Florida State Senate elections, 2020

[Heebie Jeebie]

Democrats need to pick up four seats in the state Senate to claim a majority, three to draw even with Republicans.   In Florida, the president of the Senate is elected by the Senate membership to a two-year term. They appoint committees and their chairs and route bills to the committees. They also co-ordinate with the chair of the Committee on Rules and Calendar on the ordering of bills on the calendar.  If Democrats can pick up three seats, they'll have a share of power for the first time in a long time.  What are the chances they can pull it off, and what would be the ramifications if they did?

Edit:  The most competitive races are expected to be the Democratic-held open Senate District 3 in North Florida, the Republican-held open District 9 to the northeast of Orlando, the special election in the Tampa area's open Republican-held District 20, the Democratic-held Senate District 37 in South Florida, and the Republican-held open District 39 in South Florida.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I'm surprised Democrats aren't putting more resources into Florida, what with redistricting looming over the horizon....

[Donerail]

The chances are effectively zero — Burgess has a substantial name recognition and financial advantage in the 20th and should keep it R. Democrats tried to recruit Alex Sink for this seat but bailed when polling showed that even she would start out down, and there's not a serious effort to contest it this year. I am optimistic about Dem odds in the 9th & 39th, but they're not really trying for that third seat.

Fortunately for Democrats, Republicans are not trying to play much offense this year. Democrats usually run well ahead of their numbers in the 3rd (though that may change this year now that Bill Montford is termed out — he carried every county in the district last time around) and the GOP candidate is not particularly serious. Not sure what's going on in the 37th but the GOP doesn't seem to be dedicating too many resources to it either.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats really should have been able to pick up SD-08 and SD-36 in 2018.  All they would have needed is one seat this year to get to a tie.

[Lognog]

Breaking news: Florida Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of  victory

[Donerail]

Breaking news: Florida Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of  victory

"Jaws of victory"? Your third seat here is lean to likely R even in the best case scenario — these are Tampa suburbs, not exactly Northern Virginia

[Orser67]

I thought this was a pretty good article on the state senate elections that broke down each race:

https://mcimaps.com/2020-florida-state-senate-rankings/

TLDR:

A 21-19 split in the senate is viewed as crucial for Democrats when it comes to redistricting – as it leaves the GOP with little room (there is no tie-breaking) and a caucus with its own competing factions. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the gap between a 19th seat and a 20th is still at least a cycle away. The plus side for Democrats is they have few defenses to truly worry about; with 3 and 37 being the lone districts they must at least keep an eye on.