The hard part is making Biden lose in 2016. It's honestly unessasary, just say that for some reason HRC runs in 2020, maybe after Sanders loses for being portrayed as extremest or the establishment pushes someone younger and less experienced or something.
Whatever. Regardless of how Trump wins in 2016, if things go the way that did OTL along with COVID-19 then negative partisanship will even be enough for Her. However, you can kiss regaining OH and IA goodbye, and Trump holding WI or even PA isn't entirely out of the question. ME-2 will also be harder to regain, if far less important.
However, one state Clinton '20 has an advantage in compared to Biden '20 is Florida. We've seen that Clinton's huge win in Miami-Dade has not been repeated by other Democratic candidates and Trump has even managed to hold Biden below her numbers according to a couple of polls. If you combine Miami-Dade's Clinton nostalgia with elderly voters going towards Democrats in the wake of being the most vulnerable victims of COVID, Florida is Lean D.
Clinton's path to victory runs through FL. If she can regain MI and hold MN while winning FL, she could lose all of PA/WI/AZ/NC/NH (for a laugh) and still win the election.
Of course, she's likely to win all of those states anyway.
