrett is backfiring a bit among non-evangelicals whites. I remember people supporting trump four years ago because he was secular and not part of the religious right or whatever

[NOVA Green]

"Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69-31 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with
Clinton’s 55-42 percent there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in
western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was
four years ago. "

Trumps getting a romping in the philly burbs

How are those Philly suburban numbers possible?

Is there something big going on in Bucks County?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]